Early Super Bowl Best Bets
And then there were two! We’ve made it through another NFL season with just the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs left standing. This game has all the makings of a classic. In my power rankings, we will get the highest-rated team, the 49ers, taking on T-2, the Chiefs, with storyline abound. Let’s dive into the side and total and look at the early movement to see if we can find some early Super Bowl best bets.
49ers (-2) vs Chiefs
I’ve mentioned this on air throughout the season, but it’s worth reiterating now, I have been higher on the Chiefs than the market for over two months now, so it’s no surprise that I made the 49ers a shorter favorite than the open. I have San Francisco as a one-point favorite currently on a neutral field. Now, that number does not consider anything around situational spot, injuries, or other outside factors.
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We saw this open at 49ers -2.5, and money immediately poured in on the Chiefs to move the number to -1. While some of that money is going to be public, it’s important to note that most people betting the Super Bowl two weeks out will be considered professional or sharp. Once this hit -1, and the moneyline got as low as -118, we saw buyback on San Francisco to push this number back out to -2.
I put in a Chiefs +2.5 ticket right at open for a variety of reasons. First and foremost, I disagreed with that number. As I mentioned above, I made it 1 without any additional factors. Those factors are playing into the Chiefs, not the 49ers, in this spot. The Chiefs’ experience cannot be taken lightly across the board, but they hold a massive edge in two important categories, coaching and quarterback. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo given extra time to dissect the 49ers offense and defense is a scary thought. Spagnuolo’s game plan against Baltimore was phenomenal. The Chiefs’ ability to get pressure, but limit Lamar’s ability to scramble was next level. While they face a new test against the explosive and diverse 49ers offense, the Chiefs have the coaching and players to match them.
The other reason I bet this at +2.5 was mechanical. I do not think we will get back to that number before kickoff. I understand the public money will come in on the Chiefs in waves up until kickoff, so to see early, sharper action on KC means there will most likely never be a 3 available.
Total: 47, opened 48
The drop in the total is extremely telling in what bettors are expecting in this game. While the move was not immediate, it’s been consistently ticking lower click by click. I am not a huge betting splits guy, but the action on the total is telling. As I write this, about 66% of the money and bets are on the Over, yet we have moved lower. That just screams that the more respected bets have been placed to Under, and I agree with them.
I made this game 46.5, so we are very close to the current number available. Much of that is because of the Chiefs. They have lacked explosive plays this season and will generally score on longer drives. I expect more of the same here, and when you team that up with a good defense, it’s tough to get over 48 points in a game. While the Chiefs have trended Under most of the season, it’s been more dramatic lately with five of the last six going Under. They do sport one of the most astounding trends of the year as well, going 19-1 to the Under in the fourth quarter and 18-2 to the Under in the second half this year.
Conversely, the 49ers have been an Over team later in the season, especially as the defense has fallen off over the last month and a half of the season. They have played to the Over in six of the last nine (and it really should have been seven of nine since the Green Bay game was a dead Over pace), and their ability to create explosive plays will dictate how this lands.
Early Super Bowl Best Bets: Chiefs +2.5 (would still play at +2), Teaser Chiefs +8.5 / u54 (would still play at +8/u53)
