Fantasy Football Rankings and NFL Player Props Predictions

NFL Player Props

When it comes to preseason analysis in the fantasy space, my objective is pretty simple: I want to beat the markets. By the time August rolls around, most players will have an average draft position that is fairly easy to predict, so my goal is to isolate assets who I believe will exceed the market’s expectations and outperform their ADPs, and those who will fall short, including NFL player props. 

I certainly have a list of overvalued players on my mind every year, but my true passion is on the positive side of things, and I’ve made a career out of identifying breakout players since my first official call in 1995, which was that Isaac Bruce was the next Jerry Rice. Bruce the year before had just 23 receptions for 272 yards as a rookie, but he exploded for 119/1781 in ‘95, and I’ve been chasing breakouts ever since. Bruce was a very young and ascending player, and the fantasy marketplace had not yet recognized him as a legit asset, so he was an incredible value for the few fantasy managers savvy enough to draft him, and that’s the type of player I’m looking for first and foremost. 

The days of plucking future Hall of Famers in the 18th round are mostly over, but there’s still usually value to be had when backing young and unproven players who have breakout potential, so I’ve put together a list of 10 players who I think will out-perform their ADPs and present a strong ROI in fantasy drafts as well as in terms of season-long props. For good measure, I’ll include five skill players who I see failing to meet expectations, just in case you’re into turning buzzkills into profits.

The Overachievers 

J.J. McCarthy (QB, Min) 

ADP: QB19

Prop Play: Over 3,450.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Eighteen different quarterbacks hit this number last year, including Sam Darnold, who crushed it with 4,319 yards in 17 games for the Vikings. McCarthy has studied this offense for over a year, and he has an excellent chance to be as good or better than the 2024 Darnold due to his superior play with his legs and outside of structure. The same coaching, scheme, and personnel that elevated Darnold last year is still in place, and once stud LT Christian Darrisaw is back, Minnesota should have a top-10 OL and an elite left side in front of him with #1 pick G/T Donovan Jackson added. Unlike last year, TJ Hockenson is healthy coming into the season, so with a deadly 1-2 punch at receiver and more, the Vikes are stacked. He is far and away the most optimized QB pick on the board in fantasy this year, given his combination of value and upside. If McCarthy is available for 14+ games, he’ll be at least the quarterback value pick of the year, and he’ll clear 3,451 passing yards with ease. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Sea) 

ADP: WR14

Prop play: Over 950.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

JSN’s price tag is way up this year, but for good reason. DK Metcalf is gone, and so is Tyler Lockett, so we’re looking at the new alpha receiver in Seattle. Sam Darnold may be a slight downgrade from Geno Smith, but only Ja’Marr Chase had more fantasy points than Justin Jefferson with Darnold last year. New OC Klint Kubiak uses a lot of play action, and Darnold should be a good fit, having averaged 9.70 YPA on play action passes last year (5th-most). Even if Smith-Njigba sees a drop in target volume, he’s still a great bet to hit this if healthy, since he crushed this number last year with 1,130 receiving yards with Metcalf and Lockett on the field. Darnold’s opponents project as the fifth-easiest slate of games for a signal-caller, per Scott Barrett’s projected SOS for QBs, and JSN has the fifth-easiest in Scott’s projected SOS for WRs, so we’re looking good. 

Brock Purdy (QB, SF) 

ADP: QB12

Prop play: Over 23.5 TD Passes (-115)

They did lose Deebo Samuel and the OL is shakier these days, but San Fran’s schedule is as soft as a baby’s buttocks, coming in as the third-best slate of games this year in Scott Barrett’s projected SOS for QBs. That makes sense coming off a 6-11 season, but their schedule is littered with teams from the AFC and NFC South, which is usually ideal. You also love how Vegas is projecting the 49ers’ opponents to rack up the fewest wins of any team, since Purdy sees a 34% boost to his FPG in wins. Purdy was rolling with an absurd career TD% of 7.3% heading into 2024, and he regressed to 4.4%. He tossed only 20 in 15 games, but he still ranked top-10 in fantasy points per dropback (FP/DB), and he played well, so I’m expecting a bump to his TD percentage this year. Brandon Aiyuk is likely headed to the PUP list, but a mid-season return is in play. If we can get a healthy Ricky Pearsall on the field, Purdy has more than enough weaponry to regain his scoring mastery. 

