NFL Week 8 Picks from the T Shoe Index:

The NFL is one of the most difficult sports to do ratings and projections for – probably second to the NBA – due to the inevitability of impactful injuries that both require an adjustment for the week ahead. Also, because those adjustments, or lack thereof in some cases, can lead to really muddy data down the road, you don’t know what’s real and what’s noise. 

That being the case, the last two weeks have been pretty bad in terms of betting NFL sides for me. Totals have been ok, but those are a little more predictable than spreads, in my opinion. But, as always, I won’t sit idly by and continue to take a beating; I’ve gotten up off the mat and dove into the data even deeper than usual and have made necessary adjustments to this week’s ratings and projections to hopefully get things headed back in the right direction. Let’s see where these newly-adjusted ratings can help us find some value early in these NFL Week 8 best bets:

 

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Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5; 46) 

This line made me do a double-check on my ratings and on the injury report; both came back indicating this line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, based on the data I value. It seems the market agrees, as we’re seeing this line start to come down to 2 and even 1.5 at some spots. TSI projects the Bucs as 4-point favorites in this game, but I think the line might close closer to a pick, or maybe Bucs -1. Baker Mayfield is playing excellent football right now, and played well enough for them to beat the vaunted Ravens on Monday night, if not for Tampa giving up 41 points. They take on the Falcons, who are coming off a beating at the hands of the Seahawks. I have Tampa Bay rated better on both sides of the ball, and I think they’re going to cover and win the game outright. Grab the +2.5 while we can.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (Play to pick ‘em)

Indianapolis Colts (+6; 46.5) vs. Houston Texans

Anthony Richardson is expected to start for the Indianapolis Colts this week as they take on division rival Houston on the road. It’s a huge game for the AFC South standings since these teams sit atop the division and are separated by just a game. TSI indicates this line should be more like 3.5, especially when you factor in Richardson. Houston is coming off a gut-wrenching loss on a late-game field goal against the Packers, while the Colts are coming off a close win against the Tua-less Dolphins. These teams are actually pretty similar in their ratings, with Houston having a small offensive edge but Indianapolis having a slight defensive edge. I think Houston is the sexier team here from a perception standpoint, but the data indicates 6 is too many points, so I’m taking the road dog. 

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +6, Play to +4.5

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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