NFL underdogs continued their winning ways in Week 4, posting an 8-7-1 ATS record. Dogs are now 38-25 ATS (60%) overall. Dogs that missed the playoffs the previous season are 28-14 ATS (67%). Meanwhile, over/unders split 8-8 in Week 4. Unders still hold an edge on the season, posting a 38-26 (59%) record through the first month of play. The top spot for totals has been divisional unders, which are off a blistering 17-5 (77%) start. Primetime unders are 9-4 (69%) and windy unders 10 MPH are 12-4 (75%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine five NFL Week 5 games receiving sharp action from respected bettors.
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Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 42.5) at Washington Commanders
The Titans (2-2) have rebounded from an 0-2 start and have now won two straight games. Tennessee is coming off a 24-17 win over the Colts, winning outright as a 4-point road dog. Meanwhile, the Commanders (1-3) have dropped three straight after winning the season opener. Washington just fell to Dallas 25-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Titans listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tennessee. However, despite 87% of bets backing the Titans, we've seen this line fall from 3 down to 2.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Commanders, with pros jumping on Washington at the key number of %plussign%3. The Commanders are only receiving 13% of bets but 34% of money, a sharp 21% bet vs dollar discrepancy. Washington also has buy-low value as a dog that didn't cover the previous week against a favorite that did cover.
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 44) at New York Jets
The Dolphins (3-1) just suffered their first loss of the season, falling to the Bengals 27-15 and failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Jets (2-2) just beat the Steelers 24-20, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Miami listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is hammering the Dolphins, which has driven the line up from Miami -3 to -3.5. But now we're starting to see sharp buyback on the Jets plus the hook, as the Jets %plussign%3.5 is juiced to -120 and some shops are falling back down to 3. Essentially, we are now looking at a sharp line freeze on the Jets, with pros grabbing New York plus the hook at home. The Jets are only receiving 29% of bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of Week 5. New York also has value as a divisional dog and a conference dog %plussign%6 or less (60% ATS since 2019). Teddy Bridgewater will start for the Dolphins while Zach Wilson will be making his second start coming back from injury. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 45.5 to 44. Divisional unders are 17-5 (77%) this season.
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 48) at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers (2-2) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 34-24 win over the Texans, covering as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Browns (2-2) have lost two of their last three and just fell to the Falcons 23-20, losing outright as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is all over Los Angeles, with 66% of bets laying the chalk with the Chargers. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 3, signaling liability on the home dog Browns. In other words, the books are reluctant to raise this line to 3.5 for fear of giving the hook to contrarian Browns backers. Cleveland has value as a buy-low team who didn't cover the previous week against a sell-high team that did cover. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Browns here, are 28-14 ATS (67%). Myles Garrett is expected to return for Cleveland after missing last week due to a car accident. The Chargers are also in a fade spot as a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. ET game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 48.5)
The Bengals (2-2) are riding a two-game win streak and just took down the Dolphins 27-15, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens have dropped two of their last three games and just fell to the Bills 23-20, pushing as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with Lamar Jackson at home. However, despite 63% of bets backing Baltimore, we've seen the Ravens fall from -3.5 to -3, signaling sharp money grabbing the Bengals plus the hook. Cincinnati has value as a divisional dog and a primetime dog (57% ATS since 2019). Joe Burrow is 13-7 ATS (65%) in his career as a dog. Cincinnati also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Ravens played on Sunday. Despite 72% of bets taking the over, the total has remained stagnant at 48.5. This signals some wiseguy line freeze action on the under. Primetime unders are 9-4 this season and 59% since 2019. Divisional unders are 17-5 (77%).
San Fransisco 49ers (-6.5, 38.5) at Carolina Panthers
The 49ers (2-2) are coming off a big 24-9 win over the Rams in primetime, covering as 2-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Panthers (1-3) just fell to the Cardinals 26-16, losing outright as 1-point home favorites. This line opened with the 49ers listed as low as a 3-point road favorite. Pros and Joes are both pounding San Francisco, steaming the 49ers up from -3 to -6.5. The 49ers are receiving 83% of bets but 89% of money. Jimmy Garoppolo is 17-9 ATS (65%) on the road in his career. Now that the line has moved so much, the 49ers could be worth a look in a teaser, dropping the line from -6.5 to -0.5, which goes through the key number of 3. Both teams are averaging roughly 18 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where the 49ers are only allowing 12 PPG compared to 21 PPG for the Panthers. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 39.5 to 38.5. The 49ers are 4-0 to the under. The Panthers are 3-1 to the under.
