How to bet NFL games when teams rest starters:
Before I reveal my updated analytics on the NFL regular-season finale “resting starters” games, let me just share that I don’t like annually having to cover this subject, but it’s a necessary evil, as these so-called meaningless games, which seem more like exhibition games, can provide value for bettors. The unfortunate thing for the 2025-26 season is that this phenomenon unofficially started last week, with a few teams already making lineup decisions to benefit their health, not their won-lost records.
Of course, we know as bettors that no game with a money line, point spread or total should ever be referred to as “meaningless,” particularly in the NFL, where surely the viewership or wagering interest won’t wane regardless. In fact, not surprisingly, when lines for this week’s games were released, I heard from several VSiN readers within 24 hours asking me to update the “resting starters” games stats and systems I have been logging for the last decade-plus.
As of Tuesday, this season presents five more games where teams figure to be fully invested in resting key players, notably quarterbacks, key skill-position guys or impactful defensive studs. Five is the same number as last season. You can see those games and all other recent similar contests in the “resting starters log” below.
For good reason, most fans and analysts of the NFL choose to focus on the games that impact the playoff race in the season’s final week, but if you’re like me and are looking for value everywhere, these so-called “meaningless” games can prove to be rewarding games to handicap.
Unfortunately, recent seasons have acclimated us to the process of trying to handicap games in which teams don’t have their full allotment of players. The degree of tanking varies, too. Some teams sit their studs completely, while others think along the lines of at least keeping the players in sync by having them play a quarter or two. One of the worst exhibitions of tanking occurred last year when the Chiefs, sitting comfortably in the No. 1 seed in the AFC, essentially laid down at Denver in a 38-0 decision, allowing the Broncos to clinch a playoff spot.
Making matters worse, there’s a growing trend of eliminated teams resting key players to preserve their health. Despite this uncertainty and the difficulty that comes with handicapping teams that aren’t at full strength, many bettors have trouble staying away from these games. They figure that with lines so far out of whack, oddsmakers must be making a mistake. Hats off to those bettors, as I will illustrate that these games have proved to hold a ton of value.
The rule of thumb in these cases is that if the line looks too abnormal, or it moves significantly throughout the week, you can pretty much book the fact that the coach of the playoff-clinched team has indicated some sort of starter resting strategy that the experts behind the counter have found through due diligence. Those are basically the two giveaways … line not normal or line moving rapidly. The trickiest spot here is when a team’s playoff prospects are affected by an early game result and they play late. For as much as the NFL tries to avoid these landmines with flex scheduling, sometimes there’s nothing that can be done. These lines can change dramatically by the minute as playoff scenarios play out. Of the five games that qualified as “resting starters” games last year, two saw a line move of 3.5 points or more from release to close.
I used to try to stay away from these games entirely until I saw some of the trends that have developed. In most cases, bettors would rather play on games where the teams’ motivational levels are equal, or at least more measurable. However, if you are a bettor who has access to an individual player’s database from which you can easily interchange starters and backups and measure the line variation by doing so, perhaps you have the advantage in these games.
I have taken a snapshot of the last 17 years of regular-season finales and pulled out those in which one of the teams either rested its starting quarterback entirely or pulled him at some point in favor of the backup. These are games in which the lines differed wildly from their projected power rating line, or moved significantly all the way up till kickoff. In almost all cases, the teams resting the key starters were in fact playoff qualifiers that had nothing to gain by winning the game. As you look at the chart, perhaps you can recall being on the right or wrong side in these games.
Keep in mind that these are professional athletes playing these games, and all of them are playing for their livelihood. Perhaps some have contract incentives they need to achieve in the season finale as well. Therefore, don’t assume that just because a team decides to rest its studs that the rest of the team isn’t dead set on winning that game. The truth is that in most of these games, there is a significant difference in the number of wins each team has to that point, and the playoff qualifying team is naturally deeper. In fact, their motivation may also actually be greater since the opponent is merely playing out the string, hoping to move up the draft board or looking forward to a tropical vacation the week after the game.
In the chart, I have logged the opponents, highlighted the “resting starters” team in gray, and given you the line, score and which team won, lost and covered. I’ve also detailed the totals. Please note that this list is not “official” and other games over the years may have qualified, but the point spread wasn’t nearly as affected. Still, for our purposes, the list shown gives us a great idea of the type of results you can expect when handicapping these dreaded “meaningless” games.
Interpreting the Results
In no way is handicapping these games as easy as just backing the team that is playing at “full strength.” In fact, if anything, we would recommend playing the underdog or road team if you were to just follow any set path. In fact, since 2011, underdogs in the games in which teams are resting starters are on a 26-14 ATS run (65%). For totals, blind plays on Over would be the preferred option. Here are some other trends to consider from these games.
