Late Line Movement NFL Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

Monitoring line movement is crucial to betting in any sport or market. Understanding where the line has been and where it’s potentially going are key factors in determining what to bet and when to bet. If I like Team A +2.5 when openers get released, but I see that line going to +3 or higher at sharper books, why would I take the 2.5 when it appears there’s a good chance I’m going to get more value on this number later in the week? 

Conversely, if that same market starts to move to +2 or lower, I know I should probably fire on that bet immediately — understanding in both circumstances that my projected number is the baseline for all of my bets. 

 

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In the NFL, you will see less drastic moves than college from a quantitative standpoint, but the impact is equally as great because of the parity in the NFL that results in tighter lines (i.e. you don’t see The Ravens favored by 43.5 over the Panthers like you see in college). This means that a -4 move to a -2.5 move *seems* small because it’s only a point and a half, but the edge gained (assuming you like the favorite) is 19.67%. 

I will write up these big movers that create value on the T Shoe Index projected line each week on Fridays (Thursdays for College Football), and so far, they’re 2-0 ATS this season after cashing Colts +3 and Browns/Cowboys Over 41 last week. 

Here are the Week 2 line moves that I like:

Philadelphia Eagles vs Atlanta Falcons (+6.5), O/U 47

We spent the entire offseason talking about the Falcons as NFC South favorites and a potentially dangerous playoff team. Apparently one awful performance in Week 1 has most people throwing that evaluation out the window. I’m not ready to jump ship just yet, despite Kirk Cousins looking like a 30-something year old guy coming off an achilles tear. 

Back in May, the Falcons were just +3.5 on lookahead lines, and even as of Sunday evening they were just +4.5. Now, they’re out to +6.5, which is an additional edge of 10.36% just for remembering how we felt about this team a week ago. 

TSI projects Eagles -3.5, so I’d technically have leaned Atlanta on Sunday, but now I think it’s a very good opportunity to get some market overreaction value in our favor after Philadelphia survived a shootout with the Green Bay Packers in Brazil last Friday night. 

Bet: Falcons +6.5 or better

Green Bay Packers vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3), O/U 40

I know this game had substantial line movement due to Jordan Love injury news so it’s not exactly the same criteria that we’re normally looking for; however, I think this total is out of control. 

On September 3rd, this total was 47.5. The Packers then proceeded to get into a game that totaled 63 points with the Eagles. Yes, Jordan Love is a significantly better player than Malik Willis, who will be starting this week, but I have a hard time adjusting a total over a touchdown for one non-Tom-Brady-esque player. TSI has an adjusted projection of 49 points in this game, accounting for the Love injury. 

The Colts’ game with the Texans tallied 56 points, so I think both teams can and will contribute plenty to this total. I also confirmed there is no expected weather impact on this game, which would’ve been the only thing that could’ve scared me off this bet after seeing it move through several key numbers.

Bet: Packers/Colts Over 40 (Play to 41)

For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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