Early Super Bowl LIX Player Props from Mike Somich:

Props have become one of my favorite ways to bet on NFL games because you can find larger edges, especially when you are down to just one game where the side and total have been massaged for months. When playing these props, one of the general rules is to play the Overs early and the Unders late, specifically when targeting star players. Most of the time, they will be bet up when the public starts rolling in with bets Super Bowl weekend. Here are a couple of my favorite early plays!

 

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Xavier Worthy Over 4.5 Rush Yards

Shop this number around looking to get 4.5 or less. As I am writing this, BetMGM is 4.5, Caesars is 6.5 and DraftKings is 5.5. To be clear, I like Over all those numbers, but 5 has been an important marker for this season because he has landed on that exact number in four games.

Two key stats support this play. First Andy Reid has now called a run play for a non-running back or quarterback in 20 consecutive playoff games. It’s highly likely that it will be 21 straight games after the Super Bowl and Worthy is likely to get that carry. Secondly, in the 18 Chiefs games this season, excluding the final week against Denver, Worthy has gotten at least one carry in 15 of those games and at least two carries in six of them. Four of those six multi-carry games have come in the last five weeks. He has eclipsed the 5-yard mark in 13 of those 18 games. Let’s jump on the Over.

Patrick Mahomes Over 23.5 Completions

Unlike past years, the Chiefs do not have a consistent run game to lean on and the Eagles have a stout front seven that should keep Kansas City in check on the ground. That means Mahomes will have to attack through the air against a two-high-safety look while the Eagles rush their front four. We have seen Mahomes and Reid prepare against these defenses for years and it has consistently meant a dink-and-dunk style of offense heavy on short passes.

Shorter passes should lead to a higher completion percentage and a likelihood that Mahomes goes Over this number.

Isiah Pacheco Under 9.5 Longest Rush

Let’s just call it the way it is. Pacheco is not close to 100% after suffering a knee injury early in the season. He recorded just five carries in both playoff games and has clearly become the No. 2 in the Chiefs backfield behind Kareem Hunt. He has a run of 10+ yards in just three of the nine games he has played in this season and will face a tough defense in the Super Bowl with limited run opportunities.

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