It’s time for Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 16 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 16 NFL best bets and Week 16 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys – 1:00 pm ET
The Chargers aren’t a perfect football team right now. They’re really struggling to keep Justin Herbert upright, and their most recent victories have been ugly. It took a Jalen Hurts meltdown for Los Angeles to beat Philadelphia in Week 14, and a 16-13 win over Kansas City in Week 15 wasn’t all that impressive either. However, this team has won six of its last seven games — while covering in five of the six wins.
The Chargers also look like a tough matchup for the Cowboys. Los Angeles is second in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.066), so it isn’t hard to envision the Chargers keeping the Cowboys passing game in check. Well, if they can do that, this is a game they should be able to win. Dak Presott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens have been killing teams all year, but Los Angeles has good defensive backs and a strong scheme.
I also don’t trust the Dallas defense. While this group looked better shortly after making some big moves at the trade deadline, the unit has fallen apart over the last two weeks. The Cowboys have allowed a total of 78 points over the last two games, which is why they have lost back-to-back contests. Dallas has also been rather weak when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback, so Herbert could have time to throw in this one.
I just think this is a game that Los Angeles should win, so I’m jumping all over the plus-money odds. Under Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles is 10-2 straight-up versus teams with losing records.
I also like Ladd McConkey to finish with at least 44 receiving yards. He should have no problem creating separation against these Cowboys defensive backs, which is why our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 66.12 receiving yards here.
Bet: Chargers ML (+114 – 1.5 units) & McConkey Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants – 1:00 pm ET
If this one didn’t feel like a complete sucker bet, I’d be going way bigger on it. While this Vikings team didn’t live up to expectations this year, they do come into this one after two convincing wins. One was a 31-0 beatdown of Washington. The other was an impressive 34-26 road win over Dallas. Meanwhile, New York has lost each of its last eight games, with some of the defeats being nowhere near competitive.
The Vikings are also ninth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.036). That’s going to be tough for the Giants to go against. New York’s offense really isn’t all that good, and defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to have some looks that confuse rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart.
As long as JJ McCarthy just plays a solid game here, the Vikings really should win this thing comfortably. And it is worth noting that Minnesota is 7-2-3 ATS as a road favorite under Kevin O’Connell. The team is also 6-1 ATS when facing opponents with winning percentages of 25% or worse with him on the sidelines.
Bet: Vikings -2.5 (-110)
Additional Week 16 Best Bets
Seahawks ML (+100 – 1.5 units) vs. Rams – My Thursday Night Football betting preview!
Commanders +7.5 (-125) vs. Eagles – My Saturday NFL previews!
Bears +1.5 (-120) vs. Packers – My Saturday NFL previews!
Rico Dowdle Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114) vs. Buccaneers
Adonai Mitchell Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs. Saints
Ravens -2.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) vs. Patriots – My Sunday Night Football betting preview!
