Late Line Movement NFL Week 6 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

If you missed my Tuesday article, go back and check that out to get the NFL bets I made early in the week. Those numbers are still playable at most books right now, so I’d encourage you to go back and read that and lock those bets in if you’re so inclined. This Friday piece every week is designed to re-examine the market after numbers have been kicked around and dust has settled a bit to see where lines may have moved too much, or perhaps are still sitting around opening numbers and giving us a second crack at the softer lines now that we’ve had some time to analyze these matchups throughout the week. There are a couple that I really like this week that both the TSI projections and some NFL data trends support. Here’s what I’ve added to the card for Week 6:

 

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Detroit Lions (-3; 52)

On one hand, I can’t believe this total hasn’t dropped below the key number of 51 yet; on the other hand, everyone loves to bet Overs, so that sentiment has kept this total playable for me all week. TSI projects 49 points (another key number) in this game, and this is quantitatively the best play on my board right now. I posted on X (@TShoeIndex) earlier this week that NFL totals 49 or above have gone Under in seven out of eight games so far this year, with totals in the 50s going 4-0 to the Under. Yes, both offenses are very good and rank in the top 10 of OTSI (TSI offensive ratings); however, the efficiency and volume of possessions needed to go Over a total in the 50s is just not likely. In fact, of the four games this season where the O/U was 50+, those games went Under by a margin of 13 points per game!

NFL Week 6 Pick: Under 52 (Play to 51)

Carolina Panthers (+6; 47) vs. Atlanta Falcons 

You probably thought I was going to play another Panthers Over here, didn’t you? Those have been printing money since Andy Dalton took over, but I’ve actually got my attention on the spread in this game. TSI projects Atlanta -5 in this game, creating a smidge of value on the number for Carolina (on a secondary key number, at that), but it’s hard to ignore the fact that underdogs of 6 or more this season have gone 15-3 ATS, and home dogs of 6+ have gone 2-0 ATS. Again, I’d never blindly back a trend (or anything, for that matter), but when a trend is that strong and TSI aligns, I’m firing. Not to mention the fact that this is a divisional game, and divisional games tend to favor Unders and underdogs, historically. 

NFL Week 6 Pick: Panthers +6, -110) (Play to +6, -119)

For more NFL Week 6 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 6 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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