The Week 6 Sunday Night Football matchup features the Kansas City Chiefs hoping to get back on track when they host the Detroit Lions at Arrowhead Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 6 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Lions vs. Chiefs
When: Sunday, October 12 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri
Channel: NBC
Lions vs. Chiefs Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, October 10. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Chiefs -130, Lions +110
Spread: Chiefs -2.5 (-105), Lions +2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 52.5 (-112), Under 52.5 (-108)
Lions vs. Chiefs Analysis
Playing a good opponent on short rest will be a challenge for Kansas City, but the team is 52-26 straight-up under Andy Reid in games with moneylines between +130 and -150. The Chiefs have won those games by an average of 5.1 points per game. Kansas City is also 8-0 SU in home games when facing teams that commit 0.75 or fewer turnovers per game in that span, winning those ones by an average of 10.8 points per game. I’ll also add that the Chiefs are 74-31 SU when facing opponents that average at least 5.65 yards per play with Reid on the sidelines. We have seen it time and time again: Kansas City, thanks to Patrick Mahomes and a good defense, levels up when playing big games.
Why all the straight-up trends? Why not ATS numbers? Well, if you’re backing the Chiefs here, paying up a little for the moneyline could be worth it. At -130, you’re better off not having to sweat out a spread. This could be a game that comes down to a field goal, so you won’t want to push on -3. Also, even at -2.5, Harrison Butker having two missed extra points is a little unsettling. One slip up there could cost you.
And, outside of betting trends, why Kansas City? For me, that actually started with a look at the VSiN betting splits. Detroit felt like the public side before even seeing any proof of that, as the Lions are 4-1 with three double-digit wins. They also come into this one on a four-game winning streak, and the Chiefs are 2-3 after a tough national television loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. The splits only backed that all up. Nearly 80% of the tickets at DraftKings Sportsbook are on Detroit, yet the Lions have gone from +1.5 on the lookahead lines on September 30 to +2.5 now. Nothing we have seen in the last couple of weeks suggests Kanas City should be a bigger favorite, especially on a short week. But the sharps are buying the Chiefs.
As far as the on-field stuff goes, the advanced stats profiles of these teams have actually been pretty similar since Week 3. Both of these teams are in Tier 2 in Net EPA per play at RBSDM since then, and it’s the Chiefs that have looked the part against better competition. The Lions might have some blowout wins, but those came against the Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns, and Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals. Do we really want to read too much into any of those performances?
I also just like Steve Spagnuolo’s defense to do some good things against a Lions team that no longer has Ben Johnson calling the shots. Things have looked pretty good for Detroit on offense without the high-profile play caller, but these are the types of games in which he could be missed. Johnson called a pretty good game when the Lions won in Arrowhead two years ago, and Jared Goff — and the Detroit running game — might not be as effective without him. The offensive line is also a little less proven than we’ve seen in recent years, so the big, talented Chiefs defensive front could do some damage there.
This Kansas City offense is also more explosive than the one that lost to Detroit a few years ago. The running game hasn’t been great this season, but Mahomes’ group of receivers is a little more athletic. And there should be opportunities for him to take advantage of the speed he has at his disposal. Even if he can’t, if this is a tight game in the final minutes, I trust him to make the plays required to win this one. It helps that the Lions secondary is completely banged up. Mahomes going against backup corners will be like Billy Madison playing dodgeball in kindergarten.
This also is a revenge spot. Kansas City isn’t going to want to allow Detroit to win two games in a row in Arrowhead. This is also something of a must-win spot for the Chiefs. With the way the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers are playing, Kansas City can’t fall to 2-4 — and can’t waste a home game.
Lions vs. Chiefs Player Props
Lean: Kareem Hunt Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-108)
At some point, Kansas City might want to invest in a running back upgrade. However, until then, Hunt is going to have opportunities to make plays. He’s averaging 8.6 carries per game this season, and he has had at least 10 carries in two of the last three games. Hunt also had two rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville last week, which could give him a leg up on Isiah Pacheco in Week 6. But even if he doesn’t see a heavier majority of the carries, 8-10 could be enough for him to go Over this mark. Realistically, rushing for 4.0 yards per carry in this game would probably mean going Over, and our OptaAI player prop projections like him to do that. They have Hunt rushing for 39.57 yards in this game, which is an edge of 10.07 to the Over.
Lions vs. Chiefs Pick
Would it be nice if Kansas City wasn’t coming off a Monday game? Of course. But the Chiefs have been really good since their 0-2 start to the season, and they don’t lose these types of games very often. I’ll put some trust in Spagnuolo to put together a good game plan for the Lions offense, giving Mahomes a chance to win this against a depleted secondary.
Bet: Chiefs ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