Over the last 14 years, the team resting its starters has a nice ATS edge of 23-16-2 ATS (59%) mark in Week 17/18 games. However, they are just 15-26 outright.
— Teams resting their starters against opponents that had at least six fewer wins are just 9-13 SU and 8-11-3 ATS (42.1%) over the last 17 seasons.
— Lately, road teams have performed exceptionally in resting starters games, going 18-20 SU and 24-12-1 ATS (66.7%) over the last 13 seasons, pulling eight outright upsets. However, they were just 1-4 ATS last season.
— When the team resting the starters has still wound up being favored, those teams have gone just 3-5 SU and 1-6-1 ATS (14.3%) since 2012.
— History has shown that following the biggest line moves has paid off for bettors on “resting starters” games. Since 2017, 14 Week 17/18 games have seen line moves of five points or more from open to close. Bettors are 7-5-2 ATS (58.3%) in such games. Consider that as you track the Week 18 lines this year. As of Tuesday, Buffalo had gone from -12.5 to -7, while Denver had gone from -8.5 to -12.5.
— Games of this nature tend to be higher scoring than expected, as Over the total is 31-15 (67.4%) since 2010, with the games producing 44.8 PPG on totals averaging 40.6.
— Bettors tend to bet the totals for these games down as they open on an average of 42.1 and close over a point lower, typically at 40.6.
Summary
In general, there are some nice trends and other strategies to use for dealing with the “resting starters” games. My best advice is not to assume that resting starters equals tanking the game. If you choose to still back these teams, they have proven far more successful in the underdog role. You’ll also want to avoid automatically downgrading the the offenses because backup quarterbacks are in place. Remember, there are also a lot of second-string defenders in as well. Bettors have tended to do this in recent years, and it has cost them as Under bets have lost consistently in these games.
If you’re wondering which teams figure to be affected by starter resting strategies this weekend, this is what we know as of Tuesday.
1. GREEN BAY has wrapped up the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoffs and is listed as a 6.5-point underdog on the road at Minnesota, a team it beat handily 23-6 about six weeks ago. This would equate to about a seven-point deduction off the Packers’ typical power rating edge over the Vikings, which leads me to believe that oddsmakers are under the impression that coach Matt LaFleur will rest players, including QB Jordan Love, who also missed last week with a concussion. That said, the Packers are sort of limping into the playoffs and surely would like to see a better performance on Sunday as they get ready for wild-card weekend.
2. BUFFALO is sitting in the No. 7 spot in the AFC and could end up anywhere from No. 5 through No. 7. This leaves coach Sean McDermott with a lot to ponder. The fact that the Bills would normally be about a 17-point favorite over a floundering team like the Jets but are just -7 is almost a surefire sign that oddsmakers know what is coming. I would be surprised to see QB Josh Allen, running back James Cook, or any key veterans on Sunday. I would venture to guess that health is a more important factor than seed for this team to make a playoff run in 2026.
3. There hasn’t been a definitive strategy announced yet on whether or not PHILADELPHIA will be resting its starters with the NFC’s No. 2 and No. 3 seeds still up for grabs. The line (Philly -7) is adjusted seven points, so we assume the Eagles will sit starters for much of the game. There is a belief within the organization that the Eagles can still beat the Commanders on Sunday with whatever lineup takes the field.
4. Many experts believe the LOS ANGELES RAMS are still the best team in football, even though they will be on the road for the wild-card round. Where they will be playing remains to be seen, but at last check, it was a matchup at Philadelphia that was on deck. If you have a short memory, that is where the Rams’ season ended last year in the divisional round. The power rating/line adjustment for Sunday’s game is about six points according to my numbers, so not as drastic as in some other cases. However, the official story out of Rams camp is that coach Sean McVay has said he will play the starters against the Cardinals in Week 18, overriding previous trends to rest key players, to improve team performance after a 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Watch this situation closely.
5. It has already been announced that the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS will at least rest QB Justin Herbert as they get ready for a wild card trip to either Jacksonville or New England. Coach Jim Harbaugh clearly considers the team’s health a bigger factor in potential playoff success than seeding. At the same time, the Broncos might need the win to ensure that the AFC playoffs run through Denver. The only thing that would negate that would be Jacksonville getting upset by Tennessee, an unlikely occurrence considering the Jaguars are 12.5-point favorites.
Stay tuned to the news all week long for the latest on teams further revealing their plans. Good luck with this year’s Week 18 games on Saturday and Sunday. I’ll have some best bet opinions on the full slate later this week.
