Week 6 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 7. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Los Angeles Rams (-3, 44.5) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
This early 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff on Sunday will be played overseas at Wembley Stadium in London, England.
The Rams (4-2) just took down the Ravens 17-3 last week, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Jaguars (4-2) just fell to the Seahawks 20-12, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have jumped on the Jaguars plus the points, dropping Jacksonville from +3.5 to +3. In addition, most of the market is juicing up Jaguars +3 (-115), signaling further liability on Jacksonville. Some shops are even inching down to +2.5.
At DraftKings, the Jaguars are taking in 62% of spread bets and 87% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy smart money.
Jacksonville has buy-low value as a dog off a loss who failed to cover the previous week against a sell-high favorite who won and covered the previous week.
Dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 15-11 ATS (58%) with a 10% ROI this season. If they are getting 3-points or more, they improve to 13-7 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI.
The Rams could miss star WR Puka Nacua, who suffered an ankle injury in last week’s game against the Ravens and is officially listed as questionable.
Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 44.5.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 56% of bets and 88% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 67% of bets and a whopping 99% of dollars. Both books are showing a sharp wiseguy bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3, 40)
The Dolphins (1-5) just came up short against the Chargers 29-27 but managed to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Browns (1-5) just fell to the Steelers 23-9, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a 2-point home favorite.
The public sees two bad teams and doesn’t know whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this split ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Browns move up from -2 to -3.
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Browns at home.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 51% of spread bets but 83% of spread dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 75% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Those looking to follow the sharp Cleveland move but also mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could instead target the Browns on the moneyline at roughly -150.
At DraftKings, the Browns are receiving 42% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers backing Cleveland to earn a straight up victory at home.
Tua Tagovailoa is just 1-7 straight up in his last 8 road games.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 41.5 to 40, with some shops inching down to 39.5.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 67% of bets and 97% of dollars.
Weather could play a big factor here, as the forecast calls for low 60s with 15 MPH winds and possibly some rain.
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5, 48.5)
The Colts (5-1) just outlasted the Cardinals 31-27 but failed to cover as 8.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Chargers (4-2) just fended off the Dolphins 29-27 but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 69% of spreads bets at DraftKings are backing the Colts.
However, despite Indianapolis receiving such lopsided support we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Los Angeles -1 to -1.5.
Why would the oddsmakers hand out a better price to the public when they’re already backing Indianapolis to begin with? Because respected smart money has gotten down on the unpopular home chalk, triggering sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Chargers.
The Chargers are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the week as they are taking in less than one-third of tickets in one of the most heavily bet late afternoon games.
At Circa, Los Angeles is receiving 38% of spread bets but 91% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the Vegas smart money backing the home team.
The Chargers have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (48.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could also elect to play Los Angeles on the moneyline at -130.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 98-38 (72%) straight up with an 8% ROI since 2022.
