Most open head coach roles are not attractive for candidates. Coaches are often fired as a result of bad play or become the scapegoat for the organization’s dysfunction. But, all of them tend to have selling points in some way, shape, or form. The Las Vegas Raiders have a lot of them.
Probably the most compelling one is holding the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which is widely expected to be QB Fernando Mendoza. Building around an offense with Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers is rather exciting, too, especially with what looks like a very NFL-ready prospect in Mendoza. The candidates for the role will also be looking into ways to keep Maxx Crosby happy as a building block on the defense.
Las Vegas also isn’t a bad place to live given the weather and new facilities for the team, including the indoor practice facility in Henderson, are likely to be appealing as well. It is rare for there to be so many positives about a job open because of a 3-14 season, but that is the case for anybody who wants to work for Tom Brady and Mark Davis.
DraftKings Sportsbook has odds posted for the next Raiders head coach and here they are as of Tuesday, January 6 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Raiders Next Head Coach Odds
- Brian Flores +150
- John Harbaugh +450
- Klint Kubiak +800
- Kliff Kingsbury +800
- Robert Saleh +1000
- Mike McCarthy +1000
- Chris Shula +1200
- Joe Brady +1400
- Jesse Minter +1400
- Jeff Hafley +1400
- Vance Joseph +1500
- Bill Belichick +1600
- Nate Scheelhaase +1600
- Thomas Brown +1600
- Todd Monken +2000
- Matt Nagy +2000
- Jonathan Gannon +2000
- Mike Kafka +2500
- Dan Pitcher +2500
- Adam Stenavich +3000
- Lou Anarumo +4000
- Arthur Smith +4000
- Steve Spagnuolo +4000
- Philip Rivers +4000
- Patrick Graham +4000
- Jon Gruden +4000
GM John Spytek, who was at Michigan at the same time that Tom Brady was, had an odd fit in his first year with Pete Carroll as the head coach. That never really felt like a good pairing, as Spytek, who was in the Buccaneers front office during Brady’s Tampa tenure, got the job on January 24 and Carroll was hired the next day.
For all intents and purposes, this will be Spytek’s first hire as the GM, in a scenario where Davis and especially Brady will have a lot of input.
Let’s look at the top five candidates per the odds and see if there’s a worthwhile bet in the bunch:
(updated from initial post to include John Harbaugh’s availability and the adjusted odds as a result)
Brian Flores +150
Head coaching hires don’t come out of nowhere more often than not. From 2008-18, Flores was part of the Patriots organization, so Brady obviously knows a lot about him. Connections are important when handicapping these odds and these ones are strong. Maybe not necessarily for Spytek, but for Brady, and his influence is going to weigh heavily here.
Flores filed a class-action lawsuit against the NFL and three teams, including the Giants, who are looking for a head coach right now, back in 2022 alleging racial discrimination. The Giants hired Brian Daboll, another coaching staff member during Brady’s tenure with the Patriots, and Bill Belichick reportedly told Flores that Daboll was hired before Flores was even interviewed as basically a token meeting to fulfill the Rooney Rule.
Flores also sued the Dolphins for allegedly being pressured to tank games by owner Stephen Ross. For a guy who has been a good football coach, his resume absolutely supports another chance and Brady may see himself as the guy to give it to him based on their close relationship.
The rightful favorite here, but you do have to wonder if the Raiders would rather look on the offensive side given the impending selection of Mendoza.
John Harbaugh +450
While Harbaugh is a very flashy name with a strong pedigree and it sure would be interesting to see the Harbauwl between John and Jim twice a year, I really don’t believe that the Raiders will look in this direction. Obviously Brady, Davis, Spytek, and others will consider all of the accomplishments and accolades, but I don’t think that a 63-year-old coach is the direction that this team wants to go after the Pete Carroll experiment went down in flames. Harbaugh and Carroll are not an apples-to-apples comparison, but the Raiders should want to get younger and more innovative. Certainly Harbaugh (and Monken?) with so much invested in Jeanty has its upside, but I’m not sure this is the right fit.
