The Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup features the Detroit Lions taking on the Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Lions vs. Panthers
When: Sunday, October 4 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina
Channel: NBC
Lions vs. Panthers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Saturday, October 3. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Lions -192, Panthers +160
Spread: Lions -3.5 (-115), Panthers +3.5 (-105)
Total: Over 51.5 (-102), Under 51.5 (-118)
Lions vs. Panthers Analysis
Our Circa Sports betting splits don’t show anything too definitive for this game. About a week ago, Circa had the Lions at -3. Detroit is now up to -3.5, but the percentages aren’t showing anything that stands out. However, I have mentioned in the past that I’m not solely relying on splits. I came into this one liking the Panthers side, and I’m not sure anything was going to change that.
Detroit is currently No. 7 in the NFL in looking at EPA/Play (0.141), but the team is 31st in EPA/Play Allowed (0.183). The latter really concerns me in this matchup. Bryce Young is currently No. 9 in the NFL with a Pro Football Focus grade of 81.5. He’s playing the best football of his career, and I expect him to do a good job of efficiently attacking this Lions defense. Also, while Carolina got torched by Chicago in Week 1, the team is up to No. 12 in EPA/Play Allowed (-0.035). The Panthers secondary has also been a major strength, so I think this team can have some success by throwing everything at Jahmyr Gibbs. If Carolina can slow him down, it’ll be up to Jared Goff to consistently make big throws. Can he do that? It’ll help the Lions that the Panthers will be without Jaycee Horn, but Ejiro Evero should be able to mix up the coverages and find ways to make Goff uncomfortable.
It’s also just hard not to feel like the Lions have played some shaky football, even in wins this year. They pounced to an early lead over New Orleans in Week 1, but that was a game the team easily could have lost after a furious rally from the Saints. The Lions were then miserable in a 10-point loss to the Bills in Week 2, and the Jets had their chances to win against them in Week 3. The theme has been a shaky defense, but the eye test also says that the offense is nowhere near as creative or unpredictable as it was under Ben Johnson several years ago.
Dave Canales also happens to be 10-6 against the spread as a home underdog as the coach of the Panthers. Carolina is also 8-4 ATS off a road loss under Canales, and the team is 3-0 both straight-up and ATS off a loss in which the group was favored. That tells me Canales is good at coaching up mistakes made in the previous week.
Lions vs. Panthers Player Props
Darren Waller Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113) & Score TD (+285 – 0.5 units)
The OptaAI player prop projections have Waller finishing with 32.42 receiving yards in this game. That’s a slight edge to the Over, but I think there’s a good chance he far exceeds it. Waller just had five receptions for 51 yards against the Browns, and he was targeted eight times in that game. Waller now faces a Lions defense that is allowing 117.0 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Detroit has also allowed six touchdowns to tight ends already. This is a prime matchup for a big weapon in the passing game, and Waller should also benefit from some absences at wideout.
Lions vs. Panthers Pick
I see several shops with +4 available for Carolina here. That’s a play for me. The Lions surely have more firepower on offense, but the Panthers can also score. Carolina also looks like the better defensive team right now, and this is a game being played in front of a packed Panthers crowd. I expect this to be a one-score game in which Carolina will have some chances to win. I’m also going after some of these Waller props.
Bet: Panthers +4 (-110) & Waller Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113) & Waller Anytime TD (+285 – 0.5 units)
