On Sunday, November 16, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Detroit Lions in a Week 11 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Lions vs. Eagles betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 11 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Lions vs. Eagles
When: Sunday, November 16 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Channel: NBC
Lions vs. Eagles Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, November 14. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Eagles -148, Lions +124
Spread: Eagles -2.5 (-118), Lions +2.5 (-102)
Total: Over 46.5 (-118), Under 46.5 (-102)
Lions vs. Eagles Analysis
The Lions are coming off a 20-point win over the Commanders last week. Detroit has won six of its last eight games, and the betting public seems to like the Lions to keep it up. Our VSiN betting splits show that Detroit has received a majority of the bets in this game. However, the Lions did open at +1.5 when this first became available. They’re up to +2.5 now. That suggests the Eagles might be the sharp side. And despite the fact that Philadelphia’s offense looked miserable in last week’s 10-7 win over Green Bay, I have been leaning Eagles all week.
For as shaky as the Eagles offense looked last week, the defense played a heck of a game against the Packers. Philly held Josh Jacobs to only 74 yards on 21 carries. The Eagles are now in the top-10 in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.101), and very little separates them from being as high as fourth in the rankings. With that in mind, I don’t think it’s crazy to think that Philadelphia will be able to slow down Detroit’s dynamic rushing attacking. And if the Eagles can do that, stopping Jared Goff and this Lions passing game becomes that much easier. After all, this is an outdoor game.
It’s also worth noting that Detroit’s play-calling situation is a mess. The Lions players seemingly didn’t like John Morton’s calls, so Dan Campbell had to take over the play sheet. Well, Campbell might be able to do a decent job with the unit, but I’d like to see it against a good defense. Shredding Washington doesn’t impress me, and this strikes me as a bigger deal than people are making it out to be. The Lions had the best play-caller in football running the show for years. All of a sudden, there’s a revolving door on the sidelines. Plus, if there’s any team in which you don’t want uncertainty against, it’s this one. There are better defenses than the Eagles, but Vic Fangio is experienced and aggressive. If there’s anything to exploit, he’ll find a way.
As far as the Philly offense goes, I’m not going to overreact to last week. The Packers might be a mess offensively, but they’ve been tough defensively for most of the year. Sure, it would have been nice to see the Eagles light them up after a week off. But the full season-long body of work still says that this is one of the better offenses in the league. Philadelphia was eighth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.096) heading into that game, and this team still has all of the talent back from last year’s sixth-ranked offense. The Lions are also a little beaten up in the secondary, which isn’t what you want against one of the best pass-catching groups in the NFL.
Philly is also an impressive 8-0 as a home favorite of 3 or less under Nick Sirianni. The Eagles have also won those games by an average of 11.0 points per game. Sirianni also happens to be 10-0 straight-up against NFC North opponents in his career, and he has won those games by an average of 10.2 points per game.
Lions vs. Eagles Player Props
DeVonta Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Smith is coming off a 69-yard game against the Packers last week. He’s now averaging 99.8 receiving yards per game over the last five games, and he has gone Over the number for this game in four of the last five. The Lions have done a pretty good job of limiting big performances over the last month or so, but they also haven’t faced many teams with a combination of a good quarterback and good wide receivers. Well, they’ll be doing so this week.
Our WR-CB Matchup Tool also happens to love Smith going up against Rock Ya-Sin, giving him a top-10 matchup in Week 11. The OptaAI projections also have Smith going for 74.55 receiving yards, meaning a big edge to the Over.
Lions vs. Eagles Pick
I’m playing the Eagles and the Smith prop here. I still view Philly as one of the best teams in the NFC, and this isn’t the type of game this team loses under Sirianni. The Eagles have been as reliable as they come as small favorites with him on the sidelines, and Smith should be a big part of the game plan on offense.
Bet: Eagles -2.5 (-115 – 1.5 units) & Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
