On Thursday, December 11, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons in the Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 15 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Falcons vs. Buccaneers
When: Thursday, December 11 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, December 9. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Buccaneers -230, Falcons +190
Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (-105), Falcons +4.5 (-115)
Total: Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-105)
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Analysis
The Falcons have been absolutely miserable after starting the season 3-2. Atlanta comes into this game having lost seven of its last eight games, and the team doesn’t have much to play for at this point in the year. However, Tampa Bay hasn’t been much better. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last seven games, and they also happen to be coming off a home loss against the lowly Saints. So, while backing Tampa Bay might seem like the easy call heading into this primetime showdown, there’s nothing simple about backing the Buccaneers right now. And that’s especially true when looking at some of Todd Bowles’ betting trends.
With Bowles as the head coach of Tampa Bay, the Bucs are 1-8 against the spread when hosting division opponents. They’re also just 1-10 ATS when playing at home after playing a home game the previous week. On top of that, the Falcons are an impressive 5-0 ATS when playing away from home after a game in which they allowed 30 or more points under Raheem Morris.
It just shouldn’t surprise anyone if Morris, who is a defensive-minded coach, and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich have Atlanta’s defense ready to go here. While the Falcons have struggled against the run this season, the Buccaneers haven’t been all that efficient on the ground. Some of that has to do with Bucky Irving having missed a big chunk of the season, but it also doesn’t help that the offensive line has been shaky. Also, Liam Coen, the team’s offensive coordinator last year, was a big part of Tampa Bay taking its rushing game to another level, but he took the head coaching job in Jacksonville before the season — and has helped the Jags turn their running game around. Well, if the Buccaneers can’t dice the Falcons up on the ground, that could be problematic. The Falcons are pretty decent against the pass, thanks to a sixth-ranked Pass Rush Win Rate (42%). And while Baker Mayfield is an awesome quarterback, he hasn’t had much time to throw this year. He also hasn’t had his full suite of weapons.
Atlanta’s just going to need a solid performance out of Kirk Cousins here. The veteran has looked miserable since Michael Penix Jr. got hurt, but he should be excited about seeing Tampa. While Cousins was a disaster for the Falcons last season, he torched the Buccaneers defense twice. On October 3, he threw for 509 yards with four touchdowns in an overtime win. Then, on October 27, he threw for 276 yards with another four touchdowns.
This just feels like a game that should go down to the wire. And for what it’s worth, Atlanta is 2-0 both SU and ATS on Thursdays under Morris. Tampa Bay is 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on Thursdays under Bowles.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Player Props
Lean: Kyle Pitts Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Drake London is listed as day-to-day for the Falcons, but it feels like people are expecting him to miss this game. That means we should see another heavy dose of Pitts, who has been dynamite over the last two weeks. Pitts had seven catches for 82 yards against the Jets. He followed it up with six catches for 90 yards against the Seahawks. Pitts has also been targeted 18 times over the last two games, showing that Cousins has a lot of trust in the talented 25-year-old weapon. That said, while the Buccaneers have been decent against tight ends this year, it feels like firing up an Over on Pitts could pay off.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Pick
I was high on the Buccaneers heading into the season, but this team has completely unraveled. Tampa has dealt with some key injuries at the wrong spots, but the team simply hasn’t been covering. That makes it hard to imagine the Buccaneers winning this game comfortably. Don’t forget that it took some Mayfield magic for Tampa to beat Atlanta when these teams met in Week 1. Perhaps he comes up with some of that again, but 4.5 is a lot of points in a meeting between teams that are pretty close to being evenly matched.
Bet: Falcons +4.5 (-110)
