Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, October 4 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Twilight Delight (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Twilight Delight
2. Guy Smiley
3. Ortley Avenue
Thought TWILIGHT DELIGHT was a pretty good 2yo turf sprinter last year, and expected more from him than he gave in his first two races at age 3. Did catch “good” turf both races, and wonder if he was spinning his wheels a bit. Back on firmer ground last out at Ellis – that’s more like what I expected to see. Followed that solid win with a recent KEE workout video that really caught my eye. Think he’s a horse on the upswing – but can’t win this one on the lead. GUY SMILEY showed speed, too, capturing a KD N1X – perhaps a field about par for the class level – returning from a 16-month layoff. This one – I don’t think Guy’s necessarily a speed horse. Expect him to rate a couple lengths off the pace here – and he can win like that. ORTLEY AVENUE has all those “1s” in his running lines and a fig from Saratoga – all leading to him being an underlay. He’s speed, and there’s too much speed here.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other nine races on Sunday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Just Asap
2. Good Mojo
3. Capital Connection
Despite trouble at the start that forced him much farther off the pace than he needs to be, JUST ASAP came roaring home – the only horse closing – to finish a close third of 11, beating five horses he races in this race while racing at the same class level. Compromising trouble two back, his first race after being claimed for a mere $16K tag – ran there on a steep drop, and there are signs owner-trainer S Asmussen caught previous connections taking an edge with a decent horse. Listed 6-1 would be plenty fair, but wonder if he goes lower. GOOD MOJO twice races for $30k tags that got him eligible for this N3L starter – and twice ran into winners who performed well above par for the class level. Claimed Sept. 11 when he ran into a winner who went wild in the slop – this horse, if nothing else, showed he’s holding solid form, form that fits this race. CAPITAL CONNECTION has contending form, for sure, but consistently loses ground from stretch all to wire and stands a decent chance of regressing after some higher-end performances toward the end of a long year.
Second Race
1. Get Them Roses
2. Maginnesontap
3. El Ramundo
GET THEM ROSES purchased at an August auction for $50K, runs back for that same price, his first start outside MSW competition. I’d rate him a major contender even without having seen the 9/25 work inside High Camp, which looked quite good for a horse at this level. MAGINNESONTAP a grinding sort, has some modest route speed, third in his lone dirt start, which was a KEE MSW in April; faced just six other horses, set solid pace, had no resistance when challenged. Wouldn’t want him as the favorite but clearly has a path to victory. At a price, consider EL RAMUNDO, whom I liked a bit in his Sept 11 return from a freshening. Did not disappoint there, either, and has a chance to come forward enough to make the top 3 at long odds.
Third Race
1. Way Beyond
2. City of Life
3. Kokomo Joe
Could WAY BEYOND be as high as the listed 8-1? Shouldn’t be. His entire body of work before the layoff after the 1/26 race reveals a horse who should be competitive, dropping to this 3yo $62.5K claiming class. And upon his return, he faced a group of hardened older first-level allowance horses – much stronger competition than this. Slow start put him farther back than he needs to be. Worked back four times and fairly high confidence he improves. Not enamored of the horses this time of year who have battled it out all summer and into the fall. That’s not CITY OF LIFE. Last ran Aug. 1 and belatedly cleared the maiden ranks, for $50K at Ellis. Ran well over this course in the spring. Fast enough – and fresh. Good chance to outrun the 12-1 morning line. KOKOMO JOE another who has been held back and prepped for the fall KEE meet. Has won one of four – his lone race over the KEE surface. Bad start took him out of position in most recent race.
Fourth Race
1. Grantchester
2. Damavand
3. Belzoni
Was enamored enough of work video from GRANTCHESTER that I picked him to win his debut at Kentucky Downs – that despite the fact he’d breezed on dirt and debuted on turf. Good run over the stiff 7f at KD! Bred more like a dirt horse and think he is a dirt horse who got in a useful turf prep for the KEE meet. DAMAVAND tipped off the fence mid-turn, came outside, pushed wide into stretch, kind of spun his wheels but eventually got untracked and appeared to finish with decent energy – hard to say, because the frame of the homestretch camera shot’s too tight to see the back half of the field, and the gallop-out video zooms in on the winner. Sigh. In any case … looks to me like a pretty strong second-start stretchout candidate. Could be closer to favored than 5-1, however. Sure, U.S.S. Valor, who was to run Saturday in the G1 Champagne, looks a very nice horse, but BELZONI did lose to him by 18 (that’s eighteen) lengths last out. Beaten on debut by Grand Yaupon, who did win a recent Remington Stakes, but who is a fairly limited talent.
