NFL Week 6 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

Somehow, we went from preseason projections and season win total conversation to being in Week 6 of the NFL season in what seems like three days. The season is rolling full speed ahead, and we’re at the point where I think the on-field numbers for teams are starting to be pretty representative of who they really are. TSI had a fantastic week projecting the NFL, going 8-6 on sides and 8-6 on totals, so even just blindly betting every position from the model would’ve netted you +2.8 units this week — although, I’d never encourage you to blindly bet my numbers or anyone else’s without forming your own opinion first. Week 6 lines are already moving, so let’s see where we can get ahead of the market this week and get some early-week bets on the card:

 

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New England Patriots (+7; 37.5) vs. Houston Texans 

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Texans are 4-1, and I’ve seen media pundits comparing CJ Stroud to Peyton Manning (and I can’t necessarily say I disagree); meanwhile, the Patriots just lost to the Tua-less Dolphins, so these teams aren’t even in the same stratosphere, right? Right? Well, TSI projects Houston as just a 2.5-point favorite on the road here, and this just seems like one of those “How was that game so close?” type of matchups in the NFL. Believe it or not, the Patriots’ defense, not the Texans’ offense, is the highest-rated unit on the field, per TSI, holding opponents to just 83% of their season averages.  I think New England will be able to muck this game up enough to keep it under the number, in a game that’s probably around 20-17. 

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: New England Patriots +7 (-110) Play to +7 (-125)

Denver Broncos (+3; 35.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers 

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

I’m not sure what got into the Broncos last week, putting up 34 points on division rival Las Vegas as the Davante Adams saga continues in Sin City. Because of this uncharacteristic performance, I think there’s some value in the Under here. TSI projects just 31.5 points in this game, as all four units on the field score and allow no more than 88% of opponents’ averages this season; Denver scores 88% and allows just 70%, while LA scores 71% and allows just 61%. You combine that with the fact neither team scores or allows more than 19.2 points per game to begin with, and that’s a recipe for a really boring game, but one that should stay under the total of 35.5. 

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Under 35.5 (Play to 35)

For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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