Matt Youmans – NFL Week 10 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 10 best bets.
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Sometimes it seems if the Chargers didn’t have bad luck, they would have no luck at all. As the injuries keep piling up, eternal optimist Jim Harbaugh will be challenged to put a positive spin on things.
The Chargers are decimated by injuries on the offensive line, where starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater are lost for the season, and at running back. Slater was a preseason casualty. Alt, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2024 draft, went down last week and needs ankle surgery. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton, a first-round pick this year, is out about three more weeks with an ankle injury. The support system around quarterback Justin Herbert is collapsing and dramatically changing the offensive game plans.
Herbert seems unfazed by it all as he makes appearances around town with his Hollywood girlfriend, but the Pittsburgh Steelers plan to wipe the smirk from his face when the teams meet Sunday night in Los Angeles.
After a two-game losing streak, the Pittsburgh defense bounced back in a big way last week by forcing six turnovers and getting five sacks in a 27-20 victory over the Colts. The Steelers still were not that impressive on the offensive side, however, as the ground game managed only 1.7 yards per carry and quarterback Aaron Rodgers produced no big pass plays.
Herbert is shouldering a heavy load for the LA offense. He was the team’s leading rusher in last week’s win at Tennessee while also taking six sacks. The Steelers know exactly who they need to attack, so T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith will be in hot pursuit of Herbert all night.
Steelers coach Mike Tomlin came up short in the home ‘dog role against the Packers on a Sunday night two weeks ago, but I’ll bet he makes good on this opportunity. Tomlin is 63-36-3 ATS in his career as an underdog, including the upset of Indianapolis.
Considering the Chargers don’t deserve any credit for home-field advantage in this game, the line has looked too high at 3, a number still available at DraftKings. Most books in the market dropped to 2.5 late in the week.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +3
New Orleans at Carolina (-5.5)
It’s still difficult to truly believe in Bryce Young and the Panthers even after they stunned the Packers at Lambeau Field. Young passed for only 102 yards and the Carolina defense did not force a punt in the game. Now comes the role reversal. The Panthers are favorites for the first time after being underdogs in the first nine games. Carolina is 0-10 straight up in its past 10 tries as a favorite over the past four years. The Saints are ugly ‘dogs, but divisional underdogs usually hang tough in these types of games, as the Raiders did Thursday at Denver. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough was not bad in his first start and he should be better this week.
Best Bet: New Orleans Saints +5.5
New York Giants at Chicago (-4.5)
Because the Bears rank No. 2 in the NFL in rushing offense (144.4 yards per game) and the Giants are getting gashed by the run, this appears to be a bad matchup for the road ‘dog. Expect the Giants to put up a fight, and their defensive front will be a big reason. The key to disrupting the Chicago offense is to put pressure on quarterback Caleb Williams, something the Giants are more than capable of doing. The Bears needed a last-minute miracle to win at Cincinnati, running their total of lucky wins up to three. The Giants have been unlucky, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in games at Dallas and Denver. Jaxson Dart is a confident rookie quarterback who will have a shot to win this one in the fourth quarter.
Best Bet: New York Giants +4.5
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco
Mac Jones passed for 342 yards and made few mistakes when the 49ers beat the Rams in overtime in Week 5. Christian McCaffrey was a major weapon for Jones by totaling 139 yards (82 receiving and 57 rushing). Matthew Stafford is in a groove and the Rams are rolling, but this line looks high and a strong trend says to take the other side. In the past 14 meetings between these teams, the underdog is 13-1 ATS, including an 8-0 mark for 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan.
Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +4.5
For more NFL Week 10 best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
