Week 4 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been solid bets as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 36-66 SU but 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at BUF)
* NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-31 SU but 33-11-2 ATS (75%) in their last 46 tries.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+10.5 at MIN), LA CHARGERS (+7 at SEA)
* Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-16-2 since 2013, 71.4%, +22.4 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
* Home teams have won and covered nine straight games between Pittsburgh and Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
* On Sunday Night Football, teams scoring 30+ PPG are 15-12 SU but 6-21 ATS (22.2%) in their last 27 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at CAR)
* NEW ORLEANS is on a 17-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NO (o/u at 47.5)
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 11-9 SU and 17-3 ATS (85%) in the last 20 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-2.5 vs JAX)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: NY GIANTS +2.5 vs ARI (projections have line at NYG -2.5)
Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(101) PITTSBURGH (2-1) at (102) CLEVELAND (2-1)
* PITTSBURGH is 32-21 SU but 15-36 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 11-15 SU and 7-19 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at CLE)
* CLEVELAND is 39-47 ATS (45.3%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 25-41 ATS (37.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 38-13 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 32-10 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 38.5)
(251) INDIANAPOLIS (1-2) vs (252) WASHINGTON (1-2)
* WASHINGTON is 14-14 SU and 19-8 ATS when coming off an upset win since 2018
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 13-8 SU and ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 7-18 SU and 7-17 ATS vs. AFC since 2016
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs IND)
* WASHINGTON’s Dan Quinn is 25-12 Over the total in games after scoring 30+ points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WAS-IND (o/u at 47.5)
(253) NEW ENGLAND (1-2) at (254) BUFFALO (3-0)
* NEW ENGLAND is 20-30-3 ATS (40%) as an underdog since 2021
* BUFFALO is 23-9 SU and 24-8 ATS vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2018
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-6.5 vs NE)
(255) NY JETS (1-2) at (256) CHICAGO (2-1)
* NY JETS own ugly 13-54 SU and 22-42-1 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 15-33-1 ATS (31.3%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+3.5 at CHI)
* CHICAGO is 18-7 Under the total when coming off an upset win since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-CHI (o/u at 42.5)
(257) ARIZONA (1-2) at (258) NY GIANTS (2-1
* ARIZONA is 20-34 ATS (37%) as a favorite since 2016
* ARIZONA is 37-26 ATS (58.7%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (-2.5 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS’ John Harbaugh is 15-17 SU but 23-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+2.5 vs ARI)
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on a 12-3 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on a 7-1 Over the total streak as a short underdog of less than +3 points
* NY GIANTS are 26-11 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 14-1 Under the total when coming off a win over an AFC foe since 2016
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in ARI-NYG (o/u at 44.5)
(259) DALLAS (1-2) at (260) HOUSTON (0-3)
* DALLAS is 30-13 SU and 26-17 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on 5-15-1 SU and 7-13-1 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of DALLAS (+3 at HOU)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on a 13-4 Under the total streak as a home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-HOU (o/u at 48.5)
(261) JACKSONVILLE (2-1) at (262) CINCINNATI (2-1)
* CINCINNATI is 14-27 SU but 28-14 ATS surge when coming off an outright road loss since 2016
* CINCINNATI is 76-63 SU and 84-55 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 11-9 SU and 17-3 ATS in the last 20 starts vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 22-11 SU and 24-9 ATS (72.7%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. The average line was -0.8, Team average PF: 26.7
* CINCINNATI’s Zac Taylor is on 14-13 SU and 20-7 ATS run vs. elite teams with winning percentages >=66.7%
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-2.5 vs JAX)
* CINCINNATI’s Joe Burrow is 14-9 Under the total versus non-divisional AFC foes since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-CIN (o/u at 51.5)
(263) GREEN BAY (1-2) at (264) TAMPA BAY (0-3)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 26-19-1 SU but 16-30 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is on a 0-11 SU and 1-8 ATS skid as a home underdog of +3 to +7 points
* TAMPA BAY is 31-44 ATS (41.3%) when coming off a SU loss since 2016
* TAMPA BAY is 39-60 ATS (39.4%) at home since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs GB)
* GREEN BAY is 30-13 Over the total as a road favorite since 2015
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-9 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): GB-TB (o/u at 39.5)
