It’s time for Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 11 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 11 NFL best bets and Week 11 NFL predictions.

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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 pm ET

The Over is 9-1 in the 10 games the Ravens have played this season. Baltimore has now played six games in a row with at least 51 total points scored, and it’s really not that surprising. The Ravens are first in the league in EPA per play (0.216), with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry absolutely terrorizing opposing defenses. Baltimore also happens to be just 27th in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.073), and it’s the passing defense that is a nightmare. The Ravens are 30th in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.189). An explosive offense and a bad defense makes for a dream Over team. And I don’t see any reason to go away from it here.

I know people will be concerned about the Ravens going against a good Steelers defense, but Pittsburgh’s secondary is a little overrated. It’s very possible to throw on this team, and we have seen that in quite a few games this season. That said, I don’t see Baltimore’s offense struggling to put up points here. And I also love Russell Wilson and the Steelers passing game to find success against this disastrous Ravens secondary.

I thought about the idea of taking Baltimore in this game, as I like the Ravens to get a few extra stops when it matters most. And a lot of that has to do with the overall edge in talent Baltimore has on offense. However, I feel much better about this being a game in which both defenses struggle to get off the field. I’m expecting a lot of points and would rather not worry about the winner.

Bet: Over 48.5 (-106 – 1.5 units)

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos – 4:05 pm ET

The Broncos have lost two games in a row, but those came against the Ravens and Chiefs. And Denver had a real shot at beating Kansas City. So, while the Broncos are just 5-5 and might seem like the inferior team, I actually love Denver to bounce back in this spot. It’s just hard to overlook the fact that the Broncos are fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.090). This secondary has been stellar all year, so Vance Joseph should be trusted to get his guys ready for Kirk Cousins and the Falcons passing attack. And it’s hard to worry too much about how Denver will hold up against the Atlanta running game. While the Broncos are tremendous against the pass, they’re also 10th in the league in Rush EPA per allowed (-0.114).

The Falcons are also just miserable on the defensive side of the ball, as they’re 22nd in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.029). With that in mind, I like Sean Payton and this Denver offense to move the ball here. Bo Nix has been getting better and better by the week, and Courtland Sutton looks like a stud again. That duo should give Atlanta some trouble, and the Broncos running game should also get going here.

Realistically, the best unit on the field in this game will be the Denver defense, by far. And the Broncos are much closer to the Falcons offensively than Atlanta is to Denver defensively.

The Broncos are also 2-0 both straight-up and against the spread versus NFC South opponents under Payton. That makes sense given his history with the Saints. Also, Denver is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS when coming off a game in which the team scored 14 or fewer in its previous game. This offense should get back on track after a tough showing against Kansas City.

Bet: Broncos -2.5 (-108 – 1.5 units)

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills – 4:25 pm ET

I hate betting against the Chiefs. I feel like a moron every single time I do it, and it generally ends pretty poorly. Of course, I know that Patrick Mahomes is 12-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career, and the Chiefs have won 11 of those games outright. However, there are situations in which you simply have to do it. I reluctantly took Denver with the points last week and the Broncos nearly won that game outright. And this is another game in which I feel it’s necessary to go the other way.

This Kansas City team wants to run the football, but Buffalo is capable of taking that away. The Bills have a Rush EPA per play allowed of -0.143, which is the eighth-best mark in the league. And while Mahomes is already one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, do you think this passing game is capable of shredding an average Buffalo secondary? The Chiefs are just barely inside the Top 10 in Dropback EPA per play (0.139), and Mahomes has thrown for one or fewer touchdown passes in five of the nine games the Chiefs have played this year. It’s also a shaky group of pass-catchers right now.

The Bills should be a lot more trustworthy offensively here. Buffalo is third in the league in EPA per play (0.160) this season, and the Bills are also third in Dropback EPA per play (0.242) and second in Rush EPA per play (0.038). Buffalo can move the ball on the ground or through the air, making life very difficult on opposing defenses. And offensive coordinator Joe Brady will be creative in the ways he uses both Josh Allen and James Cook here. Allen’s legs should be a big factor in this one, and Cook will probably be utilized as a receiver out of the backfield. Once Brady gets the Chiefs off guard, then the Bills can really get rolling.

It’s also just very difficult to win games in Buffalo. And that’s been especially true with Sean McDermott on the sidelines. The Bills are 44-9 SU as home favorites under McDermott, and they’re also 29-18 SU and 27-17-3 in games with lines of +3 to -3 under him. And while I am laying points in this game, I feel good about this game not being decided by two or fewer. I’m hesitant to say that this is essentially a pick’em because I know it isn’t. But I’d be surprised if it comes down to a field goal. And by the way, Harrison Butker is out for Kansas City in this one. That’s a bigger loss than people might think.

Bet: Bills -2 (-110 – 2 units)

Additional Week 11 Best Bets

7PT TEASER: Browns +7.5 vs. Saints & Dolphins -0.5 vs. Raiders (-120 – 1.5 units)
Chargers ML (-122 – 2 units) vs. Bengals – Click here for my Bengals vs. Chargers Sunday Night Football preview!
7PT TEASER: Texans -0.5 vs. Cowboys & Cardinals +8.5 vs. Seahawks in Week 12 (-150 – 1.5 units)

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2024 Record: 35-34 (-2.95 units)

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