As we continue our search for NFL player props where I see eye to eye with OptaAI‘s player prop projections, a few plays jumped out to me in Week 6. We’ve got some exploitable matchups, a little running back drama, and a quarterback injury that allowed me to jump in on a situation I really liked.
Tre Tucker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Through five games, Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards (187.4) to opposing wide receivers. I’ve already got plays on Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty to go over their receiving yardage totals. If you wanted to add Kirk Cousins completions or passing yards to the mix, I wouldn’t talk you out of it either.
And now I’m adding Tre Tucker Over 38.5 receiving yards because that number feels way too low.
For starters, the Raiders are home underdogs. If the oddsmakers have this game pegged correctly, Las Vegas should find itself throwing the football to keep pace with Buffalo. Tucker has cleared this number in four consecutive games and ranks third on the Raiders in targets this season. But what really stands out is how consistently Buffalo has allowed opposing receivers to clear this number. In several games, it hasn’t been just one receiver. It’s been at least two.
Here’s the damage through five weeks:
Week 1 vs. Dolphins: Caleb Douglas (94 yards), Malik Washington (53 yards)
Week 2 at Chargers: Tre’ Harris (53 yards)
Week 3 at Saints: Chris Olave (107 yards), Devaughn Vele (39 yards)
Week 4 vs. Chiefs: Tyquan Thornton (111 yards), Xavier Worthy (70 yards)
Week 5 at Patriots: Kyle Williams (91 yards), DeMario Douglas (65 yards), Efton Chism (57 yards)
That’s 10 opposing wide receivers who have cleared Tucker’s 38.5-yard number in just five games. This is exactly the kind of matchup Klint Kubiak should be looking to exploit. The Raiders don’t have another wide receiver consistently commanding the looks Tucker has been getting, and the game script should create plenty of opportunities.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Tucker for 48.68 receiving yards, a +12.9% edge to the over.
Najee Harris Over 23.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Giants had a golden opportunity last week to beat the Washington Commanders and take a commanding lead in the NFC East.
Instead, Cam Skattebo fumbled in overtime with New York already in field goal range at Washington’s 24-yard line. The Giants were fortunate to escape with a tie, but there’s no question that was a massive missed opportunity.
Skattebo can be a little unserious at times, and after that costly mistake, I wouldn’t be surprised if John Harbaugh decided to mix in a little more Najee Harris and Tyrone Tracy this week, especially considering the matchup.
The Saints are allowing the most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season (133.4). With Jameis Winston under center, the Giants would also be wise to establish some balance offensively rather than asking Winston to throw it all over the yard. We’ve seen how that movie can end.
Harris was signed late in the offseason for a reason. He’s not going to give you the explosiveness of Skattebo, but he’s still capable of being an effective and reliable runner, especially against a defense that has struggled this badly to stop the run. Harris has cleared 23.5 rushing yards in two of his four games this season. The math here isn’t particularly complicated. Give him seven or eight carries against this Saints front, and he should have a legitimate shot to clear this number.
Between the matchup, the potential for a slightly expanded role and the Giants’ need to protect Winston from himself, I like Harris to get enough work.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Harris for 35.75 rushing yards, a +24.4% edge to the over.
Chuba Hubbard Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This is a prop I initially liked but was planning to stay away from.
When Carolina opened as a 1.5-point underdog at Philadelphia, I had some reservations. The matchup was appealing, but I generally don’t love backing rushing overs on road underdogs, especially when the number is already north of 70 yards.
Then Jalen Hurts was ruled out with blood clots, and suddenly the Panthers went from road underdogs to 3.5-point favorites. That’s a pretty significant development when you’re betting on a running back’s workload.
Instead of potentially abandoning the run while playing from behind, Carolina could find itself feeding Hubbard in the fourth quarter to put the Eagles away. And let’s stop pretending this is the same Philadelphia defense that used to dominate the line of scrimmage. The Eagles are tied for allowing the 10th-most rushing yards to opposing running backs this season (100.4).
Just look at what they’ve allowed recently:
Week 5: Bhayshul Tuten: 72 rushing yards
Week 4: Kyren Williams: 80 rushing yards
Week 3: D’Andre Swift: 84 rushing yards
That’s three consecutive examples of running backs clearing Hubbard’s number against Philadelphia. Meanwhile, Hubbard has settled into a featured role with Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve.
In the two games since Brooks went down, Hubbard has delivered:
At Cleveland: 19 carries, 82 yards
Vs. Detroit: 20 carries, 122 yards
That’s 39 carries for 204 yards over his last two games.
Now Carolina comes off its bye week with a rested Hubbard, a favorable matchup and a legitimate opportunity to get above .500. This is a big spot for the Panthers, and I expect Hubbard to be a major part of the game plan. If Carolina plays from ahead as the spread now suggests, the volume should be there.
OptaAI agrees, projecting Hubbard for 80.35 rushing yards, a +5.6% edge to the over.