Sixth Race
1. Billal
2. Timing Difference
3. Flying Liam
5yo BILLAL cleared his N2X allowance condition in September 2024 – as in, two years ago. He’s 8-0-1-1 since, so, yes, it’s time for a class drop – but the $50K says they still value the horse to some extent. Rightfully so. When Flying Liam beat him in January, it looked like a case of experimentation, seeing if Billal could race more effectively from closer to the pace. He couldn’t. Tailed off in April. Poor start in Aug. 26 comeback really did him in – steadied back and it took quite some time for him to get into a rhythm. Quietly made some decent steady homestretch progress – a race that ought to have him set to win here on the drop. TIMING DIFFERENCE I feel less certain about running back to his most recent race, which would contend. No match there for Classic Car Wash, but that horse, on form, even now, is a solid cut above these. He kinda sorta races like he wants to make one sustained run into things – but then doesn’t really sustain it. Hard to say – other than this is a tough race to parse. FLYING LIAM fell apart in April and May, which presumably led to the turf foray when he came back from a break in August. Those grass races weren’t bad at all – to the extent one wonders if this return to dirt really helps the horse.
Seventh Race
1. Overtime Rules
2. Amor Patriae
3. Tre Italiani
Those were not plow horses in that Sept. 7 Colonial maiden, but neither was it an especially strong bunch, even by CNL MSW standards, yet OVERTIME RULES’s easy front-running win there still caught the eye. He basically was never asked while traveling like a horse who definitely had another level to find. Just a third-time starter, second time on dirt, and there might be vast untapped upside, though presence of Prat costs one a few odds points. Seemed obvious when I saw him entered that AMOR PATRIAE was using that route comeback run as a practice run before he was cut back to the sprint distance he wants. Really don’t care that he wasn’t competitive – that really wasn’t the point of the endeavor. The question is how real those three big races he ran in May, June, and August 2025 were – and whether he still can get back to that form. He’s 20-1 on the line in a crapshoot of a race – might be worth winging it here. TRE ITALIANI finished best among three coming out of R6 on 8/21 at Ellis – and he was best of that bunch. DQ’d from win at this level during the April KEE meet. Looks like an obvious contender yet priced at 6-1 on the line.
Eighth Race
1. Ruiva
2. Wood Island
3. Crack On
Believe me, when you do KY analysis, KEE in the spring, you watch a lot of workout video from Wesley Ward-trained 2yos. RUIVA caught the eye right away this spring. If memory serves, she was scratched a couple times from KEE maiden races – more than ready when she debuted at surprisingly high 2-1 4/29 at CD. Ward thinks she’s better on dirt, that he undertrained her for the SoCal race last time, and that Ruiva went too fast in the early stages after being asked from the gate. All plausible. But her turf race at Royal Ascot was really, really good. Queen Mary is the big 2yo filly race – she was an excellent third of 27, just behind Senorita Bonita, who went on to capture the G1 Prix Morny in France. To me, very encouraging recent turf work video, and I think she can sit a couple lengths off what might be a very fast pace. Hard to see how WOOD ISLAND isn’t part of that pace given his electric gate speed. As fast as he is into stride, he does come back to his rider, and last out, in his turf debut, he showed a little upper-stretch burst. Also raced greenly in the homestretch, leaping over tracks a few times. Looks like a real talent. Worry about the pace setup for him, though. If even a majority of the speed shows, some late-runner like CRACK ON will clunk into the frame, and to be fair, she’s not a bad horse at all.
Ninth Race
1. Fully Subscribed
2. Immersive
3. Snowyte
If you gave me a wager on the Breeders’ Cup Distaff before this weekend’s racing, I’d bet FULLY SUBSCRIBED. She’d “shown signs” throughout her career, took a step forward in the Shuvee, and my read is her Personal Ensign was for real. She doesn’t need to run nearly that fast to beat this bunch, either, albeit at a very low price. IMMERSIVE chased loose-on-lead Splendora last out – Splendora is excellent in a vacuum, and there’s no way Immersive was getting close to her when Splendora dictated tempo in the Locust Grove. I suppose Immersive’s little form uptick earlier this year might be all gone now, but I look for at least a minor bounce-back race. And with Regaled to scratch, a horse needs only beat two rivals to finish second. SNOWYTE no match for Fully Subscribed at SAR and probably not here, either, but she could dictate tempo and stick around. COUNTING STARS will be second choice, but after rising to the top of her division with excellent wins in the Acorn and CCA Oaks, she looked very much over the top last out in the Alabama, and I’m not forecasting a bounce-back performance here.
Tenth Race
1. Real Goodbar
2. Bold Leadership
3. Agate
Wiiiide open renewal of the Bourbon. The list of who can’t win seems far shorter than who can. Was impressed with REAL GOODBAR’s debut win over Colonial turf. Urged out of gate to take some position from a wide draw, but came right back to rider, sat comfortably, responded immediately when asked, and produced what looked like a legit strong finish. Not bad at all trying dirt in the Iroquois, and top to bottom, that graded dirt race probably featured more raw talent than this turf contest. From close range at what should be acceptable win odds. BOLD LEADERSHIP has made some mistakes of his own in his first two starts, but also was very unlikely in both defeats. Now the SAR 2yo turf division, both male and female, has so far looked sub-par, but I like this horse, and think he can win if he puts it all together. AGATE bobbled and stumbled over the Kentucky Downs course yet still finished with plenty of run for third behind the buzzsaw named How’s Al Today in rich KD stake. He’s got Ellis turf route form (I quite liked the look of his maiden win) validating the KD showing – but has he already improved as far as he can go this year?
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