Houston Texans 2024 Predictions and Odds:

The Texans went from worst to first in the AFC South with a rookie head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and a rookie quarterback (CJ Stroud), so things can change fast in this division. One of many changes is Houston being the favorite to repeat as division champions. However, with the favorite’s role, the Texans get the division’s first-place schedule. While it is manageable early, the schedule gets more daunting as the season progresses as they play five division champions (Bills, Lions, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Ravens) plus two other playoff teams (Dolphins, Packers). Expectations are certainly high for the Texans, considering they played 16 games last year in the 1:00 pm ET window, and this season have four primetime games. Will the lights be too bright for the Texans?

Offense

CJ Stroud settled the debate of who was the best quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft class by winning the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud joined Joe Montana and Tom Brady as the only quarterbacks over the last 50 years to lead the league in both average passing yards per game (273.9) and TD-to-INT ratio (23/5). 

 

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He will also have some additional potential weapons this year as general manager Nick Caserio traded for both Joe Mixon, to improve a running game that has struggled for the last five years and was 22nd in the league last season, and Stefon Diggs, who posted his sixth consecutive 100-reception season but had reached an impasse with Buffalo. Both Diggs, on a restructured deal, and Nico Collins (80 catches, 1297 yards, 8 TD) are in their contract years.

One of the main culprits for the lack of a running game was an oft-injured offensive line as right guard Shaq Mason was the only player to start all 17 games. Laremy Tunsil is back to anchor the left side and assuming better health, this unit should be improved in the second year of offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik’s zone scheme. 

Defense

Caserio was nothing if not active in the free agent market, especially on defense, where 14 free agents were brought in and five draft picks have also entered the fold to reinforce a unit that faces a murderer’s row of quarterbacks in 2024.

The Texans set a franchise record with 46 sacks and have the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year with Will Anderson (seven sacks), but a lot of new faces up front to join him. Danielle Hunter comes in after a 16.5-sack season with the Vikings along with Denico Autry, who had a career-high 11.5 sacks last season in Tennessee.

Houston plays a 4-2-5 with just two linebackers. One of them will be Azeez Al-Shaair (Tennessee) who reunites with Ryans from their time in San Francisco. He will team up with leading returning tackler Christian Harris.

Derek Stingley Jr. mans the left corner position and rookie second-rounder Kamari Lassiter out of Georgia will get the first crack on the right side. Former first-rounders CJ Henderson (Carolina) and Jeff Okudah (Atlanta) were brought in for depth. Jimmie Ward is Ryans’ defensive leader from their time in San Francisco. He, Jalen Pitre, and rookie Calen Bullock out of USC are all quick, physical safeties.

Outlook

The Houston Texans are in an unfamiliar role of being the division favorite and Jacksonville found out last season that the favorite’s role in a topsy-turvy division like the AFC South was not an easy position in which to be. 

Houston also has to face Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Prescott, Rodgers, Tua, Love, Goff, Lawrence, plus three other first-round quarterback picks in the last two years with Anthony Richardson, Caleb Williams, and JJ McCarthy. 

Nevertheless, this is the most talented team in the division and its AFC South competitors do not look improved enough to overtake them.

Houston Texans Pick: Over 9.5 wins

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