Late Line Movement NFL Week 8 Picks and Predictions from the T Shoe Index:

Before I get into this week’s late plays, I want to offer my condolences for anyone (like myself) who had under 48 or 48.5 in the Vikings/Rams Thursday night game, as the score looked to be settled at 28-20 before a last-minute safety by the Vikings pushed the total Over the number. Horrific beat. Anyway, we’ve seen some pretty notable line moves throughout this week, both on sides and totals. It’s hard at this point in the season to differentiate which line moves are injury-related and which are not. I’m doing my best to sift through what information is out there; let’s see where TSI indicates lines may have overadjusted this week for some NFL Week 8 best bets.

 

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Chicago Bears (-3; 43) vs. Washington Commanders 

I know we’re not expecting Jayden Daniels to play for Washington this week, but Marcus Mariota filled in admirably in his absence last week. According to PFF, Mariota finished the game 18-of-23 for 205 yards, two passing touchdowns and no interceptions. “He recorded two big-time throws and no turnover-worthy plays, leading the offense to an impressive 0.448 EPA per pass play, the second-best single-game mark of Washington’s season so far.” At most books, this total was in the upper 40s before Daniels’ injury, so getting this at 43 feels like a discount on the Over for two teams not afraid to get into a shootout. TSI projects the total at 45, and my eyeballs concur that this should be a high-scoring affair.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Over 43 (Play to 44)

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos (-10; 41.5)

It’s not often that I’m interested in betting a line, particularly an NFL side, that’s moved 3 points in my direction; however, the combination of the Panthers looking like they have no interest in playing football and Andy Dalton being out of practice so far this week after a car wreck leaves me no choice but to fade them when TSI indicates it’s acceptable to do so, line movement be damned. It’s also rare that TSI would project an NFL game to be a two-touchdown spread, but the projection sits at Denver -12, as the Broncos have turned on the offense lately and the aforementioned Panthers’ struggles compound the projected gap. This is a really simple handicap; the number likes it, and these are two teams trending in polar opposite directions, so I’m not afraid to lay a big number with Denver.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Denver Broncos -10 (Play to -12)

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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