(265) LA RAMS (1-2) at (266) PHILADELPHIA (2-1)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 41-67 SU and 41-65 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS are 30-16 ATS (65.2%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LA RAMS (-3 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 16-31 ATS (34%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+3 vs LAR)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 15-4 Under the total in the last 19 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 43.5)
(267) TENNESSEE (0-3) at (268) BALTIMORE (2-1)
* TENNESSEE is on 10-45 SU and 15-39-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
* TENNESSEE is 37-52-1 ATS (41.6%) in non-divisional conference games since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+11.5 at BAL)
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 33-13 SU and 28-17 ATS in a game following up scoring 30+ points since 2018
* BALTIMORE’s Lamar Jackson is 14-7 SU but 6-15 ATS in the last 21 games vs. poor teams with winning percentage <=33%
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of BALTIMORE (-11.5 vs TEN)
(269) MIAMI (0-3) at (270) MINNESOTA (3-0)
* MIAMI is 32-21 ATS (60.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
* MIAMI is 56-48 ATS (53.8%) as an underdog since 2014
Trends Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+10.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA is 32-20 SU and 33-17 ATS versus AFC opponents since 2014
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 88-62 SU and 94-55-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 25-13 SU but only 13-25 ATS in its last 38 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in the last 16 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is just 7-11 SU and 6-12 ATS in his last 18 starts as a favorite
Trends Match: 3 PLAYS, 2 FADES of MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs MIA)
* MINNESOTA’s Kyler Murray is 12-2 Over the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-MIN (o/u at 38.5)
(271) DENVER (2-1) at (272) SAN FRANCISCO (3-0)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is on a 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS skid when coming off a home win
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 16-8 SU but 11-13 ATS in the last 23 vs. teams with lesser records
* SAN FRANCISCO is 23-30 ATS (43.4%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 vs DEN)
* DENVER is 111-76 Under the total (59.4%) since 2015
* SAN FRANCISCO is on 17-2 Over the total surge as a home favorite of -3 to -7 points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 49-31 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-SF (o/u at 47.5)
(273) KANSAS CITY (3-0) at (274) LAS VEGAS (3-0)
* KANSAS CITY is 13-22-1 ATS (37.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 58-45-1 ATS (56.3%) in road/neutral games since 2014
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 32-14 SU and 26-18 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of KANSAS CITY (-4.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS is 29-19 ATS (60.4%) vs. divisional opponents since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+4.5 vs KC)
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is on a 12-5 Under the total streak vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG
* LAS VEGAS is 32-9 Over the total vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG since 2013
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in KC-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
(275) LA CHARGERS (0-3) at (276) SEATTLE (2-1)
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 14-12 SU but 10-15-1 ATS in his last 26 starts vs. teams with losing records
* SEATTLE is 37-26 ATS (58.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 26-18-2 ATS (59.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (-7 vs LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are on 35-15 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 21-7 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
* LA CHARGERS’ Jim Harbaugh is on a 14-2 Under the total surge vs. elite defenses allowing <19 PPG
* LA CHARGERS’ Justin Herbert is 13-5 Over the total in his last 18 games when his team is coming off a non-divisional AFC loss
* SEATTLE’s Sam Darnold is 30-17 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 4 PLAYS UNDER in LAC-SEA (o/u at 42.5)
(277) DETROIT (2-1) at (278) CAROLINA (1-2)
* CAROLINA is 24-33 ATS (42.1%) at home since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
(279) ATLANTA (1-2) at (280) NEW ORLEANS (1-2)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is on an 8-22 SU and 7-21 ATS slide when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+2.5 at NO)
* NEW ORLEANS is 27-48 ATS (36%) at home since 2017
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs ATL)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is 20-12 Under the total vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
* NEW ORLEANS is on 17-1 Under the total run when playing with extra rest (>7 days)
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NO (o/u at 47.5)
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 22-16 SU but 13-24-1 ATS (35.1%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-6.5 vs NE)
LOW-SCORING LOSERS BOUNCE BACK AS DIVISIONAL UNDERDOGS
Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been solid bets as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 36-66 SU but 65-34-3 ATS (65.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at BUF)
