The search continues for NFL player props where Opta-AI and I see eye to eye (say that five times fast). Through three weeks, man and machine are a combined 7-1. Let’s see what Week 4 has in store.
Bucky Irving Over 55.5 Rushing Yards
It’s no secret Green Bay’s defense has struggled to stop the run to begin 2026. The Packers are without Micah Parsons, who isn’t expected back until around Week 6, and they’ve clearly felt the loss of former DC Jeff Hafley. Through three games, Green Bay is allowing 126.3 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, third-most in the NFL.
That puts Bucky Irving in an intriguing spot, especially with rookie QB Jalon Daniels making his first career start. Tampa Bay has every reason to lean on Irving, incorporate the RPO game and avoid putting Daniels in obvious third-and-long situations.
The Buccaneers are underdogs, which normally makes me hesitant to play a rushing over, but I think the potential volume outweighs the game-script concern. Opta-AI agrees, projecting Irving for 63.31 rushing yards against a line of 55.5, an 8.4% edge to the Over.
If Tampa Bay wants to keep this game competitive while protecting its rookie quarterback, Irving should be at the center of the game plan. Just monitor his glute injury as we get closer to kickoff.
Greg Dulcich Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Miami OC Bobby Slowik is starting to look like Old Mother Hubbard and Greg Dulcich might be the only thing left in the cupboard.
The Dolphins were already short on weapons before losing De’Von Achane for the season with a torn ACL. Now Caleb Douglas is dealing with an ankle injury and missed Thursday’s practice, while Chris Bell was limited with a knee injury. Malik Washington remains Miami’s target leader, but this matchup sets up particularly well for Dulcich, who saw seven targets last week.
Minnesota has already surrendered big receiving performances to tight ends, including Tucker Kraft (65 yards) and Jonnu Smith (50) in Week 1, followed by Cade Otton (56) last week. Dulcich is coming off a 55-yard performance himself, and with Miami entering as a double-digit underdog, we could be looking at a pass-heavy second half.
This is also Opta-AI’s biggest edge of the five plays, projecting Dulcich for 39.49 receiving yards against a line of 29.5, a 16.5% edge to the Over. Between the depleted receiving corps, favorable matchup and potential negative game script, Dulcich should have plenty of opportunities to clear 30 yards.
The Play: Greg Dulcich Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Warren was very good to us last week, and I’m going right back to him against Washington.
Tight ends have consistently found room against the Commanders. Dallas Goedert had 77 receiving yards in Week 1, Jake Ferguson followed with 43 in Week 2 and AJ Barner posted 69 last week. Washington enters Week 4 allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
The opportunity is there, too. With Alec Pierce on IR and Washington likely devoting plenty of attention to preventing Josh Downs from beating them downfield, Warren should continue to find opportunities underneath and over the middle.
He’s essentially operating as the Colts’ No. 2 receiving option, and his target volume has increased every week: five, seven and then 10 last week.
Warren also averaged 53.8 receiving yards per game with Daniel Jones at quarterback in 2025, and Opta-AI sees another productive afternoon coming, projecting 57.76 yards against a line of 48.5, a 9.7% edge to the Over.
The play: Tyler Warren Over 48.5 Receiving Yards
Darren Waller Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
Detroit’s pass defense has been getting absolutely shredded by tight ends. Through three games, the Lions are allowing an incredible 117 receiving yards per game to the position.
Juwan Johnson had 54 yards in Week 1, Dalton Kincaid exploded for 95 in Week 2 and rookie Kenyon Sadiq torched Detroit for 105 last week.
Now Darren Waller gets his shot.
Carolina enters as a home underdog while dealing with injuries to several offensive weapons, most notably Jalen Coker (quad) and Xavier Legette (knee). Waller has a chance to emerge as Carolina’s second-most important option in the passing game, in a game with the second-highest total on the board for Week 4.
Waller has already cleared this number in all three games, and his receiving yardage has climbed each week: 28, 33 and 51. Opta-AI projects him for 32.42 yards against a line of 27.5, an 8.4% edge to the Over.
The number just feels low.
The Play: Darren Waller Over 27.5 Receiving Yards
WAN’DALE ROBINSON OVER 37.5 RECEIVING YARDS
I’m applying a similar philosophy here as I did with Dulcich: when I see a double-digit underdog, I’m looking for pass-catchers who could benefit from increased receiving volume. Wan’Dale Robinson fits that profile against Baltimore.
The Ravens are allowing the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers, but what’s particularly interesting is who has hurt them. Chris Olave had 86 yards and CeeDee Lamb had 112, with both doing significant work from the slot. I’m not comparing Robinson to either player stylistically or talent-wise, but Baltimore hasn’t exactly shut down secondary receiving options either: Devaughn Vele had 64 yards and George Pickens went for 82.
Baltimore should also be aggressive about pressuring Cam Ward and forcing the young quarterback to make quick decisions. That’s where Robinson’s role comes in. His shorter routes can provide Ward with an easy answer against pressure, while a negative game script could create additional second-half targets.
Opta-AI isn’t as aggressive on this one as the other four, but it still sees value, projecting Robinson for 40.90 receiving yards against a line of 37.5, a 4.0% edge to the Over.
Robinson needs volume, quick completions and the game script we’re already expecting to clear this low number.
The Play: Wan’Dale Robinson Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
