The transition from Week 1 to Week 2 in the NFL can be tricky for player props. There is a balancing act between what we saw in the season openers and how these teams have performed the last couple of seasons. Some of these defenses have changed their approaches, while some of these offenses have completely new philosophies. Luckily we have a great tool at VSiN.com, our OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections, which we can use to help us fill in the gaps of what we like this week.
Jeremiyah Love Over 14.5 Receiving Yards
Seattle had the third-best run defense in the NFL last year. And, like a lot of elite run defenses, they are susceptible to giving up yards to RBs catching the ball. First, it’s a way for teams to still get one of their best playmakers involved. And secondly, if they aren’t able to run the ball, they are likely losing and throwing from behind.
The Seahawks allowed the sixth-most receiving yards (37.6) to RBs in 2025 and 11th-most (36.7 YPG) in 2024. In their season opener with New England, Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson compiled 44 receiving yards. He also had 40 vs. Seattle in the Super Bowl. In fact going back to Week 18 of last season, a RB from each of their previous five contests has cleared 14.5 receiving yards, including the NFC Championship game where both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams went Over this number.
Will that be Jeremiyah Love? He is competing for snaps with Tyler Allgeier. The veteran Allgeier outsnapped Love 44 to 32 in Week 1 and, while they both finished with two catches for nine yards, Love had two more targets through the air. Love is the more dynamic playmaker; I can see him being a better fit for third down work in this matchup and clearing this number. OptaAI agrees, it has Love going for 17.52 yards which is a +7.6% edge to the Over.
Jonathan Taylor Under 84.5 Rushing Yards or Over 16.5 Receiving Yards
Choose your own adventure on this one. Last season vs. top 15 run defenses, he averaged 82.2 rushing yards and 20.3 receiving yards per game. Kansas City was eighth against the run last season and held Denver’s RBs to just 54 rushing yards on 11 carries on Monday Night Football.
OptaAI projects Taylor for 66.43 rushing yards and 24.53 receiving yards this week vs. the Chiefs. This is as much a matchup play as it is a game-script angle. Kansas City is a 6.5-point home favorite and if they have the lead late, Daniel Jones will be forced to throw more. Last season with Jones at QB, Taylor averaged 25.3 receiving yards per game vs. 18.5 post-Jones injury. I prefer the receiving route where OptaAI has the edge at +21.8% against the number, but there is a reason OptaAI’s edge on the Under rushing yards is also +20.3%.
Bucky Irving Over 14.5 Rush Attempts or Over 59.5 Rush Yards
The attempts really piqued my interest when I saw OptaAI had a +19.8% edge to the over with a projection of 17.92. I personally prefer to go Over his 59.5 rush yards where the OptaAI edge is just +5.6% with a projection of 65.77. My only concern for attempts would only be if the Buccaneers are blowing out Cleveland and Irving doesn’t see the field as much in the fourth quarter. If Cleveland can hang out for most of the game and even cover as an underdog, I think both are very live.
Last season, Irving went Over 14.5 rush attempts in eight of his 10 games. He cleared 59.5 rush yards in seven of those contests. The Browns allowed the 11th-most attempts (22.7) and 17th most rush yards (96.4) to opposing RBs. In Week 1, they allowed Jacksonville RBs to run for 121 yards on 25 carries.
Irving outsnapped newly added Kenneth Gainwell 35 to 26 in Week 1 and only had 45 rush yards because Tampa Bay was playing from behind early in their 33-27 loss. This time, Tampa Bay is favored by 8.5 so if that number is correct, and they are running late in the game, Irving should have a nice day. Whenever I can correlate a big favorite with RB running props, I usually feel good.
