Late Line Movement NFL Week 11 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

Thursday Night Football started out as a snoozefest but turned interesting late with a flurry of late scores to make Under bettors (like myself) sweat a little bit in what was otherwise a pretty uneventful game. I gave out Under 49.5 on X last night a few hours before the game, so I was happy to see that cash for everyone who tailed. I feel good about our early week NFL bets, and we are riding a nice wave of winners right now. Let’s keep the good vibes rolling into the weekend with some additional NFL Week 11 best bets.

 

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Cleveland Browns (-1; 44.5) at New Orleans Saints 

Depending on where you look as of Friday morning, you can probably get +1 on either team right now, but I’m more interested in the total at current numbers. This O/U opened at 44 offshore and was quickly nudged down to 43.5, which has been my indicator of whether I’m going to pursue a bet (in conjunction with TSI, of course) because that strategy has been absolutely crushing it in all sports the last couple weeks. So, the fact this line is back up above 44 is all the better because I know my number and the initial sharp moves like the Under. All of my formulas are unanimous in being Under the current 44.5, with my official projection at 43.5. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of TSI offensive ratings, while at least Cleveland is in the top half of the league in defensive rating. These offenses are averaging just 17 points per game over their last five games, so I think a 17-14, 20-17 type game is on the table here. More power to you if you want to back Derek Carr and Jameis Winston to take a total Over.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Under 44.5 (Play to 44) 

Atlanta Falcons (+2; 44) vs. Denver Broncos 

TSI projects Denver -1 here, but as much as the number is advantageous, I love the spot here for Atlanta coming off a bad loss to New Orleans with an interim coach, and Denver is going to be battered and bruised after taking Kansas City down to the wire. The early sharp move agrees, actually betting the offshore opener of Denver -1.5 down to -1 before the rest of the market jumped on the Broncos. The fact this number has mostly teetered on 2-2.5 most of the week indicates books are much more comfortable taking Broncos money under a field goal than they are Falcons money at the full field goal. I don’t think we’ll see a +3, so I’m fine taking +2 (you can probably snag a +2.5 if you look hard enough), but I think this is likely a Falcons bounceback win, so I’m riding with Kirk Cousins plus the points.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +2 (Play to +1.5)

For more NFL Week 11 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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