Breece Hall (RB, NYJ) 

ADP: RB13

Prop play: Over 925.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is a ballsy pick, given all the backfield committee talk with the Jets and new HC Aaron Glenn this offseason, and Glenn’s indicated he may want to actively work a third back into the rotation this year. But with all due respect to the capable Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, they are not the needle-movers that Hall is, and Glenn’s in the business of winning games. I have some lingering concerns about Hall’s knee and repaired ACL being a prohibitive factor going forward, but that knee looked fine when he toted the rock 37 times for 178/1 rushing in the 2023 season finale, and he’s had numerous strong showings since the injury, including last year. If Hall is relatively healthy and bringing it, I still see him getting 200+ carries in this run-heavy offense. The timing is also good with noted meathead Nate Hackett out as OC, the OL looking as good as it’s looked in a decade, and with Hall entering the final year of his rookie deal with a schedule that looks quite advantageous.

Drake Maye (QB, NE) 

ADP: QB17

Prop to play: Over 3,200.5 Passing Yards (-115)

When I see a high-pedigree rookie acquit himself well in Year 1, I’m usually looking for buying opportunities before the markets are totally sold on the player and his team, and I’m feeling it with Maye and the Pats. They addressed their horrible OL and protection with a plug-and-play LT in Will Campbell, the fourth pick of the draft, along with the addition of stabilizing veteran RT Morgan Moses, so Maye’s time-to-throw data should greatly improve, I also don’t think the markets are positive enough about the addition of OC Josh McDaniels to go along with the leadership of new HC Mike Vrabel. The Patriots may have the most annoying receiving corps in fantasy history, but they at least have a high number of viable options (including, hopefully, Stefon Diggs), and while it’s a new and complex system, McDaniels has been impressed by Maye’s quick-learning in the early going. It will be a professional offense, unlike what we mostly saw from 2023-2025 in New England, and at 189 passing yards per game in his 12 starts last year, I’m confident that Maye can average at least 220 this season, which gets him over this number in 15 games. 

RJ Harvey (RB, Den) 

ADP: RB24

Prop to play: Over 725.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

While Denver’s schedule ranked seventh-worst in Scott Barrett’s projected SOS for RBs, it’s at least promising to open the season against the Titans, Colts, Chargers, and Bengals. I know Harvey is a rookie, but I don’t think the markets are fully realizing how weak the RB room is in Denver with Audric Estimé, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Tyler Badie. They will be looking at running backs all summer and will likely bring some guys in, but there isn’t an unemployed back on the planet who can match Harvey’s juice. My guy Maurice Jones-Drew is into his fellow short guy in Harvey, and MJD is a savant when it comes to scouting RBs, as is Brett Whitefield, who was considerably higher on Harvey than the entire industry in the Fantasy Points 2025 Prospect Guide (Harvey ended up being the fourth back taken). Harvey’s biggest issue in year one may be his pass-pro deficiencies due to his lack of size, technique, and reps, which could limit his consistency in PPR leagues. But he has the tools to be an excellent weapon in the passing game, and Sean Payton will likely find spots to unleash him as a receiver. As for the prop, it’s a rushing prop, and I think we’re set with Harvey getting the most work as a runner. 

Quinshon Judkins (RB, Cle)

ADP: RB25

Prop to play: Over 625.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Cleveland may open the season with Jerome Ford atop the depth chart, but his hold won’t last long, and entering a contract year, he’s been the subject of trade rumors since the draft. As for the 36th pick of the draft, Judkins immediately saw reps with the ones in their OTA practices, and it would be an upset if he wasn’t in line to collect the bulk of the carries as a rookie over the course of the full season. His explosiveness and speed to go along with his good size stands out in a backfield where his biggest threat is fellow rookie in Dylan Sampson, who was selected 90 spots after him with the 126th pick. There are real concerns about the Browns routinely trailing in games and a tougher first-half schedule, but Judkins should be in line for 12+ starts, and Kevin Stefanski will certainly try like heck to run the rock. On the season, he has to average only 37 rushing yards a game in 17 contests to get this, so even if he opens the career a little flat in this tough spot, a healthy Judkins is talented enough to do what 30 other RBs did in 2024, which is to clear a measly 626 yards rushing. By the second half of the season, a foundational role for Judkins is extremely possible, so I’m willing to bet his talent if I’m looking for a back around the sixth round in redraft leagues this summer. 

