It’s time for Week 17 of the 2025 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 17 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 17 NFL best bets and Week 17 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 pm ET
The Colts might get Sauce Gardner back this week, but I’m not sure one person can fix this defense. Since Week 10, Indianapolis is 25th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.071), and it’s the passing defense that has been letting the entire unit down. The Colts are 28th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.215) in that span, and teams have been able to throw all over them. In fact, Brock Purdy went scorched earth on this defense last week, completing 73.5% of his passes for 295 yards and five touchdowns.
I’m not sure Trevor Lawrence can do exactly what Purdy did last week, but Jacksonville is fourth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.217) since Week 10. Lawrence is also averaging 304.5 passing yards per game over the last two games.
Of course, Lawrence only threw for 244 yards against the Colts on December 7, so he had a chance to go Over his yardage total against this defense and didn’t do it. But that was a pretty lopsided game, so he didn’t need to throw as much as he’ll have to here. With this game being played in Indianapolis, the Colts should be a little more competitive. That’ll mean Lawrence will need to come through with his arm, and I trust him to do it. Liam Coen was brought in to get the 2021 No. 1 pick right. It appears he has.
Bet: Lawrence Over 245.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills – 4:25 pm ET
It’s a little surprising to see the Bills as such small favorites here. Buffalo’s win over Cleveland last week wasn’t all that impressive, but Philadelphia has been largely unimpressive since Week 5. The Eagles offense was a train wreck from then until Week 15. Philadelphia has since found a little something, averaging 30.0 points per game in wins over Las Vegas and Washington over the last two weeks. But those are two very lousy defensive teams. And while the Bills aren’t very good on defense themselves, they make up for it with an elite offense.
Buffalo is also a Tier 2 team when looking at rbsdm’s season-long EPA per play numbers, and the Bills are actually second to only the Rams in net EPA per play on the year. That means Buffalo is statistically a little sharper than Philadelphia, and this game will be played in Orchard Park. That counts for a lot. The Bills are tough to beat in Highmark Stadium.
I also have way more trust in Josh Allen than I do Jalen Hurts. Allen has been the best quarterback in football for years, and Hurts’ passing and decision-making have been up-and-down all season.
The Eagles are also a sloppy team, which could doom them against the Bills. Under Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 9-1 against the spread in home games in the second half of the season when facing teams that average 60.0 or more penalty yards per game. The Bills have also won those games by an average of 11.4 points per game. Buffalo is also 34-18-3 ATS under McDermott in games with lines of +3 to -3. On top of that, the Bills are 7-3 ATS in Week 17 or later under McDermott, and this is a game they need to win to stay alive in the AFC East standings.
Bet: Bills -1 (-113 – 1.5 units)
Additional Week 17 Best Bets
PARLAY: Cowboys ML vs. Commanders & Lions ML vs. Vikings (-143 – 1.5 units)
Texans +2.5 (-111 – 1.5 units) – My Saturday NFL previews!
Derrick Henry Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-102) – My Saturday NFL previews!
Sam Darnold Over 3.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Jaxson Dart Over 182.5 Passing Yards (-112) vs. Raiders
Bears-49ers Over 52 (-109 – 1.5 units) – My Sunday Night Football preview!
