NFL Week 2 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
I had a solid start to the 2026 NFL season with my Best Bets, going 6-3 ATS for 66.7%. As most of you who have followed me for years know, I base a lot of my opinions on the analytics in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports each week. On rare occasions, I will stray from that stuff, or perhaps even go against something I see. That said, last week’s report was fire, especially the systems I drew up for Week 1 action based on recent years’ results. Those 12 systems included 32 suggested plays, and the teams that qualified went 22-9-1 ATS.
For this week, a lot of what I am leaning on is from my article on Tuesday titled “NFL Betting Systems to Turn Week 1 Results into Week 2 Profits.” There was a lot of good stuff in there, and a lot of new ideas I came up with to produce new angles. Hopefully we see similar results to last week. In any case, after pouring through all the data, here is what I came up with for Week 2.
Thursday, September 17, 2026
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (Total 54.5)
If you saw Thursday morning’s VSiN newsletter from Bill Adee, you know that I am already on the hook essentially for the Lions-Bills game to go Under the lofty total of 54.5. I guess I should make it official with a best bet offering on the contest while I’m at it. Yes, we all know how obvious this game looks for being a potential shootout. My history with NFL betting has always taught me that something obvious rarely wins. I’m not surprised to see 65% of the bets at DraftKings on an Over type of game, because bettors at DK love Overs, and the last time these teams met two years ago, the game produced 90 points.
That said, with both teams coming off huge scoring tilts in Week 1, several systems suggest much lower scoring this time around. First, teams that won even closer games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 44-23-1 Under (65.7%) the total in Week 2 since 2005. Detroit won by 1 over New Orleans last Sunday. Second, teams that win in high-scoring Week 1 games featuring more than 50 total points scored have gone Under the total at a 34-18 (65.4%) rate since 2015. Both teams did this a week ago. Third, if you remember the details of the Lions’ game vs. New Orleans, you know the game was 7-0 at halftime and 21-0 with 5:00 left in the 3rd. Head coach Dan Campbell is 16-10 Under the total in games after allowing 30+ points since 2015, and by all rights, if the Lions hadn’t gotten up by 3 TDs, the game would have settled a lot. Plus, in the recent history of this series, Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight as well, and in 36 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 24-12 rate.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Book me for UNDER 54.5 in Detroit-Buffalo Thursday night
Sunday, September 20, 2026
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at New York Jets
I always say the best time to back a team in the NFL is when the world seems to be against it. After another late collapse on Sunday in Minnesota, the Packers somehow lost by 17 points to the Vikings. They literally controlled the game for three quarters. Dating back to last December, it seems to be a pattern with head coach Matt LaFleur’s team. That result, combined with the Jets’ win at Tennessee, has seen the line for their game on Sunday drop from -6.5 in the offseason to -4.5 when opening this week, to -3.5 at last check. On top of that, 87% of the handle coming in at DraftKings is on New York.
There are a few things I can’t get past, though. First off, NY Jets are 12-29 ATS (29.3%) when coming off a SU win since 2017, and 14-33 ATS (29.8%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015. On top of that, there are a couple angles on new Jets’ QB Geno Smith, as he is just 8-16-1 ATS in his last 25 starts vs. teams with lesser records. Similarly, since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 17-33 SU and 14-36 ATS. On top of that, in their last 67 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 32-35 SU and 26-40-1 ATS (39.4%). This trend dates back to 2021.
Looking back at the Packers’ season-opening loss, teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 53-30-3 ATS (63.9%) in Week 2 over the last 14 seasons, and teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-10 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) in Week 2 since 2007. If you need any more to consider the Packers as a great potential bounce back team for Week 2, they are 6-1-1 SU in the last eight Week 2 games, with eight straight ATS covers, and road teams are 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in the GB-NYJ set since 2000.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Give me Green Bay -3.5 to get its first win since December 7th
Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) at Chicago Bears
If you go by anything printed after last Sunday’s action, you can hand the Lombardi Trophy to the Bears right now, as well as the MVP hardware to QB Caleb Williams. And why not? They did put up 59 points on the Panthers in week 1 en route to a huge season-opening win. Week 2 is a much bigger barometer for head coach Ben Johnson’s team, however, as they play a team with an actual defense in Minnesota, one that got after Packers’ QB Jordan Love with relentless energy last week. This will be a far different challenge for Chicago, and unfortunately, oddsmakers have put the Bears in a difficult spot by making them 4.5-point favorites.
History shows that teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 26-15 SU but 13-28 ATS (31.7%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012. We also know that Chicago is 12-28 SU and 14-26 ATS versus divisional opponents since 2019 and that road teams are 9-3 SU and 9-2-1 ATS in the Vikings-Bears NFC North rivalry since the start of the 2020 season. The public backing also figures to be a problem for Johnson’s team, as 63% of the bets as of Thursday were backing them. When the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 214-260 ATS (45.1%) for -72.0 units over the last three seasons.