Travis Hunter (WR, Jax) 

ADP: WR24

Prop to play: Regular Season TDs: Over 4.5 (-110)

Less than two years ago, Baker Mayfield’s career was in the toilet, and he threw 41 TD passes last year (tied for second-most) under new Jaguar HC Liam Coen, so there is hope for Trevor Lawrence, who is in dire need of an offensive upgrade from the Doug Pederson mediocrity of the last two seasons in Jacksonville. I’ve been sold on Hunter’s ball skills since I saw him do a spiderman impersonation in Week 1 last year, and other than Brian Thomas Jr., there is a serious dearth of receiver talent on the Jags, so he should handle a massive receiving role in this offense. I’m pretty damn sure Hunter will hit this by Thanksgiving. 

Deebo Samuel (WR, Was) 

ADP: WR34

Prop to play: Over 675.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The first Deebo-related news item that came down the line after his trade to the Commanders was a video of him working out, and Deebo’s training for the 2025 campaign has been a story all off-season. He’s posted insane workout videos, including footage of him training as a boxer, and he’s noticeably slimmer. Deebo’s had a tendency to report to work a little too large in the summer, but that won’t be a problem this year, as he plays on a one-year contract in search of what is likely a final big payday. Deebo will do plenty of “gadgety” stuff for (the improving) Kliff Kingsbury, but he also looks like their best RAC guy, so I’m seeing a few big run-after-the-catch plays, since he’s teamed with a young stud in Jayden Daniels, who posted an impressive 69% completion rate as a rookie last year. DC has lost 814 receiving yards from last year with Olamide Zaccheaus and Dyami Brown departing, and they’re still relying on 35-year old Zach Ertz, so Deebo’s volume and role should be fine. Even if they use him plenty in the running game, Deebo had 42 carries in ‘24 (second-most in his career), and he still missed hitting 676 yards by only six yards (while playing fat). 

Tyler Warren (TE, Ind) 

ADP: TE12

Prop to play: Over 500.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

While it’s admittedly a small leap of faith on a team with a weak quarterback situation, I’m using Brock Bowers last year as an example of how a high-end talent can rise above a seemingly suspect situation. Despite drafting TE Michael Mayer 35th overall the year before, Bowers was the man from Day 1, racking up a league-leading 21 targets and 18 receptions his first three games (Mayer totaled 4/21 in those three games). Colts TEs pathetically put up only 467 receiving yards last year, but Shane Steichen got 700+ receiving yards out of Dallas Goedert alone in Philly in 2022-2023, and I actually think Daniel Jones can stabilize the offense. In Jones’ one good season in 2019, three of his top-four receivers were mostly inside guys (Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard, and TE/slot Evan Engram). We’re projecting 606 yards for the rookie Warren over at Fantasy Points, and that checks in as only TE21 in our default PPR setting. Despite our conservative projection, it’s over 20% higher than the prop. For fantasy, despite an abundance of quality targets on the roster, I’d draft Warren as, ideally, a very low-end TE1 or high-end TE2, on the chance that Steichen can quickly utilize his diverse skill set. Warren can pile up yardage in a lot of ways, so I’m expecting the rookie to absorb a healthy chunk of the 824 yards Alec Pierce put up last year. I’m also considering the injury-plagued season logged by Josh Downs and Michael Pittman last year, and the massive draft capital Indy used to acquire him.