LOSING BUT COVERING NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR FAVORITES
Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-45 SU and 34-61 ATS (35.8%) since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-2.5 at NYG)
NFL Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for NFL teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
NFL Team Strength Betting System #1:
Lower-totaled (o/u <= 45) games involving two teams who both have poor defenses (>= 26 PAPG) have surprisingly had these games go Under at a 40-18 (69%) rate since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-TB (o/u at 38.5)
NFL Team Strength Betting System #2:
Road favorites facing a great run defense (<= 100 RYAPG) have not been good bets in lower-totaled games (o/u <= 47), going just 79-73 SU but 58-89-5 ATS (39.5%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (-3.5 at TB)
TNF, SNF, and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
– In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 31-25 SU but 20-34-2 ATS (37%) in the last 56. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
· Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 9-24 SU and 14-19 ATS (42.4%) in their last 33, scoring just 16.3 PPG. In terms of totals, 21 of the last 31 (67.7%) TNF games featuring a home dog went UNDER.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 38.5)
TNF Team Trends
Cleveland 7 straight wins, 5-1-1 ATS
Pittsburgh is 1-6 SU and ATS in the last seven
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 22-27-1 SU but 29-19-2 ATS (60.4%) dating back to 2017.
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
· SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 16-33 SU and 19-30 ATS (38.8%) in their last 49 tries against teams off a win.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 17-27-1 SU and 19-25-1 ATS (43.2%) in their last 45, but those coming off a win are on a current 34-11 SU and 26-19 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
· Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 15-12 SU but 6-21 ATS (22.2%) in their last 27 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at CAR)
SNF Team Trends
Detroit 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in the last 12
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3.5 at CAR)
Detroit 10-1-1 Under in the last 12
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 51.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home teams have enjoyed little advantage in divisional MNF games of late, going 18-17 SU but 13-21-1 ATS (38.2%) in their last 35 tries.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs ATL)
· Blowout wins have been great momentum builders for road MNF teams, as those coming off wins by 20 points or more have gone 10-6 SU and ATS (62.5%) in their last 16 tries.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at NO)
· In concert with the theme of big underdogs faring well on MNF, teams scoring 17.5 PPG or less at the time have gone 12-17 SU but 17-12 ATS (58.6%) in their last 29 tries against teams scoring higher than that.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at NO)
MNF Team Trend
New Orleans 4-14-1 ATS in the last 19
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs ATL)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Bad PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Carolina 7-15 SU and 7-14-1 ATS in the last 22 primetime games
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
New Orleans 0-8 ATS skid at home
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-2.5 vs ATL)
Under the total PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Atlanta 17-5 to the Under in the last 22
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-NO (o/u at 47.5)
Cleveland 16-9-1 primetime Under run
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CLE (o/u at 38.5)
NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors
The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #2: NFL teams that have won their last three games outright, with the first being in upset fashion, then being favored in the latter games, are 94-22 SU and 74-42 ATS (63.8%) in the follow-up game when favored by 3 points or more.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 vs DEN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-31 SU but 33-11-2 ATS (75%) in their last 46 tries.
System Match (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+10.5 at MIN), LA CHARGERS (+7 at SEA)
NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-81 SU but 61-33 ATS (64.9%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE (+11.5 at BAL), MIAMI (+10.5 at MIN), LA CHARGERS (+7 at SEA)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 68-44 SU but 44-64-4 ATS (40.7%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-3 vs DAL)
Pre-Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.
Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-25-1 ATS since 2013, 69.9%, +30.6 Units, 36.7% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-4.5 at LVR)
Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-16-2 since 2013, 71.4%, +22.4 Units, 40% ROI, Grade 72)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
Pre-bye week system #5
Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 39-24-3 ATS since 2015, 61.9%, +12.6 Units, 20% ROI, Grade 64)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.
