In the Week 11 Thursday Night Football game, the red-hot New England Patriots host a New York Jets team that has suddenly won two in a row. The Patriots are big favorites to win this one, but the Jets are feisty and this is a division rivalry. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 11 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Jets vs. Patriots
When: Thursday, November 13 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Jets vs. Patriots Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, November 11. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Patriots -850, Jets +575
Spread: Patriots -12.5 (-108), Jets +12.5 (-112)
Total: Over 43.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-115)
Jets vs. Patriots Analysis
The Patriots come into this one on a seven-game winning streak, and they’re 6-1 against the spread over this recent stretch. New England is also top-10 in both EPA per play (0.109) and EPA per play allowed (-0.024), and second-year quarterback Drake Maye enters Week 11 as the betting favorite to win the Most Valuable Player award.
All of the hype surrounding the Patriots makes this a game that should be pretty lopsided in the betting market. New England has already moved from -10.5 to -12.5, and our VSiN betting splits pages do show a good amount of support for the Pats. However, the same pages also show that the total has come down from 46.5 to 43.5, with public money seemingly on the Over. That’s significant because taking a double-digit underdog in a potentially low-scoring game is generally a good move.
The Jets have also been pretty good to bettors this season. For as bad as New York has been, the team is 5-4 ATS on the year. The Jets are also 5-3 ATS as underdogs, and they’re 2-1 ATS as road underdogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 1-3 ATS in home games with totals between 42.5 and 49 points. Also, Mike Vrabel is just 1-2 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points in his head coaching career.
It’s also worthing noting that home teams are 85-49 ATS since 2021 when playing division opponents that are coming off non-conference games. Well, New England just faced Tampa Bay in Week 10.
As far as the on-field stuff goes, I’d expect the Jets to do everything in their power to keep the Patriots receivers in front of them. A bend-don’t-break approach can keep New York in this game. Maye has been hitting some home runs on deep-balls this year, and the Jets are pretty weak at corner. They can’t afford to play this like it’s any other game, and I wouldn’t expect them to either. New York has also been somewhat decent against the run, entering this game with a Rush EPA per play of -0.031. That’s not a great number by any means, but it’s not terrible either. Well, as long as the Jets don’t get absolutely bullied on the ground, this is a game they should be able to keep from getting out of hand.
The offense is where you really need to worry with this game. New York’s best offense was special teams last game, scoring two touchdowns there in the win over Cleveland. This passing game is going to need to be a little better on Thursday, as the Jets are making it too hard on Breece Hall to make plays on the ground. But given the massive spread here, we won’t need anything outrageous from this unit.
Jets vs. Patriots Player Props
LEAN: Breece Hall Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Last week, Hall caught his only target and took it for a 42-yard touchdown. You probably shouldn’t count on a big play like that again here. However, Hall has had at least 30 receiving yards five times this season. And with the Jets being without Garrett Wilson in this one, this team is going to have to be creative about putting the ball in the hands of its top playmaker. I also like that the OptaAI player prop projections have an edge to the Over on Hall’s receiving yards, predicting he goes for 18.20 in this game. I think there’s a decent chance he catches four or five passes.
Jets vs. Patriots Pick
While these are two teams on opposite ends of the spectrum, it’s hard not to like a divisional dog getting this many points — especially with New England coming off a hard-fought win on the road. Look at what Miami has done in two meetings with Buffalo this year. Things are rarely as easy as they seem.
Bet: Jets +13 (-110)