Klint Kubiak +800
Kubiak could be that offensive-minded guy that the Raiders are looking for. Kubiak is on his second team as an offensive coordinator before the age of 40 and it may be appealing to Davis & Co. to go with a younger hire given that the rest of the AFC West has Andy Reid, Sean Payton, and Jim Harbaugh. The Kubiaks are a football family and it’s a name that carries some weight.
Spytek interacted with father Gary during his time with the Broncos and surely knew Klint, who was hired by the Broncos in 2016, just as Spytek left for his Buccaneers role. It probably doesn’t hurt that Klint also served a year under Kyle Shanahan. It is hard not to be impressed with what Kubiak has done this season with Sam Darnold and that looms large with Mendoza coming in.
I don’t mind a wager here. What Kubiak has accomplished in a brutal NFC West Division may also resonate for a team in the AFC West.
Kliff Kingsbury +800
As it turns out, Kingsbury is available, having mutually parted ways with Dan Quinn and the Commanders on Jan. 6. Kingsbury and Brady crossed paths on the 2003 Patriots, so there’s a little bit of a connection there. Kingsbury also had previous meetings with Davis, as he was looking to be the Raiders’ OC in 2024 before the two sides seemingly reached an impasse.
All of the rage with hiring Sean McVay disciples has died down a little bit, but Kingsbury with these offensive pieces could certainly be fun. I just don’t see it happening with the other candidates available that seem lower-variance than Kliff.
Robert Saleh +1000
Is this the right spot for Saleh to get his second kick at the can. His tenure with the Jets didn’t go according to plan, as he was fired five games into the 2024 season with a 20-36 record. Outside of that blip, he’s been a tremendous defensive coordinator over two stints with the 49ers and has a pretty strong coaching tree in his background with Gary Kubiak, Carroll, and Shanahan.
This is the type of candidate that gets interesting for me because Brady thrived with a defensive-minded head coach in Belichick. McDaniels ran the offense and you can find a smart, young, sharp play-caller to pair with a veteran defensive mind. That’s probably the thinking with Flores and why he’s such a short shot on the board. Flores’ success as a head coach does, theoretically, make him a more attractive candidate than Saleh, but I do think he’s on the list.
Given the other candidates and connections, I’m not sure +1000 is a good enough price, but it wouldn’t be a surprising hire.
Mike McCarthy +1000
McCarthy may get a token look from the Raiders, but it would be a surprise to see them look to go this route. McCarthy would hardly be a bad guy for Mendoza to learn from. After all, Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott have done pretty well on his watch. But, Davis opted to go the veteran head coach route to try and get an adult in the room with Pete Carroll after a tumultuous couple of seasons. He also tried to do that with Jon Gruden a few years back and that also backfired.
That’s not to say that McCarthy is the same as those guys, but the 62-year-old probably isn’t the right guy for this young roster and the state of football in 2026 and beyond. He’s something of a viable candidate on this list, but not at 10/1.
Potential Long Shots for Raiders Next Head Coach
Thomas Brown +1600
Brown is a really intriguing candidate for some of the open jobs. He had outstanding success as a running backs coach in college with guys like Melvin Gordon and Nick Chubb. He’s coached multiple position groups, including tight ends, and serves as the Patriots passing game coordinator. In other words, he checks the Jeanty, Bowers, and Mendoza boxes with extensive experience in all three areas.
Brown also has the right connections to be on Brady’s radar. He played for Eric Mangini as the Browns head coach and Mangini was part of the Patriots staff from 2000-05. He’s also worked with McVay, Frank Reich, and now Mike Vrabel, whose opinion is likely to be coveted by Brady.
I think at 16/1, he should at least get an interview for the job and may impress if given that chance.
Ultimately, I think one of Flores, Kubiak, Saleh gets the job, but Brown is the one long shot I’d think about.
