Falcons vs. Buccaneers – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Bijan Robinson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BETMGM)
With Drake London not expected to play in this Thursday Night Football matchup, the Falcons are perilously thin at receiver, which is why I think they’ll use Bijan as a glorified wideout in this one. Not only do the Bucs give up the MOST receiving YPG (53.9) to RBs this season, Tampa gives up the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the passing game only (+0.9) over the last five weeks, and Robinson dropped 6/100/1 in the passing game in his matchup in the season opener. They gave up only 2/20 receiving last week to the Saints RBs, but Bijan is another story, and the week before, Cardinals RBs Zonovan Knight and Michael Carter compiled nine targets and 8/83/1 in the passing game. Back in Week 11, James Cook and Ty Johnson turned five targets into 5/127/2 receiving in this matchup. The Falcons are 4.5-point road underdogs, so Atlanta is a long shot to win this one with the stakes high for the Bucs, and Bijan has hit 39 yards in six of their eight losses (75%).
Emeka Egbuka Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BETMGM)
He’s in a major slump and has not hit this number in six of his last eight games, but with Mike Evans back, I like the rookie’s chances to get to 45 yards here. Evans is likely set to see shadow coverage by top corner A.J. Terrell, so we should get Egbuka on CB Mike Hughes often, and that’s the best matchup for all the Bucs receivers, since Hughes gives up a fairly generous .31 FP/RR (compared to just .20 for Terrell). Egbuka also has the best schematic matchup of all their receivers, since he averages a healthy 2.24 YPRR and .30 TPRR on 131 routes against Cover 3, which they run at the second-highest rate (41.3%). Egbuka also put up 4/67/2 receiving against the Falcons in his pro debut in Week 1. If you look at the catch odds for Egbuka, Evans, and Chris Godwin, the books clearly expect Egbuka to have the best chance to hit 4 receptions, which is fairly surprising, but it’s likely due to Egbuka’s positive matchup and his situation with Evans on the field to command attention from the defense and the opposing top corner.
Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 INTs (-130, DraftKings)
Cousins threw for an insane 785/8 in two matchups against the Bucs last year, so his confidence should be relatively high heading into this one. But he’s light years from where he was just a year ago, so his brain may think he can do things that his body isn’t
capable of doing, which is typical for old guys. He’s thrown for three INTs on his last 86 pass attempts, and twice last week in a nasty matchup in Seattle. And as 4.5-point underdogs, he should be forced to the air more than they’d like without his #1 WR Drake London. It’s also a poor schematic matchup for Cousins, who averages a mediocre 6.50 YPA with a poor -5.5% CPOE and a 79.8 passer rating on 59 dropbacks against Cover 3 (35.5%) and Cover 4 (18.1%), which they use at a 53.6% clip.
Mike Evans Over 3.5 Receptions (+108, DraftKings)
These catch total props can be tricky, but I don’t understand why the odds seem stacked against Evans catching four balls. He’s coming off a long layoff and it’s a short week, but Evans did practice last week, so he should be in solid shape, and it’s a huge game for Tampa. Not including the game he was injured in back in Week 7 of this year, Evans has caught 4 or more balls in 11 straight games, 2024 playoffs included. We are projecting shadow coverage by top corner A.J. Terrell, but Evans caught 5/51 on 8 targets in the opener, and he had 5/62/2 on 9 targets in his lone game against Terrell and the Falcons in 2024. The Falcons are also giving up the MOST schedule-adjusted FPG to WRs lined up on the left side the last five weeks (+6.3). Last week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba got them for 7/92/2 on 10 targets. The week before, Adonai Mitchell got 8/102/1 on 12 targets, and back in Week 11, a comparable player who also lines up on the left side more than not, Tet McMillan, put up 8/13/2 on 12 targets in this matchup. I don’t expect the game to be particularly competitive, but Kirk Cousins did throw for an insane 785/8 in two matchups against the Bucs last year, so it’s possible. If so, even if Evans is on something of a pitch count, 4 grabs should be incredibly doable, especially with TE Cade Otton doubtful to play in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Kyle Pitts Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-111, DraftKings)
Yes, Pitts has been hot with 6+ receptions, 82+ yards in two straight with Kirk Cousins, but with Drake London expected to miss the game, I’d have to think that Pitts will be a marked man. It’s also not an ideal schematic matchup for Pitts, who averages a weak 1.23 YPRR and .20 TPRR on 168 routes against Cover 3 (35.5%) and Cover 4 (18.1%), which they’ve run at a 53.6% clip. Tampa Bay gives up the 14th-fewest receiving YPG (48.9) and the 15th-most receptions per game (5.4) to TEs on the season, but over the last five weeks, they’ve given up the 6th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs (-3.8) along with the 6th-fewest to TEs lined up split from the formation (-2.7). Pitts will catch some balls for sure, and he had 7/59 receiving against the Bucs in early September, but he’s failed to hit 60 yards in eight of 13 games this year, 61.5% of the time, and he hit it only four of 17 times in 2024 with mostly Cousins, or only 23.5% of the time.
Rachaad White Over 16.5 Rushing Yards (-120, BETMGM)
Back in the day, I used to play the backup RB for a team I expected to win handily as a “blowout reach,” and I had great success. Over the last 7-10 years, that well has dried up, but with only 17 yards rushing needed to hit this prop, I have to go for it with White, who got a 48.6% snap share last week (same as Bucky Irving) along with 11/53 rushing. I understand Bucky was on something of a pitch count, but he also dinged his ankle in the game last week, which is worth noting in a short week against a weak opponent, so they can probably pull back from using Bucky in the second half. Backup Sean Tucker is still involved, and he had 7/29/1 rushing last week, but he played only 12 snaps compared to 38 for White. White’s hit 17 yards in 10 of 13 games, or 77% of his games, and I like him and Tucker to at least get some volume later in the game.
Sean Tucker Anytime TD at +550 on DraftKings
FYI, despite the fact that I like White to rush for 17 yards or more, my Thursday Night Football special is a Sean Tucker anytime TD. Tucker has the better schematic matchup, since the Falcons have given up 5.7 YPC (6th-most) on man/gap concept runs over the last five weeks with a 55.1% success rate (ninth-worst). Among 49 RBs with at least 25 carries, Tucker’s 5.79 YPC is sixth-best, while White’s 3.73 YPC against those runs is only 32nd-best. If the game is a blowout late and Tucker’s getting carries, he could easily rip one off and take it to the house.
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