Early NFL Week 8 Best Bets and Predictions from Mike Somich:

After a relatively injury-free stretch in the NFL, we saw an onslaught of very important players head to the sidelines in Week 7. Each week, I generally head this portion of the article with a general recap or specific point I want to highlight, but this week let’s change it up. Let’s talk about injury handicapping and its relative value to betting.

First off, in the NFL, other than quarterbacks, no player is worth more than 1.5 points to the spread. When you have multiple players injured at the same position, commonly called cluster injuries, that can compound. The downgrade to a team is greater than the total of the two players since you are forced to drop deeper into the depth chart to replace both players.

 

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The 49ers are dealing with this issue at wide receiver. While Deebo Samuel and Brandon Ayiuk are worth about 0.5 points each, when you take them both out and combine that with the potential of not having Jauan Jennings in the lineup as well, the total loss is closer to two full points.

Not every return from injury is created equally either. We saw Mike Evans return from a hamstring issue entering Monday night’s game. If you listened to “Ready, Set, Bet” with Matt Brown and me this weekend, you heard us discussing the likelihood that it would be tough for Evans to play to his full and healthy self and there was a serious chance for re-injury. That caused both of us to play Under in yards and receptions. Sure enough, Evans went down midway through the second quarter and we both cashed. It’s important to note what type of injuries players are returning from when you are looking for prop angles and the value of said player to the line.

As opposed to a hamstring or other muscle issues, a concussion is a relatively good injury to return from. Don’t get me wrong, concussions are bad, but from a betting perspective, it’s less likely that a player leaves a game with a concussion their first week back unlike an ankle, quad or hamstring issue. Additionally, we have not seen a noted drop-off in play the first couple of weeks back when a player returns from a concussion issue like we have with lower-body injuries.

And that brings me Tua Tagovailoa. Now no matter how you (or I) feel about Tua playing, this is a betting article, so it is going to simply come from an analytical standpoint. You have to look at the Miami offense in its totality to properly account for the return to play. For example, when Tyler Huntley took over at quarterback, I not only downgraded the position of QB but wide receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as well. With the return of Tua, both have to get upgraded again. Simply put, Miami can now run its offense. Most moves from a starting QB to a backup are between three and seven. I have this Miami offense upgraded close to nine points with Tagovailoa’s return. Rust may be an issue since it has been more than a week, but I would expect this Miami offense, which is very healthy otherwise, to be similar to what we saw with Tua the last two years.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs          

I’m going to make this section very simple. These should be your top two power-rated teams and we saw why this weekend with both winning as short dogs.

The Lions are stacked offensively and the Jared Goff MVP train has officially left the station (hopefully you have the 40-1 price I was pounding the table for in the offseason). The defense still needs to improve, but this offense is going to be a problem for any team it plays.

The Chiefs are, well, the Chiefs. It may not look pretty on the offensive side, but they do a great job staying out of long yardage situations, and when the game is on the line, you have Patrick Mahomes. Defensively, they are not the top-5 unit they were last year, but they are getting better week to week.

Move them down: New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers

Now, let’s highlight the bad. There is a clear bottom two teams — the Pats and Panthers. Some may want to add the Titans or Raiders to this group, but there is a real gap between those teams. The Pats and Panthers do seem like interesting Over teams the rest of the way assuming they are healthy on offense and it’s Drake Maye and Andy Dalton at the helm.

Early Week 8 NFL Best Bet:

Let’s revisit the top portion of this article and get in on the Dolphins now. I have this game Miami -5 with Arizona coming off the short week and the upgrades to the offense for Miami. It is sitting at the key number of 3 right now, but there has been some juice movement toward 3.5, so let’s lock it in at the key of 3.

Week 8 NFL Best Bet: Dolphins -3

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