Week 8 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 9. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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Chicago Bears (-3, 51.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bears (4-3) just fell to the Ravens 30-16 last week, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (3-5) just came up short against the Jets 39-38, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em.
The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen the Bears get steamed up from a road pick’em to a 3-point road favorite.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the spread one way or the other. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the Bears on the road.
At DraftKings, the Bears are taking in 50% of spread bets but 72% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating an undecided public but also respected smart money in favor of Chicago.
Favorites off a loss, like the Bears here, are 29-14 ATS (67%) with a 29% ROI this season. Chicago has additional betting system value as a short favorite in a high total game (51.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the chalk to cover the small price.
Those looking to follow the sharp Chicago move but also gain some added protection in the event of a close game could consider Chicago on the moneyline at -155.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 17-5 (77%) straight up with a 13% ROI this season and 108-46 (70%) straight up with a 4% ROI since 2023.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-1.5, 39.5)
The Broncos (6-2) just destroyed the Cowboys 44-24, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Texans (3-4) just held off the 49ers 26-15, covering as 3-point home favorites.
This line opened with the Broncos listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 78% of spread bets are backing Denver.
However, despite Denver receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the line completely flip to Texans -1.5 at home. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Houston.
At DraftKings, the Texans are only receiving 22% of spread bets but 48% of spread dollars. At Circa, Houston is taking in 33% of spread bets but 41% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home chalk.
Sharps have also looked for some cushion by taking Houston on the moneyline (-125), as the Texans are receiving only 20% of moneyline bets but 37% of moneyline dollars.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the non-division home favorite is 73-24 (75%) straight up with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Home favorites are 53-21 (72%) straight up with a 3% ROI this season. If they also made the playoffs last season, home favorites improve to 32-10 (76%) straight up with a 6% ROI this season.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2, 52.5) at Buffalo Bills
The Chiefs (5-3) just brushed aside the Commanders 28-7, covering as 10.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bills (5-2) just dominated the Panthers 40-9, easily covering as 7-point road favorites.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1-point road favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched heavyweights and doesn’t know which way to go.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket count at DraftKings we’ve seen the Chiefs creep up from -1 to -2. This signals smart money laying the short chalk with Kansas City despite the public indecision.
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are receiving 50% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kansas City is taking in 83% of spread bets but a whopping 99% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros out in Vegas backing the road favorite Chiefs.
Sharps have also targeted Kansas City on the moneyline at -130.
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are taking in only 39% of moneyline bets but a whopping 67% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a straight up Chiefs win.
Kansas City has correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (52.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the small number.
Patrick Mahomes is 38-10 (79%) straight up with an 11% ROI as a road favorite in his regular season career.
