During the NFL and college football season, one of the most profitable markets that I have consistently been able to beat is the division and conference winners. This week, my model keyed on a couple of teams that have value, so let’s take a better look at the current situations and see if we can find a couple of bets.
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AFC South
According to my model, we are in for a two-team race in the AFC South: Jacksonville (-145) and Tennessee (+240). I have Jacksonville winning this division right around 62% of the time which would put them closer to the -180 number. The key here is the entry point. Before the season started, the Jaguars were -155 to win the division, so we are getting a slight discount on the preseason number. When I am betting on these markets, I want to look ahead and make sure that I am timing up my bet to get the best number. Since the Colts and Texans are long shots and double-digit underdogs this week, I am only going to focus on the top two.
The next four games for the Titans are at the Browns, Bengals, at Colts, and Ravens. Over that four-game stretch, Tennessee has an expected win total of slightly under two games. They will be underdogs in three of the four games, but the Bengals game should basically be a coin flip and the one game they will be favored in, the Indianapolis game is on the road.
Jacksonville is about to enter one of the better four-game stretches of their season with four straight “home” games. They have Houston, Atlanta, Buffalo, and Indianapolis in the next four weeks. The home is in quotes because both the Atlanta and Buffalo games will be in London. Traveling overseas can be seen as a negative, but this is a trip that Jacksonville has done annually, and the toughest game, Buffalo, is a situational edge for them since they will have been in London for the full week, and Buffalo will have to deal with travel. Their expected win total in these games is slightly below three, but a 4-0 run here would not be all that surprising since they will be large favorites in the first and last game of that stretch, solid favorites vs. the Falcons, and they will have a coin flip game vs. the Bills with a travel advantage.
All the data points to this being the lowest odds we will get on Jacksonville to win the division at any point this season. If we jump into our DeLorean and fast forward to Week 7, a Jaguars team that is sitting at 4-2 (assuming 3-1) with a Titans team chasing at 3-3 (assuming 2-2), then I would have the Jags at close to a -275 favorite to win the division. Now is the time to get involved.
The Bet: Jacksonville -145 to win the AFC South
Bonus NCAA Conference Future Bet: Pac-12
I love this conference—great quarterback play, wonderful home environments and some real bangers. Right now, three teams are considered the favorites with USC, Washington and Oregon all at +320 or less. Utah, Oregon State, UCLA and Colorado are all sub 20-1 to round out a competitive top seven.
With the first week of conference games about to kick off, one team jumps out to me to have some value in this conference and the entry point seems to fit now with three key games happening in conference this week. Before we get into the team, let’s talk about the entry point.
This weekend, Colorado travels to Oregon, Oregon State visits Washington State and UCLA heads to Utah. In each of these games, you will have one of the top eight choices on the board lose. Specifically, if UCLA (6-point dogs) and Colorado (21-point dogs) lose, then you will see a consolidation at the top of the market since people will be less likely to take stabs at larger numbers.
The final game mentioned, Oregon State vs. Washington State, is the other key to the entry point. With Oregon State sitting at 12-1, now is the time to get in. If Oregon State can beat Washington State (they are a 3-point favorite who I have bet already), then the 12-1 number will be in the 8-1 range.
Additionally, the schedule sets up wonderfully for them after this week. They have four tough games left, and three of those will be at home including Utah and Washington. They do travel to Oregon the last week of the season but avoid USC this year. The top four all play each other with a mix of home and road games so it will be impossible for two of them to be undefeated going into the final week. If Oregon State takes care of business this week and at home, they will either be one of two undefeated teams or the only undefeated team heading into the final weekend. At that point, we can buy back some of this bet or let it roll!
The Bet: Oregon State to win the Pac-12 at +1200
