NFL Week 7 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

This season has been one of my best in the NFL, but Week 6 was an absolute massacre. Totals, sides, everything got wrecked. I had posted on X about some profitable trends so far in the NFL, and those all got demolished. I don’t keep up with which teams are big public plays, but I imagine those plays did well this weekend. These weeks certainly happen and place more emphasis on managing your bankroll. Don’t get too high, don’t get too low, just stay the course, and it’ll work out in the long run. NFL Week 7 lines are on the move, so let’s see where we can grab some early value on the slate:

 

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns (+5; 43)

As a Bengals fan, I can tell you that no matter how good or bad the Browns are, Cincinnati will find a way to struggle with – and often lose to – Cleveland. The Bengals’ defense has been dreadful this season, and the Browns’ fan base seems pretty fed up with the Deshaun Watson-led offense, so this might just be what the doctor ordered for them. TSI projects the Bengals -2.5 on the road, so I like getting above 3 here with Cleveland. Over the last five meetings, Cleveland has averaged a 20-17 win against the Bengals, despite the average point spread being Cincinnati -2 in those games. Give me the home dog in a division rivalry game.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +5 (Play to +4)

NY Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5; 36.5) 

Sticking with AFC North home dogs here, I project this game as a pick ‘em, and I won’t be surprised if the game closes at that or even slightly in favor of Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ defense is up to #3 in the TSI defensive ratings, while the Jets’ offense is at #20. On the other side of this matchup, the Steelers’ offense is just 22nd, and the Jets’ defense is fifth. The Steelers have covered the spread by an average of 4 ppg, while the Jets have failed to cover by 1.5 ppg so far this season, indicating the market hasn’t been able to price these teams properly. I’d lean Under in this game, but I think these teams are pretty much even, so I’ll take the home team and the points here.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Steelers +1.5 (Play to +1)

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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