Week 10 NFL best bets and predictions
Each week, I’ll be looking through Sunday’s NFL games to try and feed my readers three winners. That continues with the three best bets I have for the Week 10 slate. Keep reading to find out what I have and make sure you also check out what my talented VSiN colleagues are playing. Those plays, along with all of our NFL content for the week, are available at our Week 10 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page.
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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots – Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt, Germany
I’m usually quick to take the Under on these international games, but I think this one has the potential to be somewhat high scoring. This Colts team has scored at least 27 points in each of the last three weeks, and they now get a crack at a Patriots defense that is 23rd in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass. That’s good news for Gardner Minshew and an Indianapolis passing game that can be pretty explosive. I’m not sure the Patriots will be able to cover Michael Pittman Jr. with the group of corners they’re being forced to play right now. And Indianapolis’ running game should be rather effective here, even with New England being solid against the run. The Colts no longer have an elite offensive line, but they’re solid when it comes to run blocking and both Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss should find some holes here.
I also believe the Patriots will be able to turn in a solid offensive performance here. Before allowing just 13 points to Bryce Young and a miserable Carolina Panthers offense last week, Indianapolis had allowed an average of 38.0 points per game in its previous three games. The Colts were especially terrible when it came to stopping the run, so this could be a big week for Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. And when the Patriots have things going on the ground, Mac Jones’ job gets a lot easier through the air. So, I can see him having a big game as well.
Overall, I can see that these aren’t the most exciting offensive teams in the world, but this is more of a bet against the defenses. And it doesn’t hurt that the Over has hit in six of the nine games the Colts have played this year.
Bet: Over 42.5 (-114 – Play to 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals
The Falcons have gone Over the total in each of their last two games. Atlanta gave up 28 points in a loss to Will Levis and the Tennessee Titans two weeks ago, and the team followed it up by giving up 31 points to Josh Dobbs and the Minnesota Vikings. Now, this Falcons defense has to try and slow down an offense that should be fired up by the return of Kyler Murray. I’m not sure how much Murray will be willing to use his legs coming off a torn ACL, but I think he’s a much better passer than anybody the Cardinals have had under center this year. And Arizona’s talent at the skill positions isn’t as bad as you might think. So, I think the Cardinals will have no trouble putting up points in this game.
The Falcons should also do their part to help Over bettors here, as they have looked better in the passing game with Taylor Heinicke under center. Atlanta now faces an Arizona team that is 31st in the league in Defensive DVOA and has been equally as bad against the run and the pass. That means Heinicke should find some success here, but you’ll also see some big runs out of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
The Over is also 3-0-1 in the four home games that the Cardinals have played. I’m expecting some fireworks in this one, even if it’s not a game a lot of people will be interested in.
Bet: Over 43 (-110 – Play to 43.5)
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks
The Commanders have had some low points this season, but they’re coming off a 20-17 win as 3-point road underdogs against the Patriots last week. This Washington team is now 2-1-1 against the spread in its last four games, and I don’t see any reason the Commanders can’t keep things close against the Seahawks. Seattle has actually struggled to cover spreads recently, as the team is 1-3 ATS over the last four weeks.
The Seahawks looked miserable in a 37-3 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week, and they just don’t have many decisive wins on their resume this year. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Seattle’s passing game is a shell of what it was last year. After a season in which Geno Smith threw for 4,282 yards with 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, the 33-year-old has thrown for just 1,802 yards with nine touchdowns and seven picks in eight games this year. Smith’s passer rating is also down from 100.9 in 2022 to 86.4 this season. This Commanders team is actually surprisingly good against the run on defense, so Smith will need to make some big throws in this game. And I’m not quite sure I trust him to do it — at least to the extent he’d need to in order to win this game by a touchdown or more.
Seattle also happens to be just 19th in the league in Defensive DVOA this year, so I don’t see any reason Sam Howell and Washington won’t be able to move the ball here. Howell has now thrown for at least 300 yards in back-to-back games, and he is starting to look very comfortable under center.
This just feels like a lot of points for the Seahawks to be laying given what we’ve seen recently. And the Commanders are 10-8-2 ATS when playing teams with winning records under Ron Rivera. They get up for games like these.
Bet: Commanders +6.5 (-110 – Play to +6)
Added Plays
Raiders +1 (-110) vs. Jets – Click here for reasoning
Broncos +7.5 (-115) vs. Bills – Click here for reasoning
Best Bets Record: 19-14 (+3.98 units)
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