The Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season features the Houston Texans hosting the Detroit Lions at NRG Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 10 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Lions vs. Texans

When: Sunday, November 10th at 8:20 pm ET

Where: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas

Channel: NBC/Peacock

Lions vs. Texans Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Thursday, November 7th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Lions -192, Texans +160

Spread: Lions -3.5 (-112), Texans +3.5 (-108)

Total: Over 48.5 (-112), Under 48.5 (-108)

Lions vs. Texans Analysis

The Texans have struggled offensively this season. They’re just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.018). Oddly enough, they’re 28th in Rush EPA per play (-0.139). So, while it might seem like Joe Mixon is having a good season, Houston isn’t running as well as it should be. And C.J. Stroud has also had a nightmarish sophomore season. He’s just 25th in nfelo’s Value vs. Average Starter rankings, and he’s also 28th in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-0.7%). Of course, getting some bodies back at wide receiver would help everybody. Defenses wouldn’t be able to overplay the run if there were some receivers creating consistent separation, and Stroud’s numbers would be a heck of a lot better if he had people to throw to. But Stefon Diggs is out for the season for Houston, and Nico Collins’ hamstring injury has him as a “long shot” to play this week, according to ESPN’s Field Yates.

When you add all of that to the fact that the Texans have PFF’s 24th-ranked offensive line, it’s a little hard to imagine this Houston offense getting going against Detroit — even with the team having had extra time to prepare after playing last Thursday. The Lions are fifth in the league in EPA per play allowed (-0.086) and have been good against both the run and the pass. Detroit has also looked great over the last two weeks, which is significant because Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending injury hasn’t been as dooming as people thought it’d be. Plus, the Lions have help on the way in the form of Za’Darius Smith, who was a very effective pass rusher as recently as last season.

What do you do with that information? If you like the Lions offense to rip through a good Texans defense, laying the points isn’t a bad idea. Detroit is fourth in the league in EPA per play (0.124) and first in scoring (32.3 PPG), so that’s completely understandable. However, the Lions get a lot from a league-best running game in Rush EPA per play (0.059) and the Texans have a good rushing defense. They’re 12th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.101). They’re also sixth in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.027). Overall, this is just a very good defensive team, and DeMeco Ryans should have his guys ready to go here. This is the ultimate chance to make a statement, as it’s a home game against an elite team.

With all of that in mind, the best play to make on this game might be the Under. It might be scary to go Under on Lions games, but they have actually gone Under in half of their games this season. Meanwhile, the Under is 7-2 in the nine games the Texans have played this year, and it’s 4-0 in their home games. On top of that, the Under is 7-4 in the games that Detroit has played against teams with winning percentages between 60% and 75% under Dan Campbell. It’s also 8-3-1 in the 12 games that Houston has played against teams with winning records under Ryan.

Lions vs. Texans Player Props

Joe Mixon Over 18.5 Rushing Attempts (-115)

In the five full games that Mixon has played this season, he has rushed at least 24 times in four of them. He has also done so in three consecutive games. This offense has been built around Mixon pounding the rock and attempting to tire out the opposing defense. I don’t see that changing here, especially with Mixon having fresh legs. The Texans played the Jets in the Thursday night game last week, so Mixon will be ready to go here. And as previously mentioned, Houston’s best chance of winning this game is by running the ball to keep the Detroit offense off the field. That’s why it’s a little hard to imagine Mixon not rushing at least 19 times here. The only thing that would change that is the Lions jumping out to an early lead and forcing the Texans to throw. But that’s not how I see this game playing out.

Lions vs. Texans Pick

While I’m terrified of going Under on a game with Jared Goff and his elite group of weapons playing indoors, it feels like the only way to go here. These are two very good defensive teams, and the Texans aren’t playing well enough offensively to try and hold their own in a shootout. That said, Houston will try to play the ball-control game and rely on its defense to give Stroud a chance to win it late. And in the end, that should result in a game that is a little lower in scoring than expected.

Lean: Under 49 (-109)

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