The Underachievers 

Saquon Barkley (RB, Phi) 

ADP: RB1

Prop to play: Under 1,500.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

I’m usually wary of aging backs with injury concerns, but I was very into Saquon last summer in this ideal situation, and he obviously crushed. But you can have him in 2025 at this number, since 2024 was the first time he hit even 1,350 yards rushing. As a fantasy ageist, I’ll gladly pass on Barkley for either Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs, who are both over five years younger and who’ve combined for zero serious injuries in their four seasons total. The Eagles have won their division seven times over the last 20 years, but never consecutively in that span, so I’m not even sure Philly is a good bet to repeat as NFC East champions, which hasn’t been done since they did it 2003-04. Philadelphia’s schedule looks nasty, complete with tougher AFC games against KC, Buf, and Den, and a plethora of challenging out-of-division matchups against LAR, TB, Min, GB, and Det. Barkley is hardly a fossil at 28 years old, and the Philly OL and running game should be dominant again, but drafting a back with his profile at 1.1 is dangerous, as it was last year with CMC. As for Barkley’s prop, I’ll put it this way: not a lot has to go wrong for him to fail to average 100 yards a game for 15 games. 

David Montgomery (RB, Det) 

ADP: RB23

Prop to play: Under 775.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

I’ve been in on Monty for redraft purposes the last two seasons, but I’m probably going to let someone else take him this year because there are some potential pitfalls. Montgomery has been very durable, but the touches are starting to add up entering his age-28 season. But there are bigger concerns, like how the Lions have the single-toughest RB schedule on the board this year, per Scott Barrett’s projected SOS for RBs. They also lost OC Ben Johnson, who might hold the secret sauce to maximizing this dual backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, who I suspect will take on a slightly larger role this year. Even worse, Pro Bowl center Frank Ragnow has retired, which is a massive loss. With veteran G Kevin Zeitler also departing, they have to replace 40% of their OL, which will not be easy. Monty’s role in the passing game picked up a little last year, but he’s generally needed positive gamescripts in Detroit, yet the Lions have the 2nd-toughest schedule by opponent win total, so he’s checking off a lot of negative boxes.

Cooper Kupp (WR, Sea) 

ADP: WR34

Prop to play: Under 775.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

If you played the Under on Kupp’s projected receiving yardage total in each of the last three years, you won all three bets. Heck, if you had played the Under on this relatively low total of 775.5 in each of the last three seasons, you’d have gone 2-1 with the only victory being a very close win (812 yards in 2022). The Washington state native is back in the Pacific Northwest, which is nice, but he’s bringing a lot of injury baggage with him at 32 years old, and he’s looking at a serious downgrade in terms of offensive system and quarterback. And for the first time ever, Kupp will not play under Sean McVay, who drafted Kupp in his first season as the head coach in LA in 2017. The Vikings were top-5 in his catchable ball rate under Sam Darnold last year, but I have concerns about their low number of dome games (3, sixth-fewest), since Darnold has averaged a strong 18.6 FPG in a dome compared to only 13.1 FPG outdoors, which represents a 41% drop in production. Give me the Under for the aging Kupp in a new offense with a downgrade in coaching and at quarterback. 

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE) 

ADP: RB35

Prop to play: Under 725.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The search for ascending players is what gets me out of bed in the morning, while the prospect of backing a descending player scares the hell out of me, and it’s pretty safe to say Rhamondre is a descending player. Already in his age-27 season, Stevenson will be damn near 28 by season’s end, and his efficiency numbers have fallen off a cliff. That’s why the Pats drafted TreVeyon Henderson with the 36th pick of the draft. Henderson may handle only 150 carries this year, but he’s also going to neutralize Stevenson’s role in the passing game, one that has been shrinking as of late. 

Khalil Shakir (WR, Buf) 

ADP: WR38

Prop to play: Under 775.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

I loved Shakir as a fantasy pick last summer, and he delivered. I’m not totally against him as the 38th wideout off the board, but he’s clearly much less appealing compared to last year, when he was the 53rd wideout drafted. We have him projected at Fantasy Points for 786 receiving yards, so his margin for error may be minimal if he’s to hit this Over. I believed the Bills were going to need Shakir more than people thought last summer, and he led them in pass targets by a wide margin (100, next was 75), but I’m not so sure this time around. They added Josh Palmer to beat man coverage, something Shakir doesn’t do very well, and it’s fair to expect greater contributions this year from youngsters Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid. They also added Elijah Moore, who might actually be their best overall receiver.

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