It’s time for Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 15 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 15 NFL best bets and Week 15 NFL predictions.

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Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers – 1:00 pm ET

Sharps are seemingly all over the Panthers in this one, and I generally like to join them. However, it’s really hard not to see value in backing Dallas. Since Micah Parsons returned to action, the Cowboys are 10th in the NFL EPA per play allowed (-0.008). And it’s some great passing defense that has been the cause of that. Over the last five weeks, the Cowboys are sixth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.043). With that in mind, Dallas should be able to make Bryce Young a little uncomfortable here. Young has been playing a lot better under center lately, but this is still an offense that is low in pass-catching weapons. Adam Thielen has been stellar for Carolina, but Dallas has guys that can cover him. The only thing I’m a little worried about is Chuba Hubbard running wild on a shaky Cowboys defensive front. But everybody thought Chase Brown was going to go crazy against Dallas last week. Cincinnati only rushed for 72 yards on 17 attempts.

As far as the Cowboys offense goes, this team has been solid with Cooper Rush under center. The Cowboys have a Dropback EPA per play of 0.043 over the last three weeks. They should be able to move the ball through the air against this Panthers secondary. CeeDee Lamb is going to be open consistently. And Carolina is one of the only teams in the NFL that is as bad against the run as Dallas is. So, the Cowboys should be able to find some between-the-tackles success here.

Realistically, I understand why people are down on Dallas. The Cowboys are heading nowhere fast. But they are still a better team than the Panthers, and I give them a slightly better shot than 50-50 that they’ll win this game. So, I’ll happily take these plus-money odds. Dallas is 9-1 straight-up when facing teams with winning percentages of 25.0% or worse under Mike McCarthy.

Bet: Cowboys ML (+130 – 1.5 units)

Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants – 1:00 pm ET

I thought about taking the Over in this game, but I’m just rolling with the Ravens. This is obviously a gigantic number, but do you trust New York to slow down Baltimore? The Giants are just 23rd in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.047) this year. They’re also 23rd in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.118), and that’s what’s most concerning here. While the Giants are better against the run than the pass, they aren’t going to be able to slow down Derrick Henry. And Lamar Jackson should be able to shred New York through the air. Before facing a lousy Saints team, the Giants had allowed at least 27 points in back-to-back games. They had also done so in four of their previous six games. And none of the offenses they faced are as good as this Baltimore one. While the Ravens have slowed down a bit lately, they’re second in the NFL in EPA per play (0.181).

I also just don’t have a lot of faith in Tommy DeVito playing well against Baltimore. This Ravens team is coming off a bye week, so the coaching staff has had some time to try and get things right. Baltimore had also been looking a bit better defensively heading into the bye, giving up 24 or fewer points in four its past five games. New York could also be missing some pieces along the offensive line.

Bet: Ravens -16 (-108)

Additional Week 15 Best Bets

49ers ML (-135 – 2 units) vs. Rams – Click here for my Rams vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football betting preview!
Deebo Samuel Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Rams – Click here for my Rams vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football betting preview!

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2024 Record: 49-46 (-1.27 units)

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