Jets vs. Patriots – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 receptions (-127, DraftKings)
Normally, the catch prop lines are too high for me to realistically play, but this one is very palatable because this play is about as close to a sure win as there is in this game. I think the Pats will throw a little more than you’d expect them to as massive 13-point favorites, since they’re banged up and thinned at RB, and since they have the firepower in the passing game. The Jets play man coverage at a top-7 clip at 33.7% and head coach Aaron Glenn stuck to it last week, and Diggs is 10th out of 133 WRs to run at least 75 routes with a 3.14 YPRR vs man, and he’s 8th in FP/RR vs man. The Jets also use 2-high safeties at a top-10 clip, and of those 133 WRs to run at least 75 routes, Diggs is 9th with .28 TPRR, ahead of Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase. Diggs is also 22nd (top-15%) in YPRR 2.04. He may not catch 7+ here, but he should get to 5 n this Thursday Night Football matchup.
DeMario Douglas Over 23.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
We’re projecting 39.1, or 66% more, which is a lot. The Jets play man coverage at a top-7 clip at 33.7%, and Douglas is 2nd out of 117 WRs with 100 routes with 4.79 YPPR on 39 routes against man. He also has more TPRR (.26, 40th) vs man than Emeka Egbuka, to name one high-end player. He’s not as good against 2-high safety looks, which they use over 50% of the time, but they play single-high 47% of the time and give up the 4th-most FP/RR vs single high, and Douglas’ 2.84 YPRR vs single high is 10th best out of 162 receivers (TEs included) with 100 routes. His snaps and targets are limited, but the Pats are down two regular contributors in Kayshon Boutte and Austin Hooper, so Douglas’ minimal snap and target numbers should get a bump in this one. Douglas looks great lately, and he’s made at least one big play in four of their last five games with receptions of 26, 58, 44, and 53 yards, so he could easily get this on one catch.
Breece Hall Over 14.5 receiving yards (-120, BETMGM)
I liked the under on his rushing prop when it was 60.5, but it’s been bet down to 52.5, so that’s too low to play. The Patriots give up the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the passing game over the last five weeks (+3.0), and last week Hall got 77.7% of Justin Fields’ passing yards on one 42-yard catch. Hall was behind Isaiah Davis route share last week (31%>19%), but they are 13-point road underdogs against the best run defense in the league, so it would be coaching malpractice (which you can never rule out with the Jets) if they didn’t use Hall more in the passing game, since the Pats are allowing the seventh-most receiving YPG (38.1) to RBs. Frankly, Breece and Davis should both exceed this number.
Mason Taylor Under 14.5 receiving yards on longest reception (-120, DraftKings)
I’m inclined to find unders in the month I’ve dubbed “Novunder,” and this is the best one I see this week with Breece Hall’s rushing prop line bet way down. For one, Taylor’s hit this number in only 3 of 9 games, or 33%, and the Jets have been held to fewer than 55 yards passing in three of their last four. The Pats have given up the 14th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing TEs the last five weeks (+1.2), but most of that was last week and Cade Otton, who put up 9/82 on 12 targets with a long of 16. But there’s a huge difference between Otton catching balls from Baker Mayfield and the rookie Taylor with Justin Fields. It’s not a good schematic matchup for Taylor, since the Pats play man coverage and Cover 2 48% of the time, and he averages a poor .21 FP/RR against those two shells. His .24 expected FP/RR based on the coverages he’ll see is worth a -5% reduction in his FP/RR, and it ranks only 55th out of 77 eligible TEs this week. He’s currently the leading receiver on the Jets, so I’d have to think the Pats make sure he doesn’t beat them for a bigger play. He may end up catching 4-5 balls, but for minimal yardage, as he’s averaging a weaker 8.4 YPR.
Mack Hollins Over 35.5 receiving yards (-125, Fanatics)
For one, we’re projecting 52.8 at Fantasy Points, or 48.8% more, which is a promising discrepancy. The Jets play man coverage at a top-7 clip at 33.7%, and Hollins is averaging a poor 1.00 YPRR and .14 TPRR on 51 routes against man. They also give up the fewest receiving YPG (27.3) and the fewest receptions (7) on targets of 20+ air yards, but I still think Hollins can go over, since this total is very doable. Based on the odds for his catch prop, the books certainly expect him to catch 3 balls, and that could easily be enough, as he often works on backup CB Jarvis Brownlee, who gets targeted as much or more than their other two CBs. The Jets also play 2-high at a top-10 clip, and of 133 WRs to run at least 75 routes, Hollins is 13th in YPRR at 2.36 against 2-high, and he’s 29th in TPRR, so it’s still a positive schematic matchup for him.
Justin Fields Over 39.5 rushing yards (-115, BETMGM)
The Jets are 13-point road favorites, and the main question is how the hell are they going to even move the ball in this Thursday Night Football matchup? It’s a tall order with Garrett Wilson out and with the Patriots having one of the best run defenses in the league. They do give up the 14th-most schedule-adjusted FPG. Fields has not hit this number since Week 3, but he’s been between 22-31 rushing yards in all his games since then, and no Garrett Wilson and a tough Patriots run defense should mean that Fields’ running 10+ times is their only chance. The Pats also play man coverage at the 12th-highest rate, and their .83 FP/DB against man is the seventh-most in the league. Fields has faced off against a Mike Vrabel/Patriots defense only once in his career, back in 2022, and he ran 14 times for 82 yards with a TD and a long of 20. They really haven’t faced many QBs who pose a threat with their legs, but they played the Bills in Week 5, and Josh Allen had his second-highest number of attempts and rushing yards in that game with 9/53 rushing and a long of 19.
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