It’s time for the final week of the 2025 NFL season, as we’re already in Week 18 — meaning the playoffs are right around the corner. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 18 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 18 NFL best bets and Week 18 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for NFL best bets from all of our analysts
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00 pm ET
Since Joe Burrow’s return in Week 13, the Bengals are ninth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.100). Unsurprisingly, Cincinnati is also seventh in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.206). Burrow might not be having a lot of fun playing right now, but his offense is still humming. Also, since Burrow came back, the Bengals are 11th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.008). With that in mind, this is looking like a good football team right now. Of course, this push was too little, too late. However, with the Bengals playing their starters in Week 18, we should see a blowout against the Browns.
Cleveland actually does have an elite defense, so Cincinnati probably isn’t going to go out there and flirt with 30 points. But how many points will the Bengals really need here? The Browns are the worst team in the NFL when it comes to EPA per play (-0.179), and I don’t think it’s a guarantee they’ll find the end zone more than once here.
Cleveland is also just 9-16 against the spread when coming off a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse under Kevin Stefanski. A lot of that comes down to poor quarterback play, but the play under center is a problem for the Browns right now. Also, under Zac Taylor, the Bengals are 21-9 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They’re also 12-5 ATS when facing teams with winning percentages between 25% and 40%. They should roll here.
Bet: Bengals -7.5 (-108)
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans – 1:00 pm ET
The Texans are still in a position where they can use a win, so I like the idea of firing up a prop with C.J. Stroud. The 24-year-old has thrown for at least 229 yards in seven of the last 10 games he has played, and one of those was a 276-yard performance in a road win over this same Colts team. Well, Indianapolis just continues to look worse and worse when it comes to stopping the pass. The Colts are 24th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.161) since the start of Week 9, making it pretty easy to buy into Stroud showing up here.
The only thing I’m a little worried about is the possibility of this game turning into a blowout. However, I still think there’s a chance Stroud posts big numbers in a lopsided win, as Houston isn’t the greatest running team in the world. That said, the team could lean heavily on Stroud for the two two or three quarters.
This is also one that our OptaAI player prop projections like. They have Stroud projected for 247.61 passing yards.
Bet: Stroud Over 210.5 Passing Yards (-113)
Additional Week 18 Best Bets
Seahawks ML (-118 – 1.5 units) vs. 49ers – My Week 18 Seahawks vs. 49ers preview!
Panthers +3 (-112) vs. Buccaneers – My Week 18 Panthers vs. Buccaneers preview!
2025 NFL Record: 100-98 (+5.23 units)
