Thinking out overtime
If you are contemplating a wager on Sunday’s Bills-Chiefs game, Las Vegas professional bettor Steve Fezzik has some advice for you.
In his regular Friday appearance on A Numbers Game with Gill Alexander, Steve had this to say:
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If you bet Kansas City, you must play the moneyline, not lay the -1.5 or the -2. If you’re betting Buffalo, you have to take the +2. Do not bet the moneyline.
Why?
The reason, Steve explains, is because of the playoff overtime rules, which changed after the 2022 AFC title game between, ironically enough, the aforementioned Bills and Chiefs. KC won the toss and scored to eliminate Buffalo without the Bills ever getting the ball.
Consider this scenario, he says:
Let’s assume Kansas City gets a touchdown — boom they’re up seven. Buffalo now still gets a possession because that’s what the rules are. As sure as the sun’s going to come up tomorrow, when Buffalo scores that touchdown and they’re down one, their analytics team will have figured it out and they’re going to go for two. So this game is going to land on one. It’s basically pretty straightforward math. You can’t kick the extra point because now you go to sudden death and whoever’s got the ball and sudden death has an enormous edge.
More NFL playoff resources
>DraftKings/Circa Betting Splits: At the top of this email, the chart shows a comparison of the betting splits from DraftKings and Circa Sports. Check for movement as we move toward kickoff.
Everything we post on the conference championships is here, including all our Best Bets columns.
Coaching Carousel stops in Vegas and Dallas
The Raiders hired Pete Carroll and the Cowboys made Brian Schottenheimer their head coach late Friday.
Former Raiders play-by-play man Brent Musburger on Carroll: I loved covering him. He’s a player’s coach. They will embrace him. He’ll bring a good staff to Vegas, BUT fans shouldn’t expect too much next season. The division is brutal. 2-4 in AFC West next season after going 0-6 this year is a win for me. Personally, I love the dude!
VSiN’s resident Cowboys fan Dave Ross on Schottenheimer (son of former longtime NFL coach Marty): LOVED Marty in DC. His one year in DC told me everything about the man. Class act. No frills. Leader of men. If Brian is half as good as his old man we’re in great shape.
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Today in College Hoops
Greg Peterson has posted his Best Bets for today’s menu.
Listen now: Greg’s daily podcast handicapping every game on the menu every day.
Quick Hits
NHL: Look for Jonathan Davis‘ picks later today.
NBA: Zach Cohen will post his Best Bets by mid-morning.
Australian Open: Zach has a Best Bet on the men’s final between Alexander Zverev and Jannik Sinner.
Soccer: Nigel Seeley has his plays for the weekend EPL action.
Horse Racing: 1/ST BET handicapper Jeff Siegel and VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon have picks for today’s menu.
This is The VSiN Daily newsletter for Saturday, January 25. Sign up for this free email and get picks and insights delivered to your in-box every morning.
