Green Bay Packers 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The demise of the Packers sans Aaron Rodgers was wildly overblown. Okay, so maybe nobody expected a “demise,” but Jordan Love stepped in and played really well, including a masterful performance in the Wild Card Round to knock out the Cowboys in Arlington. It was the first playoff appearance without a QB named Rodgers or Favre since the Packers went 5-3-1 in the strike-shortened 1982 season with Lynn Dickey at the helm. He had a 12/14 TD/INT ratio, by the way.

Love’s 32 TD tosses ranked second in the NFL and he helped the team overcome a 2-5 start to make the postseason. Of the NFC North teams, the Packers have had the quietest offseason and opinions seem split on what the 2024 season has in store.

 

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Offense

The one area where the Packers will look different is at running back. Most of the rest of the roster looks pretty similar, which oftentimes leads to a little bit of a negative sentiment going into the season among bettors and pundits. This was a top-five offense by EPA/play and a top-five passing attack.

Josh Jacobs comes in looking to infuse a little life into the ground game, as Aaron Jones went to the rival Vikings. The Packers still had a top-10 running game by EPA (expected points added), so it was hardly a weakness. 

All the receivers are a year older. Love is a year older. The offensive line has been retooled and we’ll never have to wonder if David Bakhtiari will play with his “questionable” designation or not. This was objectively a good offense that ranked fifth in third down conversion rate and only turned the ball over 18 times. Unless Love has some sort of unforeseen drop in production, this will be a good group again.

Defense

The Packers only forced 18 takeaways last season, which led to finishing 22nd in points allowed per drive. This was a good, but not great, unit and the advanced metrics were a little more damning than the traditional numbers, as the Packers ranked 23rd in EPA/play against. They were equally below average against the pass and the run by EPA.

In other words, they more or less profiled as a 9-8 team, which is precisely what they were. New DC Jeff Hafley is a fascinating hire. He coached defensive backs in the NFL for seven years before going the college route to be the co-DC at Ohio State. Then, he was the Boston College head coach for four years. He’ll run a much different style from Joe Barry, who is now with the Dolphins.

Out of 11 draft picks, the Packers took six defenders in the back seven, so that’s the area they’ll look to improve under Hafley.

Outlook

There is nothing flashy about the Packers, who have a high floor and probably have a capped ceiling. It would be a bit surprising to see Love play better than he did last season. The defense might be a bit better. But, it feels like a team with a very limited range of outcomes, so the win total line of 9.5 feels dead on. The schedule is tougher, though, so I lean Under as opposed to Over.

Green Bay Packers Pick: Under 9.5 Wins

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