Five Super Bowl LX Bets to Consider Right Now

Super Bowl

After reaching the playoffs six years in a row and coming up short of the Super Bowl six straight times, Josh Allen and the Bills have to hope seven is their lucky number. The betting public believes in Buffalo, for better or worse.

A behind-the-counter look into NFL futures wagering at Las Vegas books this summer reveals several trends have surfaced across the board. A handful of teams are hot, including a few longer shots, but the Bills are becoming the most popular play in the market.

At Circa Sports, Buffalo is the new Super Bowl favorite at 6-1 odds, leaping over reigning conference champions Philadelphia (+660) and Kansas City (+750). The Bills opened at +800 before attracting the most volume on the board, including a pair of $25,000 wagers, according to Circa vice president of operations Mike Palm.

Allen was voted league MVP last season and led Buffalo to playoff victories over Denver and Baltimore before falling 32-29 in the AFC title game at Kansas City. In the aftermath of their embarrassing loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have dropped from +535.

“The team with the most tickets on it is the Bills,” Red Rock sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “If you look at their division with the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots, you would think there’s a good chance Buffalo is going to be the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the AFC. But I really like the Ravens more than the Bills.”

Bookmakers rarely fear the favorites because short odds don’t amount to dangerous liability. At Circa, Baltimore (+650) is the second choice on the board and one of four teams at single-digit odds. At the Westgate Superbook, the Eagles are the favorites at +600, followed by the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens each at +700, and the Lions recently moved to +800.

“The public likes the Bills, but 7-1 takes a while to add up,” Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons said.

The Westgate took a $20,000 wager on the Lions at 10-1, Salmons said, and that was enough to significantly move the odds at this time of the year. At Circa, where Palm said there is “nothing really on the Lions,” the odds on Detroit are 14-1.

“Our largest liability is on the Lions at 10-1,” DraftKings oddsmaker Matt Grill said. “I’m surprised, but the bettors believe in them. Of the favorites, that’s our biggest loser by far.”

The Lions won 15 games to claim the top seed in the NFC last season. However, after Washington rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels outplayed Jared Goff and the Commanders manhandled the Lions in a 45-31 playoff win, the dominoes started falling in Detroit. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (Bears) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (Jets) took head coaching jobs prior to the Lions losing two starters on their offensive line.

“You have to wonder if the Lions will take a little step back,” Esposito said. “Ben Johnson was good at getting the best out of Goff.”

After the consensus top five teams on the Super Bowl futures board — Bills, Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Lions — the fun for bettors really begins in the hunt for longshots.

“People are looking for value instead of betting the low odds,” Esposito said.

A year ago, the Eagles were highlighted in this column at 14-1 odds. Sharp money showed over the summer on Philadelphia, which was my first futures bet last year and a team Salmons bet early at 22-1.

“The Eagles figure to be solid, but you never know with injuries and it’s a tougher schedule,” Salmons said. “But they still figure to be as good as anyone in the NFC.”

For bettors looking to beat the favorites with teams at double-digit odds, here are my five best bets:

BENGALS (20-1)

Cincinnati was upset in its first two home games — by the Patriots in Week 1 and by the Commanders in Week 3 — to wipe out about half of the Circa Survivor field. For those who were burned by the Bengals last season and feel hesitant to buy in this time, that’s understandable. Aside from Trey Hendrickson, who led the league with 17.5 sacks, the Bengals ranked either below average or bad in most major defensive categories.

The offense is a much different story. Joe Burrow led the NFL in passing yards (4,918) and touchdowns (43) and remains complemented by receiver Ja’Marr Chase and arguably the best set of playmakers in the league. I bet Burrow at +650 to win MVP and still will consider other futures plays on this team, but the defense raises doubts. Prior to the Chiefs’ three-year AFC reign, Cincinnati reached the Super Bowl in 2022, falling 23-20 to the Rams.