Then, there is the laundry list of systems favoring Minnesota from my Week 1 to Week 2 transition article this week. My favorite of the angles backing the Vikings is this one: Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 29-23 SU and 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) since 2006 in Week 2 (+8.1 units, ROI: 16.9%, Grade 56)
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll go with Minnesota (+4.5) to push the Bears to the limit on Sunday
Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5) at New England Patriots
Although New England almost pulled an upset at the home of the defending Super Bowl champs on opening night, and Pittsburgh survived a 7-point decision to edge QB-less Atlanta last Sunday, I easily prefer what I saw from the Steelers in Week 1 to what we got from the Patriots. The defending AFC champs looked completely out of sync and struggled to move the ball on the ground. On top of that, QB Drake Maye looked confused, throwing three interceptions in a game where they also lost WR AJ Brown to injury.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s defense dominated, and QB Aaron Rodgers looked sharp running head coach Mike McCarthy’s offense. Had it not been for some bad drops by his receivers, the game could have been 34-13 instead of 20-13. That said, I think the lesser margin of victory has given us a nice underdog line for Sunday, and small road underdogs have been gold in Week 2 of the NFL of late, as those in the +1 to +6.5 range are 31-32 SU but 44-17 ATS since 2016. As it is, Pittsburgh is 41-24-1 ATS (63.1%) as an underdog since 2018.
For the Patriots off the 3-point defeat, they must face this tough angle: Teams that lost close games in Week 1 (5 points or less) are just 10-12 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) when playing at home in a Week 2 game since ’19. I have to admit, I’m not sold right now on the Patriots’ long-term prospects, and getting extra rest already is also not good: Teams whose opponents played in the weeknight season opening games of Thursday and Friday and thus have extra rest are 17-27 SU but 26-17-1 ATS (60.5%) in Week 2 since 2005. Head coach Mike Vrabel’s team will be lucky to get a win, much less a cover here.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll go with Pittsburgh +5.5 at New England, with an outside shot at an upset
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)
Let me get this straight: the team that is statistically the worst favorite in the NFL finds itself in that role against a divisional opponent and is coming off a game in which its defense allowed 59 points and looked like it hadn’t tackled anyone in a year? Yes, I know that the Falcons are down to their third-string QB in Cooper Rush, but unlike last week, he will have had a full week to get ready for this one. We all know that Rush and head coach Kevin Stefanski have some of the best young skill position weapons in the game, and what better way to get healthy than to take on a defense that just gave up 59 points and 552 yards of offense.
Let’s look at some of the trends first: 1) Carolina is 10-20 SU and 9-21 ATS vs. poor teams with winning percentages <=33% since 2017. 2) CAROLINA is 16-35 ATS (31.4%) as a favorite since 2016 (including twelve straight SU losses as a favorite). 3) Carolina is on a 1-7 SU and 2-5-1 ATS skid currently in Week 2 games.
Now, some of my favorite systems from my Week 2 NFL article: Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6 points or less or are underdogs are 21-40 SU and 23-38 ATS (37.7%) since 2012. Also, in Week 2 games between teams that are both 0-1 ATS, underdogs are on a phenomenal run of 22-25 SU but 30-15-2 ATS (66.7%) since 2014 (+14.4 units, ROI: 32%, Grade 63).
If you need more, consider that underdogs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in the Panthers-Falcons NFC South rivalry since the start of the 2020 season, and that in NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 215-256 ATS (45.6%) for -66.6 units. For the record, as of Thursday afternoon, 56% of the handle & 81% of the bets at DraftKings were backing the road-favored Panthers. Yuck.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Give me Atlanta +2.5 at home versus Carolina
Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5) at Houston Texans
Sometimes, one week and one game can have a huge impact on a team’s season prospects. Houston was nine yards away from a game-winning TD and clutch late drive against AFC power Buffalo when QB CJ Stroud inexplicably took a 10-yard sack. The play cost the Texans not only key yards, but their last time out and any chance to pull off the crucial upset. Now, it seems that they could be without their top offensive weapon after WR Nico Collins left practice midweek with a hamstring injury. This was not what the doctor ordered as they get ready to face the high-powered Cincinnati offense and QB Joe Burrow.
It certainly isn’t out of the question that Houston could be 0-2 after Sunday with two home losses and looking down the barrel of a fairly tough upcoming schedule. Teams that lost close games in Week 1 (5 points or less) are just 10-12 SU and 5-17 ATS (22.7%) when playing at home in a Week 2 game since 2019. Additionally, teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 15-10 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) over the last 14 seasons. Naturally, teams with prolific offenses always make for live underdogs, and small road underdogs have been gold in Week 2 of the NFL of late, as those in the +1 to +6.5 range are 31-32 SU but 44-17 ATS since 2016.
