Week 7 NFL best bets and predictions
Each week, I’ll be looking through Sunday’s NFL games to try and feed my readers three winners. And that continues with the three best bets I have for the Week 7 slate, which includes a pick on a meeting between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. I also have a play on an exciting battle between the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions. Keep reading to find out what I have and make sure you also check out what my talented VSiN colleagues are playing. Those plays, along with all of our NFL content for the week, are available at our Week 7 NFL Bet Hub. You can also get all of our picks for the week on the Pro Picks page.
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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
The Bills have won four of their last five games, but their last two performances have been unconvincing. Buffalo lost as a 5-point favorite against the Jacksonville Jaguars in London two weeks ago. Then, the Bills looked extremely flat in a 14-9 win over the New York Giants last week. Buffalo was a 15.5-point favorite in that game, but New York was a missed pass interference call in the end zone away from winning that one outright. Now, the Bills must go on the road and face a Patriots team that I still believe is better than its record.
There’s no denying that Mac Jones and this New England offense need to get things going soon, and the Pats seem ready to yank the third-year signal caller at any given moment. But New England is still a good enough defensive team to keep games close — especially at Gillette Stadium. The Pats aren’t quite playing up to last year’s standards on that side of the ball, but they’re still a top-15 team in Defensive DVOA. And they’re eighth when it comes to defending the run, which is crucial in a matchup like this. Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the world, but he’s at his best when he’s playing off an effective run game. I’m not sure Buffalo will be able to establish James Cook here.
It’s also just hard to ignore that the Bills defense didn’t look great against the Jaguars or Giants. And New York was playing Tyrod Taylor in that game last week. The Giants only scored nine points in that one, but two goal line stands by the Bills defense significantly changed the outcome there. The reality is that both offenses had little trouble marching down the field against Buffalo, and that has to give New England offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien a little faith when coming up with a plan for this game.
I also imagine that the Bills are dealing with some fatigue coming into this game. They didn’t have a bye week after their game in London, and that’s a spot in the schedule that has wiped teams out in the past. The Bills also happen to be playing in the Thursday Night Football game in Week 8, so this also feels like something of a trap spot. The fact that it’s supposed to be rainy and windy also makes it harder to believe that Buffalo will be able to separate here.
Bet: Patriots +8.5 (-105 – Play to +8)
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens
The Lions and Ravens are both very good defensive teams, with Detroit being second in Defensive DVOA and Baltimore right behind in third. However, the Lions also happen to be fourth in the league in Offensive DVOA, and Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has proven that he is capable of beating almost any defensive scheme. With that in mind, I expect the Lions offense to have quite a bit of success against the Ravens here.
Even with David Montgomery down, Detroit’s offensive line should be able to create holes for whoever is getting the carries for the Lions. And the Detroit passing game can be impossible to slow down, so Jared Goff should play a role in helping Over bettors here. The duo of Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie Sam LaPorta (Questionable) is unfair for opponents to deal with.
The Ravens aren’t quite as good as their opponent offensively, but they’re also plenty capable of contributing to the Over. Baltimore is 10th in the league in Offensive DVOA this season, and the Lions pass rush likely won’t get home much against an elite mover like Lamar Jackson. That will neutralize one of the biggest strengths of the Detroit defense, and it’ll also put more pressure on the Lions secondary. And while it might not seem like it, Baltimore does have some talent at the wide receiver position. Drops have been a problem for the Ravens at times, but they have guys that can get open. And that should be on display here.
It’s also worth noting that the Over tends to hit when the Lions play games that are expected to be close. The Over is 8-6 in the 14 games the Lions have played with a spread of +3 to -3 under head coach Dan Campbell.
Bet: Over 42.5 (-115 – Play to 43.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons have lost three of their last four games and they come into this one on a five-game ATS losing streak. This just isn’t a very good football team, despite having a ton of talent. And the reality is that it mostly boils down to the team’s miserable quarterback play. Desmond Ridder is ranked 33rd out of the 33 quarterbacks that Pro Football Focus has graded this season, and there’s just not much of a passing threat with him under center. Until the Falcons improve significantly at the position, the team is going to have a hard time winning games — especially on the road.
In this specific matchup, I expect Tampa Bay’s defense to give Ridder nightmares. The Bucs had trouble against the Lions last week, but they’re still 10th in the league in Defensive DVOA this year, and they’re good against both the run and the pass. So, I think they’ll limit what the Falcons can do in the passing game, and I don’t think they’ll struggle too much with Bijan Robinson and the Atlanta running game.
Offensively, the Bucs should play a much better game than they did last week. Baker Mayfield is obviously one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league, but the Falcons are 29th in the league in Defensive DVOA against the pass. So, Mayfield should have some big windows to throw into here. And Tampa Bay’s running game should get going a little. The Bucs faced three of the better rushing defenses in the league over the last few weeks, so Rachaad White will welcome this change.
Overall, I just like the Bucs to get the job done at home. And they aren’t laying too many points here, making this something of an easy call for me.
Bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110 – Play to -3)
Added Best Bet
Dolphins ML (+130) vs. Eagles – Check out our SNF Preview for the reasoning
Best Bets Record: 13-7 (+5.60 units)
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