Carolina Panthers pre-bye week game: 10/4 vs. DETROIT
– The Panthers are on a stretch of 10-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, including an upset as double-digit home dogs vs. the Rams in 2025.
– Carolina is on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG
Trends Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 at DETROIT)
Kansas City Chiefs pre-bye week game: 10/4 at LAS VEGAS
Kansas City has gone 6-2 SU and ATS in its last eight pre-bye week games.
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-4.5 at LVR)
The Chiefs are on a 7-2-1 Under the total surge in pre-bye week divisional contests, games producing 32.5 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER) KC-LVR (o/u at 47.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) PITTSBURGH at (102) CLEVELAND
* Home teams have won and covered nine straight games between Pittsburgh and Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs PIT)
(251) INDIANAPOLIS vs (252) WASHINGTON
* Underdogs are 4-2-1 ATS in the IND-WSH non-conference set since 1999
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+3.5 vs IND)
(253) NEW ENGLAND at (254) BUFFALO
* Road teams are 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five of the Patriots-Bills AFC East rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (+6.5 at BUF)
(255) NY JETS at (256) CHICAGO
* CHICAGO has won and covered their last three instances hosting NY Jets
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-3.5 vs NYJ)
(257) ARIZONA at (258) NY GIANTS
* ARIZONA is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings with NYG
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-2.5 at NYG)
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Cardinals-Giants series in New York
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARI-NYG (o/u at 44.5)
(259) DALLAS at (260) HOUSTON
* Road teams are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five of Cowboys-Texans non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+3 at HOU)
(261) JACKSONVILLE at (262) CINCINNATI
* Over the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Jaguars-Bengals non-divisional AFC series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): JAX-CIN (o/u at 51.5)
(263) GREEN BAY at (264) TAMPA BAY
* Under the total is on a 7-2 surge in the GB-TB series at Raymond James Stadium
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-TB (o/u at 38.5)
* Underdogs have covered four straight in the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs GB)
(265) LA RAMS at (266) PHILADELPHIA
* PHILADELPHIA is 14-4 SU and 14-3-1 ATS versus the Rams since 1995
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+3 vs LAR)
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAR-PHI (o/u at 43.5)
(267) TENNESSEE at (268) BALTIMORE
* Road teams have covered the last four non-neutral meetings between TEN and BAL
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+11.5 at BAL)
(269) MIAMI at (270) MINNESOTA
* MINNESOTA has covered three straight games with Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-10.5 vs MIA)
(271) DENVER at (272) SAN FRANCISCO
* Home teams have won and covered the last three games between DEN and SF
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-3 vs DEN)
(273) KANSAS CITY at (274) LAS VEGAS
* LAS VEGAS is 2-3 SU but 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups with Kansas City
Trend Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+4.5 vs KC)
(275) LA CHARGERS at (276) SEATTLE
* Underdogs are 7-4 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in the last 11 non-pick ‘em games between LAC and SEA
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+7 at SEA)
(277) DETROIT at (278) CAROLINA
* Home teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the Lions-Panthers set
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (+3.5 vs DET)
(279) ATLANTA at (280) NEW ORLEANS
* Underdogs are 3-5 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Falcons-Saints NFC South rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+2.5 at NO)
NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami) as well as re-tread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: PIT-CLE(+2.5), NE-BUF(-6.5), TEN-BAL(-11.5), ARI(-2.5)-NYG, MIA(+10.5)-MIN, KC-LVR(+4.5))
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 170-189-10 ATS (47.4%). Road/Neutral games – 196-176-7 ATS (52.7%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, LAS VEGAS
– Rookie head coaches have won as big favorites. In fact, as favorites of 4.5 points or more since 2016, rookie head coaches are 78-13 SU, good for 85.7% outright, and have gone just 46-43-2 ATS, a covering rate of 51.7%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BUFFALO, BALTIMORE
– As smaller favorites of -4 or fewer, rookie head coaches have gone 101-73 SU but 74-88-11 ATS (45.7%) over the last decade.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA
– Ironically, it’s in the games where coaching figures to matter most (+1 to +3 small underdog lines) where rookie head coaches are able to hold their own best against the point spread. Their record in this line window over the last decade is 73-80-2 SU and 85-68-2 ATS (55.6%).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
– Take a look at these ATS winning percentages by opponent type since 2016: Divisional games 127-137-4 ATS (48.1%), Non-Conference games 104-93-8 ATS (52.8%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MIAMI
– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#9 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 193-206-15 ATS, good for 48.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, ARIZONA, MIAMI, LAS VEGAS
– Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 101-112-2 ATS (47.4%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 72-85-6 ATS (45.9%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, LAS VEGAS
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: PIT(-2.5)-CLE, TEN(+11.5)-BAL, ARI-NYG(+2.5), ATL(+2.5)-NO)
– Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 64-54 ATS (54.2%). Road/Neutral games – 58-64 ATS (47.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NY GIANTS
– Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 107-70 SU but just 71-95-11 ATS, for 42.8%!