From a trend perspective, Cincinnati’s QB Joe Burrow is 10-9 SU and 16-3 ATS in the last 19 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG, and Cincinnati is 59-69 SU but 77-48 ATS on the road dating back to 2011. Plus, Houston is on a 20-59 SU and 29-49 ATS slide vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010. As if the analytics could get even more orange, road teams/underdogs have gone 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the last six of the Cincinnati-Houston set.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I’ll take Cincinnati (+2.5) at Houston and wouldn’t discourage ML betting either
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5)
Had the Chargers not been facing a divisional opponent this week, I’m not sure I could get behind them to bounce back from their Week 1 upset loss to Arizona. That performance was ugly, and fortunately, I saw it coming as it was one of my Best Bets. It actually sets up a nice spot for head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team to rebound, since teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 53-30-3 ATS (63.9%) in Week 2 over the last 14 seasons. Moreover, teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 in a home or neutral game have responded the next week favorably by going 22-15 SU and 28-9 ATS.
The fact that the Chargers were also big favorites in the Arizona loss also comes into play: Week 1 favorites of 6 points or more that lost their games have bounced back with a record of 20-6 SU and ATS (76.9%) in Week 2 since 2002. As it is, QB Justin Herbert is 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021, and head coach Jim Harbaugh owns a solid 34-12 SU and 30-14 ATS NFL mark as a favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2011. That’s not to mention that the Chargers have been elite in divisional games the last two seasons, 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS (90.9%).
The Raiders come off a nice win of their own, a 27-13 defeat of Miami behind their new QB Kirk Cousins. However, in their last 67 starts with new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 32-35 SU and 26-40-1 ATS (39.4%). This trend dates back to 2021. As if we need more, favorites are on 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS run in the Raiders-Chargers AFC West series.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: It’s LA Chargers -6.5 for me on Sunday
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
One of the best overall performances in Week 1 came from the Jaguars. One of the worst team showings came from Denver on Monday night. Naturally, the teams meet in Week 2, and wouldn’t you know it, the Broncos are favored. Oh, and did I mention that last year, with very similar rosters as now, the Jaguars tagged the Broncos on their home turf 34-20? For what possible reason would head coach Sean Payton’s team be favored here?
Hah, this game is a microcosm of what makes NFL betting tough at times. Even still, the betting public is well behind Denver to rebound, with 81% of the handle backing the hosts. I’m a little concerned by that, but when you see that only 37% of the bets are on the Broncos, I have to assume that a lot of money, perhaps more sharp money, came in early. One of the main analytics I’m looking at for this game comes in trend form: Denver’s head coach Sean Payton is 18-10 SU and 21-6 ATS in the last 28 games coming off an outright road loss. The Broncos are also 23-6 ATS bouncing back after a game having scored 14 points or less since 2019. The ugly loss to KC also serves to benefit Denver in two systematic ways: 1) Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 53-30-3 ATS (63.9%) in Week 2 over the last 14 seasons, and 2) Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 16-10 SU and 15-10-1 ATS (60%) in Week 2 since 2007.
Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s easy win could come back to bite since Week 2 teams that scored 30+ points last week and are now playing as favorites of 6 points or less or are underdogs are 21-40 SU and 23-38 ATS (37.7%) since 2012. Payton’s team was put in a difficult spot last week with the emotional return of QB Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead and was overwhelmed when the Chiefs leaned on their run game instead. I don’t think Jax will have any major surprises in store.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Give me Denver -2.5 to even its record at 1-1
Indianapolis Colts (+6.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
For as impressive as the Chiefs’ 31-10 win over Denver was on Monday night, I left that game with a realistic concern about whether the Chiefs can maintain that success with the way they played. Yes, RB Kenneth Walker was outstanding, and they leaned on him heavily, but QB Patrick Mahomes didn’t look like himself, and the pass protection was suspect. Granted, the Broncos’ pass rush was record-setting last year, but I am afraid that head coach Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ staff might be hesitant to put too much on Mahomes this early. That plays right into the hands of the Colts this week, who saw the game film from MNF and should prepare accordingly.
At the same time, Indy welcomed back its QB, Daniel Jones, and struggled to execute against one of the AFC favorites for 2026. That said, teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 in a home or neutral game have responded the next week favorably by going 22-15 SU and 28-9 ATS (75.7%) since 2015. As a team, Indianapolis is 32-16 SU and 33-13 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011, as well as 26-25 SU and 36-14 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2010. QB Jones himself is 15-5 ATS as a road underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019.
The Chiefs’ big scoring output highlights a trend I detailed a couple of weeks ago in a Top NFL Trends for 2026 piece I put together: Kansas City is 22-11 SU but 8-23 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 30+ points since 2020. With a MNF game followed by a SNF game, clearly the schedule makers did KC a favor to start the season. However, teams playing a second straight home game in Week 2 and are favored have gone 15-10 SU but 6-19 ATS (24%) over the last 14 seasons. I expect a potential letdown here from the Chiefs, especially since the DraftKings bags are behind them. When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 138-153 ATS (47.4%) and 137-151 ATS (47.6%), respectively.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: I expect Indianapolis (+6.5) to make a game of this at KC
For more NFL Week 2 best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub, exclusively at VSiN.com.
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