Longshot NFL Future Plays:

We are in the final days before the NFL season starts on Thursday night! That also means this is our last chance to find some longshot value in the NFL futures markets before the games start to impact the odds. Before the season kicks off on Thursday, here are some of the futures I’ve bet for the upcoming NFL season.

NFL MVP

Quarterbacks have won this award in 15 of the last 16 seasons, so unless someone has an outlier of a season, it usually goes to the best QB. So unless we are looking to play short odds, we’ll need to find that outlier. 

 

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I asked Caesars to put up odds on Taysom Hill for MVP and Offensive Player of the Year and I plan on betting at least $500 on each of those when they go up, hopefully later today. More on Taysom Hill below, but last season, Hill set career highs with 114 touches and 692 yards from scrimmage. It’s a very long shot, but I’d like to get a big number on him early and see how the Saints use him.

Offensive Player of the Year

The award for the best non-QB. There is nothing here I am particularly attracted to in this market. I suppose I’d bet Christian McCaffrey +950, but I wouldn’t be excited about it. The guy I DO want to bet isn’t even listed, so I’m probably throwing money away. No play here yet, but I am looking to add Taysom Hill when I see his number.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

The quarterbacks are going to be popular here again. None of the WRs have value at low numbers. I’d need at least 40/1 on Malik Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. to even consider them. Unfortunately, unlike MLB futures markets, these have more attention paid to them. In a sense, they’ve been “solved.” You can pick off stray numbers from slow books, but we have a pretty good idea of who the top talents are already.

It is important to factor in playing time. Although this is a quarterback-heavy award, I am interested in Rams running back Blake Corum at 60/1 (FanDuel). The Rams have an improved OL, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Corum gets most of the carries. With the news that Kyren Williams is returning punts, I think it’s clear who the Rams think their RB1 is.

Pick: Blake Corum 60/1 (Fanduel)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

There are three players under 10/1, and they’re all DE/edge rushers. We saw last year, voters go with the top picks over the most production. I would like to bet on Jets defensive back Qwan’tez Stiggers, but I haven’t seen odds posted in too many places, which is probably a bad sign. However, he’s a rare/unique case. Stiggers never played college football, playing in the Fan Controlled Football League, a 7-on-7 league that allowed fans to participate in play-calling by voting on a mobile app. His play caught the attention of Toronto Argonauts scouts in the CFL, and he was invited to training camp, made the team, and ended up winning CFL Most Outstanding Rookie in 2023 with 53 tackles and five interceptions in 16 games. This led to an invite to the East-West Shrine Bowl, and the Jets drafted Stiggers in the 5th round.

The downside is that Stiggers is not a Week 1 starting DB and will likely be on special teams early in the year. Stiggers is talented. Winning DROY would be unprecedented, but so would getting drafted by an NFL team after playing zero downs of college football.

Pick: Qwan’tez Stiggers 200/1 at DraftKings

NFL Comeback Player of the Year

After Joe Flacco won the award over Damar Hamlin last season, the NFL had to come out and clarify what this award is for and that voters should take the voting more seriously and not embarrass the Associated Press or the NFL more than they already do.

Pick: Aaron Rodgers is the favorite at +175. It’s his award to lose. Coach of the Year

I like Sean McVay at 30/1. I think the Rams are going to be better than expected this year.

How is Andy Reid 60/1? Didn’t the Chiefs just win back-to-back Super Bowls? How does Andy Reid have the same odds as Dennis Allen? I had to look up what team Dennis Allen is the coach of. I have to bet this on principle.

I don’t like Jim Harbaugh as the favorite. I think the Chargers are, at best, a wild-card team and more likely to miss the playoffs in some incredible Chargers fashion. I like Sean Payton at 25/1 and the Broncos to improve this year more than the Chargers.

Pick: Sean McVay 30/1

Most Rushing TDs Season

I think there’s a world where the Saints finally realize Taysom Hill is a red zone weapon and try to get the ball in his hands. I’d prefer a rush + receiving TD prop for Hill, but I’ll settle for 250/1 for rushing only.

Last season, Hill set career highs with 114 touches and 692 yards from scrimmage. If those numbers increase, there could be something interesting here. Since 2018, Hill has appeared in 96 games for the Saints. He has received 10+ touches in 15 of those games, and the Saints have gone 13-2. He might see action at fullback, tight end, in the slot and outside receiver. He can also line up at running back, and the Saints still have quarterback run plays for him. I also read that Hill can squat 685 pounds. I would bet all sorts of Hill props if they existed.

I don’t think it’s fair to compare Hill to Shohei Ohtani because it’s not fair to compare anyone to Ohtani. Paul Horning of the Green Bay Packers would be a better example. He won the 1961 MVP as the Packers’ halfback and kicker.

Pick: Taysom Hill 250/1

For more NFL Week 1 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 1 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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