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
– Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 68-106 ATS (39.1%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, TENNESSEE, NY GIANTS, ATLANTA
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a respectable 90-83 ATS (52%) record in their first seasons, including 40-32 ATS (55.6%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 148-183 ATS (44.7%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters this week include Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay).
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are running hot the last four years
· Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.7% straight up and 51.2% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2006. The results of the last four seasons are much better. In fact, the 15 rookie QBs over the last four seasons have put together a collective record of 82-106 SU (43.6%) and 103-78-7 ATS (56.9%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs GB)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been solid for rookie starting quarterbacks
– Since 2018, rookie QBs have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 60-75 SU but 77-57 ATS (57.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+3.5 vs GB)
NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems
These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs for different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas), Geno Smith (NY Jets), and Kyler Murray (Minnesota).
(Games this week: NYJ(+3.5)-CHI, MIA-MIN(-10.5), KC-LVR(+4.5))
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
· I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in month of October, going 46-42 SU and 46-39-3 ATS (54.1%) since 2009.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS, MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
· The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 31-55 SU and 35-50-1 ATS (41.2%).
System Match (FADE): NY JETS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #7 – Non-conference matchups have been an absolute struggle for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams over the last five years
· Since 2021, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have struggled horribly against non-conference opponents, going 18-35 SU and 16-36-1 ATS (30.8%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, MINNESOTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QBs have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
· In their last 71 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 35-36 SU and 30-40-1 ATS (42.9%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA, LAS VEGAS
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 –Veteran quarterbacks have proven relatively trustworthy as big favorites at home with their new teams
· Since 2009, veteran starting quarterbacks facing home chalk lines of 5.5 points or more have been quite successful, going 38-5 SU and 28-13-2 ATS (68.3%). Under the total is also 27-15-1 (64.3%) in those games.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIA-MIN (o/u at 38.5)
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as smaller road underdogs with new teams
· Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 41-34 SU and 51-24 ATS (68%) when playing as road underdogs of +5.5 points or fewer. The last 27 such games are 18-9 Under the total (66.7%) as well.
