🦬 Bills Mafia Invades Las Vegas — and the Sportsbooks
The blue-tinted crowd at Circa tells you everything you need to know: Bills Mafia has descended on Las Vegas for today’s game against the Raiders. And apparently, they brought their money.
At Circa, 76% of the bets and 61% of the money are on Buffalo.
The Bills opened as 6-point favorites, but the line curiously was at Buffalo -4.5 as of Saturday night. (DraftKings had Bills -5.5.)
Buffalo arrives off a 37-34 overtime victory over the Rams on Monday night and has emerged as the Super Bowl favorite at +700.
But Matt Youmans, who’s 20-12 in his NFL Best Bets columns this season, sees another side to the story:
“Buffalo fans are invading Las Vegas this weekend with full confidence in Josh Allen, who’s often the quarterback version of Superman. Allen is difficult to bet against, but a bad Buffalo defense is the other side of the story.”
>> See Matt’s Bills–Raiders Pick and Other Week 6 Best Bets
🏈 More NFL Best Bets for Sunday
Matt isn’t the only VSiN expert weighing in on Bills–Raiders. Wes Reynolds and Steve Makinen also have opinions on the game as part of their seven-play Week 6 cards.
>> Wes Reynolds: 7 NFL Best Bets
>> Steve Makinen: 7 NFL Best Bets
>> Dave Tuley’s Takes on Every NFL Game
Looking for a different way to attack Sunday’s slate? Adam Burke has been digging into the player prop and first-touchdown markets.
>> Adam Burke’s First Touchdown Scorer Picks
>> Adam’s Favorite NFL Player Props
⚡ BOLT’s Top Edge: 7-1 to the Under
BOLT’s top NFL player prop for Sunday is backed by a trend that’s 7-1 to the Under this season.
>> See BOLT’s Top NFL Player Prop
🏈 Get Ready for Sunday Kickoff
It’s an early start, with Texans–Jaguars in Paris at 9:30 a.m. ET.
VSiN has you covered all morning:
9 a.m.–Noon ET: Pro Football Tailgate Show with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard.
Noon–1 p.m. ET: Countdown to Kickoff with Stormy Buonantony and Jonathan Von Tobel.
One injury note to watch: Caleb Williams will start for the Bears against Atlanta. The line remained a pick’em at Circa.
>> NFL Week 6 Matchups, Picks and Previews
🧰 Your Sunday NFL Betting Toolkit
🤖 Opta AI NFL Player Prop Projections →
Sunday Matchups and Advanced Stats →
Every NFL Pick From VSiN Hosts and Guests →
🏆 What the Contest Players Are Betting . . .
Carolina is the overwhelming favorite of Circa Million contestants this week, but . . .
Of the 5,744 submitted cards, a remarkable 2,903 included Panthers -1 against Philadelphia. That’s 50.5% of all cards — and 86.2% of the contestants who made a selection in that matchup.
Here’s the catch: Circa Million lines were frozen before the Eagles announced that Jalen Hurts would miss the game because of a blood clot. The market subsequently moved to Carolina -3.5 before settling at -3 on Saturday.
That means contestants holding Panthers -1 have two points of line value, something many apparently couldn’t pass up.
The other popular Circa Million selections:
Browns +5.5: 2,321 selections (40.4% of cards)
Jaguars -2.5: 1,605
Bills -4.5: 1,354
Giants +1: 1,271
Cowboys +1: 1,271
>> See the Full Circa Contest Selections
⚡ VSiN Contest Players Agree on the Chargers
Two VSiN contests have reached the same conclusion about Chargers–Chiefs.
In the Circa Friday Football Invitational, five handicappers selected Chargers +8 against Kansas City. Not one took the Chiefs.
The EdgeBoost Average Joe contestants were nearly as emphatic: 307 of 416 selections — 74% — were on Chargers +8.
>> See the Average Joe Consensus Picks
>> See the Friday Football Invitational Selections
💰 Circa Survivor: Three Teams Carry the $25 Million Sweat
Just 2,908 entries remain alive in Circa Survivor. This week’s selections are heavily concentrated on three teams:
Rams: 901 selections
Patriots: 821
Colts: 703
That’s 2,425 of the 2,909 submitted selections — 83.4% — riding on just three teams. One entry failed to submit a pick.
One upset could eliminate hundreds of entries from the chase for $25 million.
🔥 The $513,333 No-Pick
In Circa Grandissimo, where each entry costs $100,000 and the winner takes $7.7 million, one contestant didn’t submit a selection. Circa was trying to sort out what happened as of late Saturday.
With 15 entries alive entering the week, each represented roughly $513,333 in implied prize-pool value.
Now just 14 entries remain, and 12 of them are on the Rams (6), Patriots (4) or Colts (2).
🏆 Still Want a Piece of Circa Survivor?
Missed the chance to enter Circa Survivor before the season? Survivor Sweat, the Official Contest Entry Marketplace of Circa Sports, lets you browse live entries and make offers to buy all or part of one.
The marketplace closes Sunday at 9:25 a.m. ET, five minutes before the first game, and reopens Monday at 11 a.m. ET.
>> Browse Live Survivor Entries Still Chasing $25 Million
🏈 Ohio State’s Win — and Loss
Ohio State survived Indiana 19-15 on Saturday, covering as a 2.5-point favorite — arguably by half a foot.
But the Buckeyes may have suffered a consequential loss. Quarterback Julian Sayin injured his right shoulder and is expected to miss several weeks.
>> Watch the Dramatic Ohio State–Indiana ending
It wasn’t a great Saturday to back big college football favorites, either.
Georgia (-19) lost to Auburn 27-24. Notre Dame (-10.5) fell to unbeaten BYU 28-24. Alabama (-7.5) lost to Tennessee, and Texas (-13) lost to Florida.
On the other hand, imagine parlaying all four underdogs — Auburn, Tennessee, Florida and BYU.
Every $1 wagered would have returned $739.43, as VSiN fan Bobby Decorte calculated.
>> See Bobby’s Four-Team Underdog Parlay Calculation
⚾ ALCS: Back to Even
We’ve got ourselves a best-of-three series.
The Rays beat the Guardians 7-3 Saturday night to even the American League Championship Series at two games apiece.
Game 5 is Sunday night.
>> Adam Burke’s Best Bets later today
🏀 Get Ready for the NBA Season
The NBA tips off Tuesday. Have you made your futures bets yet?
VSiN’s 44-page NBA Betting Guide features win-total predictions for all 30 teams, futures picks from nine VSiN experts and Steve Makinen’s preseason power ratings.
🏈 Help Us Handicap Monday Night Football
More than 1,200 readers have joined the VSiN Community. Now we’re looking for your best bets.
Who do you like in Monday night’s Commanders–49ers game?
Give us your pick, the number you’re betting and — most importantly — why you like it.
We’ll feature some of the most compelling arguments in Monday’s VSiN Daily.
