Matt Youmans – NFL Conference Championship Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Conference Championship best bets.
New England (-4.5) at Denver
All eyes will be on Jarrett Stidham on Sunday afternoon, and most of the talk leading up to the AFC Championship Game has focused on the Broncos’ backup quarterback. Stidham is now the starter, of course, and how effective he will be while replacing the injured Bo Nix is the biggest mystery facing bettors and oddsmakers this week.
The oddsmakers made the first move. Denver was projected to be 3-point home favorite against New England with a healthy Nix. Without Nix, the favorite flipped to Patriots -5.5 when Circa Sports and other books opened the line. The next move has been made by sharp bettors who have slowly pushed the number to 4 and 4.5 by Saturday morning.
The betting public typically plays favorites and, according to splits displayed by Circa and DraftKings, around 70% of the bets have been on the Patriots. There is a classic sharp-versus-square difference of opinion on this game, so who’s right and will the number even matter?
The initial 8.5-point adjustment seems out of line considering Nix is not John Elway and Stidham appears to be an adequate backup plan. Nix threw 11 interceptions in the regular season and tossed a pick to a Buffalo defensive lineman in the third quarter last Saturday. Nix eventually led the Broncos to a 33-30 victory in overtime before being declared out for the season with a fractured right ankle. Stidham, who did not attempt a pass in the regular season, made two preseason starts in August and went a combined 30-for-38 passing for 376 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions — but that was the preseason and these are high stakes.
Amid all of the Stidham talk, the opposing starting quarterback has been overshadowed, which is probably a positive for Drake Maye and the Patriots. Maye was good enough, yet far from great, in postseason victories over the Chargers and Texans. New England’s defense shut down Justin Herbert in the wild-card round and C.J. Stroud in the divisional round while forcing a total of six turnovers and allowing an average of 9.5 points.
This matchup is not all about Stidham. Denver’s defense has not been elite lately, but one thing the Broncos always do is pressure the passer. Denver has registered 71 sacks this season, and the Patriots have allowed 58 sacks, so how Maye and the New England offensive line handle the pressure is a major key to the game.
I have been higher than most handicappers on both of these teams all season — betting on the Broncos to win the AFC West and the Patriots to win the AFC East — so while I’m not necessarily looking to fade New England, the line adjustment looks out of whack and the number is the most important factor in my opinion.
My expectation is Stidham will play well enough to give the Broncos a shot to win, and I bet Denver +5.5 early in the week. Home underdogs in the NFL playoffs are 9-6 straight up and 12-3 ATS since 2018, and this ‘dog should be live in a game that goes to the wire.
Best Bet: Denver Broncos +4.5
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-2.5)
The first two meetings between these teams were decided by a total of three points, so the rubber match for the NFC title should be another thriller. The Seahawks bring in the league’s No. 1 scoring defense and the Rams boast the No. 1 scoring offense. I usually lean to the dominant defense, but the quarterback edge tilts heavily in favor of Matthew Stafford. It would not be surprising if Sam Darnold turns in the worst performance of the four quarterbacks in action Sunday. Darnold threw six interceptions in two games against the Rams, including four in the Seahawks’ loss in Los Angeles. In last year’s wild-card round, when Darnold started for the Vikings, he threw an interception and took nine sacks in a 27-9 loss to the Rams. Darnold, who committed a league-high 20 turnovers in the regular season, also has an oblique injury that could compromise his play.
In Week 16, when Seattle pulled out a controversial 38-37 overtime win, Stafford shredded the Seahawks for 457 passing yards and three touchdowns while throwing no picks and taking no sacks. I’m rolling with Stafford and his elite set of weapons — wideouts Davante Adams and Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams — to get revenge. I’ve got a Super Bowl ticket on the Rams at 30-1 odds, so it makes sense to stick with my preseason pick to win it all.
Bets Bet: Los Angeles Rams +2.5
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