It’s time for Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 17 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 17 NFL best bets and Week 17 NFL predictions.

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Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints – 1:00 pm ET

The Raiders scored 19 points in a win over the Jaguars last week. And while it was nice that Las Vegas was able to get in the win column, it wasn’t exactly an inspiring offensive performance against a Jacksonville team that is last in the league in EPA per play allowed. However, New Orleans was even worse in Week 16. The Saints didn’t score a single point against the Packers on Monday night, making the Under extremely enticing in Week 17.

Only Cleveland is worse than Las Vegas when it comes to EPA per play, and a Derek Carr-less New Orleans team isn’t much better. The Saints also happen to be without Alvin Kamara. These are just two teams that have very little talent on offense, and neither one of them has some type of elaborate offensive scheme to overcome that.

It’s just difficult to imagine this being anything but an ugly, low-scoring affair. The Under has hit in four consecutive Raiders games, and it has also hit in four straight Saints games. The Under is also 5-1 in the six games that New Orleans has played under Darren Rizzi.

Our analytics guru Steve Makinen has a projection of Saints 21.9 – Raiders 16.8 on this game.

Bet: Under 40 (-110)

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings – 4:25 pm ET

Minnesota has won eight games in a row. The Vikings are the hottest team in football right now, and Sam Darnold has been playing out of his mind lately. Darnold started the season well, but he cooled off a bit. Naturally, many thought he was coming back down to earth. But Darnold has thrown for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last six games. He has also had a Passer Rating of at least 107.0 in five of his last six games. Minnesota is now very much alive in the NFC North race, as the team is 13-2 and tied with Detroit. But the Vikings really need to win out, and this meeting with the Packers will be challenging. But given the way Darnold is playing, I don’t see any reason Minnesota can’t win this at home.

Even though the Vikings beat the Packers at Lambeau earlier in the year, it would have been hard to say that Darnold could hold his own against Love in a potential shootout. However, at this point in the season, there’s really nothing between the two. If anything, Darnold is playing a bit better right now, and he should be more comfortable at home. Love has had his struggles away from Green Bay, which evens the playing field and potentially tilts things in favor of Darnold. That’s big because Minnesota had an extra day of rest, and the team also has a better defense. The Vikings are second in the NFL in Rush EPA per play allowed, so they should be able to slow down Josh Jacobs. And if they slow down Jacobs, defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ mix of coverages will get to Love eventually.

Minnesota is also 12-4 straight-up as a home favorite under Kevin O’Connell. And Green Bay is just 7-8 SU when facing teams with winning percentages of 75.0% or better under Matt LaFleur. Also, under LaFleur, the Packers are 4-6 SU when facing a team that beat them as a favorite earlier in the season.

Bet: Vikings ML (-116 – 1.5 units)

Additional Week 17 Best Bets

Steelers ML (+126) vs. Chiefs – Click here for my Steelers vs. Chiefs Christmas Day Betting betting preview!
PARLAY: Rams ML vs. Cardinals & Buccaneers ML vs. Panthers (-145 – 1.5 units)

I’ll likely add more best bets as I turn my attention to the standalone Saturday games and primetime games later in the week.

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2024 Record: 58-53-1 (-0.95 units)

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