System Match (PLAY): NY JETS
System Match (PLAY UNDER): NYJ-CHI (o/u at 43.5)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here is a quick tabulation of how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)
The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus .500, while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion, while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 71-51 ATS (58.2%) record for +14.9 units and an ROI of +12.2%! There has been a lot of debate in recent years in regards to the true value of home-field advantage and it seems when bettors put less stock in it, they win.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, LA RAMS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 219-260 ATS (45.7%) for -67.0 units. With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS, NEW ORLEANS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 217-265 ATS (45%) for -74.5 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, BUFFALO, LAS VEGAS, NEW ORLEANS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 128-108 ATS (54.2%). This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, HOUSTON, NY JETS, MIAMI, DENVER, SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets have backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5-points favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 139-115 ATS (54.7%) record for +12.5 units. We will be tracking this one for the first time this season, as it has some sense to it, with bettors winning more when avoiding the larger spread games.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NY GIANTS, LA RAMS, TAMPA BAY, DETROIT
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: What is the definition of a “big public favorite” that savvy bettors should be willing to fade? Well, over the last three years, when a “super-majority” handle of 77% or higher got behind an NFL favored team of 6.5 points or more, these groups have gone just 14-26 ATS (35%) for -14.6 units and an ROI of -36.5%.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, these majority groups are just 139-157 ATS (47%) and 138-155 ATS (47.1%), respectively. This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, DETROIT, NEW ORLEANS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 145-114 ATS (56%) record for +19.6 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 82-58 ATS for 58.6% and +18.2 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS, DALLAS, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS, NY JETS, SAN FRANCISCO, DETROIT
Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 186-203 ATS (47.8%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BUFFALO, BALTIMORE, MINNESOTA
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 166-127 ATS (56.7%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NE-BUF, JAX-CIN, DAL-HOU, KC-LVR, DEN-SF, DET-CAR, ATL-NO
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in a NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-56 ATS (54.1%).
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): PIT-CLE, ARI-NYG
DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (3-7 for -4.7 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): JAX-CIN, DAL-HOU, NYJ-CHI, KC-LVR, DEN-SF, DET-CAR
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a super-majority (>=64%) of handle has been on the Over, but DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group has lost regularly, going just 110-125 (46.8%) for -27.5 units over the past three seasons. Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NE-BUF, NYJ-CHI, MIA-MIN
This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +2.5 (+5.0)
2(tie). DALLAS +3 (+3.4)
PHILADELPHIA +3 (+3.4)
4(tie). JACKSONVILLE +2.5 (+2.3)
CAROLINA +3.5 (+2.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -11.5 (+2.0)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+1.7)
3. CHICAGO -3.5 (+1.6)
4. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+1.5)
5. SEATTLE -7 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAROLINA +3.5 (+6.6)
2. LAS VEGAS +4.5 (+3.9)
3(tie). CLEVELAND +2.5 (+3.4)
NY GIANTS +2.5 (+3.4)
5. NY JTES +3.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEATTLE -7 (+3.8)
2. BUFFALO -6.5 (+3.0)
3(tie). SAN FRANCISCO -3 (+2.8)
NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+2.8)
5. MINNESOTA -10.5 (+2.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-TB OVER 38.5 (+1.7)
2. DAL-HOU OVER 48.5 (+1.4)
3. DET-CAR OVER 51.5 (+1.2)
4. TEN-BAL OVER 42.5 (+0.9)
5. LAR-PHI OVER 43.5 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NE-BUF UNDER 48.5 (-2.7)
2. JAX-CIN UNDER 51.5 (-1.9)
3. IND-WAS UNDER 47.5 (-1.8)
4. NYJ-CHI UNDER 43.5 (-1.6)
5. LAC-SEA UNDER 42.5 (-1.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +2.5 (+5.6)
2. NEW ENGLAND +6.5 (+5.0)
3. PHILADELPHIA +3 (+4.5)
4(tie). MIAMI +10.5 (+3.7)
LA CHARGERS +7 (+3.7)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO -3.5 (+3.2)
2. KANSAS CITY -4.5 (+2.1)
3. BALTIMORE -11.5 (+1.1)
4. NEW ORLEANS -2.5 (+0.8)
5. INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GB-TB OVER 38.5 (+6.6)
2. DET-CAR OVER 51.5 (+2.7)
3. TEN-BAL OVER 42.5 (+2.2)
4. LAR-PHI OVER 43.5 (+1.3)
5. MIA-MIN OVER 38.5 (+0.6)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATL-NO UNDER 47.5 (-4.6)
2. KC-LVR UNDER 47.5 (-3.1)
3. NYJ-CHI UNDER 43.5 (-2.5)
4. DAL-HOU UNDER 48.5 (-1.4)
5. JAX-CIN UNDER 51.5 (-1.1)