RAMS (22-1)

My first bet of this offseason was on the Rams at 30-1 in early March, around the same time VSiN host Mitch Moss said he made the same play. We were not alone because there has been a major move in Los Angeles’ odds, which are now 16-1 at Circa. DraftKings offers the best current price at 22-1.

“The team we actually have the most liability on — and I agree with this — is the Rams,” Esposito said.

Veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford, 37, still has what it takes to win another Super Bowl and should be more productive this season with dynamic receivers Davante Adams and Puka Nacua. A defensive front seven led by Jared Verse is loaded with young talent. Last season, the Rams rallied from a 1-4 start to finish 10-7, making it four NFC West titles and six playoff appearances in coach Sean McVay’s eight years. Stafford had a shot to stop the Eagles’ run to the Super Bowl, but his late drive died deep in Philadelphia territory in a 28-22 loss.

“If you look back, the Rams gave the Eagles their best game,” Salmons said. “The Rams are so much more of a complete team than the 49ers, but the only issue is the schedule. If the 49ers don’t win 10 games, they should fire everyone because their schedule is so easy. I don’t like the 49ers’ team at all.”

VIKINGS (30-1)

The most noticeable change in Minnesota will be the quarterback. Sam Darnold, who passed for 35 touchdowns in a breakout year, is out and replaced by J.J. McCarthy, who missed his rookie season with a knee injury. Darnold benefited by learning under coach Kevin O’Connell, but Darnold was a disaster in the Vikings’ final two games — blowout losses to the Lions and Rams — and McCarthy should be a capable young starter. After finishing 14-3, the Vikings’ expectations have surprisingly plummeted in the betting market.

“They can’t stop betting the Vikings,” Salmons said. “I’m not a Darnold guy, but there’s no way McCarthy can be that good in his first year.”

The NFC North was the strongest division in the NFL last season, at least until all three playoff teams busted out without a win. Green Bay might be the team about to break through, but the division appears up for grabs among the Lions, Packers and Vikings.

“I keep thinking the Packers will take a step forward and they kind of run in place,” Palm said. “We’re seeing Vikings’ money coming in.”

Instead of a Super Bowl play on Minnesota, the better bet is probably the win total. Palm and Moss have bet the Vikings Over 8.5 wins.

BRONCOS (40-1)

It’s a lot to ask of second-year quarterback Bo Nix to win an AFC headlined by Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and Lamar Jackson. But I did make two other plays on the Broncos — Over 9.5 wins (+110) and to win the AFC West (+350) — so I’m a believer in this team.

“It wouldn’t be a stunner to me if the Chiefs don’t win their division,” Esposito said. “The Super Bowl blowout was a reality check for them.”

Denver returns 20 starters and made key additions to a roster that suddenly ranks among the strongest in the NFL on both sides of the ball. A sophomore slump for Nix is a possibility, but Payton’s offense should improve after ranking 10th in scoring at 25 PPG. The defense led the league in sacks (63), ranked third in scoring (18.3 PPG) and looks even better. The Broncos, who were a blocked field goal away from sweeping the Chiefs last year, have what I grade as the best defense and deepest roster in the NFL’s toughest division.

STEELERS (67-1)

This is a contrarian opinion, and while I do like this Pittsburgh team more than most, it’s a play on the number as much as anything. Circa is dealing almost double the 35-1 price offered at DraftKings. The Steelers ranked eighth in scoring defense (20.4 PPG) and made some shrewd moves in free agency and the draft. Almost no one believes 41-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers has much left, which could be a reason to think he’s got a surprise season left in him.

“To me, Rodgers doesn’t really move the needle at all,” Esposito said.

Circa, DraftKings, Red Rock and Westgate bookmakers are reporting action on some other intriguing teams — including the Commanders (18-1), Chargers (28-1), Texans (35-1), Cowboys (60-1) and Cardinals (80-1) — and there’s plenty of time this summer to shop around for the best prices.