It’s time for Week 4 of the 2025 NFL season. I strongly suggest you check out the Week 4 NFL Betting Hub, where you’ll find all of the features and picks from my talented co-workers. On top of that, we never stop pumping out good NFL content on our live shows. That’s the beauty of being a subscriber. As a company, we’re relentless in our effort to get you prepared for these games. With that out of the way, let’s get into the fun stuff. Keep reading for my Week 4 NFL best bets and Week 4 NFL player props.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for college football best bets from all of our analysts
Minnesota Vikings vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – 9:30 am ET (Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland)
It’s tough to be thrilled with the idea of backing Carson Wentz, but Minnesota is hard to pass on here. The Vikings are currently first in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.234) and the team is first in Dropback EPA per play (-0.392) by a wide margin. This defense has been something else through three weeks, with all of Brian Flores’ blitz designs landing and the entire secondary ready to make plays. Well, the Steelers haven’t looked like anything special offensively thus far. And Aaron Rodgers has made a ton of turnover-worthy throws. I see that coming back to bite him in Dublin.
This is also a game in which the Minnesota offense should have success leaning on the legs of Jordan Mason. The Pittsburgh rushing defense hasn’t looked great this season. Even last week, New England rushed for 4.1 yards per carry. The team just couldn’t hang on to the football. Mason likely won’t have that problem. Then, any extra attention the Steelers have to pay to the running game should play into Wentz’s hands. And Pittsburgh’s slow group of defensive backs will likely have some trouble sticking with Justin Jefferson and a good group of pass catchers — which will also be welcoming back Jordan Addison.
The Vikings have also thrived in these situations under Kevin O’Connell. They’re 12-4 straight-up and 10-4-2 against the spread in non-conference games, and they’re also 9-1 SU and 6-1-3 ATS in games with totals between 35.5 and 42 points. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS on neutral fields under Mike Tomlin.
This is also a game in which Steve Makinen has a big edge on Minnesota. His estimated spread was Vikings -5.2.
Bet: Vikings -2.5 (-114)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans – 1:00 pm ET
Nico Collins is coming off a game in which he had 104 yards against the Jaguars. The big-time receiver was a little lucky to reach the century mark, as he got behind Jacksonville on a play in which there was a miscommunication in the secondary. Still, Collins needed a little momentum after a slow start to the year, and I think he’ll carry it into a big performance against the Titans.
The Tennessee defense isn’t to blame for the team’s 0-3 start, but the Titans are just 22nd in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.165). This secondary isn’t completely terrible, but it’s undoubtedly beatable. And Collins should have some good matchups here.
Our new VSiN WR-CB matchup tool (powered by Fantasy Points) says that Collins will have one of the biggest Week 4 advantages (1.28) when L’Jarius Sneed is on him. I’m also not sure I see Jalyn Armour-Davis or Roger McCreary doing much better when they end up covering him.
Bet: Collins Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills – 1:00 pm ET
Don’t look now but Spencer Rattler is a top-15 quarterback in Completion Percentage Over Expected (1.8%). Rattler also had PFF grades of 75.5 or higher in Weeks 1 and 2, and he probably would have done a bit better against the Seahawks if his team wasn’t in such a big hole right out the gate. Rattler simply hasn’t played as bad as you’d think this season. So, I’m willing to grab Overs on him in the right matchups. This feels like one of those matchups.
I’m just not ready to say that this Buffalo defense is good, even if the group looked solid in wins over New York and Miami. This was a below-average team in Dropback EPA per play (0.094) last year, and I’m not entirely sold on the secondary. We watched Baltimore shred these defensive backs in Week 1, and there’s undoubtedly some ways to attack the unit. Well, Kellen Moore is a good play caller and I trust him to exploit any weakness he can find.
Also, if this is a game in which the Bills pounce early, the Saints will be throwing the rest of the game. That could end up being a good thing for this prop. The only thing I’m worried about is the presence of Tyler Shough, who fans have been calling for. But Moore gave Rattler a vote of confidence this week, so I don’t see him being pulled unless this gets out of hand.
Bet: Rattler Over 200.5 Passing Yards (-114 – 1.5 units) & Rattler 2+ Passing TDs (+275 – 0.5 units)
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers – 4:05 pm ET
Trevor Lawrence has thrown for fewer than 225 yards in two of his three starts this year, and he hasn’t quite passed the eye test either. Lawrence now has to face a 49ers defense that has been great against the pass. San Francisco is 10th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (-0.014), and the Niners haven’t yet allowed anybody to go to 225 or more passing yards. In Week 1, San Francisco held Sam Darnold to 150 yards. In Week 2, Rattler only threw for 207 yards. Then, last week, Kyler Murray only threw for 159 yards. I’m not sure Lawrence is going to be the one to snap that streak.
Let’s just hope the 49ers don’t come unglued with Nick Bosa out for the season. His ability to get into the backfield made life much easier on the secondary. But Robert Saleh should be able to generate pressure even without the star defensive end.
Bet: Lawrence Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-111)
Additional Week 4 Best Bets
Seahawks ML (-110 – 1.5 units) vs. Cardinals – CLICK HERE for my Seahawks vs. Cardinals Thursday Night Football betting preview!
Eagles -3 (-112 – 1.5 units) vs. Buccaneers
Falcons +3 (-120) vs. Commanders
Dolphins -2.5 (-118) vs. Jets
I’ll likely have a few more once I write up the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games!
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2025 Record: 10-14 (-4.89 units)
