Matt Youmans – NFL Week 11 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 11 best bets.
Kansas City (-4) at Denver
A division leader with the second-best record in the NFL is a home underdog Sunday, and there’s a search party out looking for anyone willing to bet on the ‘dog. There will be a few takers on the Broncos this weekend, but not many, and that’s all because of their recent poor offensive performances behind struggling second-year quarterback Bo Nix.
Denver boasts an elite defense and an outstanding offensive line, but Nix has not been passing the eye test. The Broncos (8-2) are riding a seven-game winning streak that seems overdue to end when they host Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-4) in an important AFC West clash. A loss would drop Kansas City 3.5 games behind the Broncos.
The Chiefs have won three of their past four and are off a bye, so coach Andy Reid has the situational advantage and Mahomes owns a major edge over the opposing quarterback. Mahomes has nine touchdown passes in his past four games, and Nix was lucky to put 10 points on the board against one of the league’s worst defenses his last time out.
If you made a list of the five ugliest games in the NFL this season, the Broncos would appear twice — a 10-7 victory over the Raiders on Nov. 6 and a 13-11 victory over the Jets on Oct. 12 — but at least they have won the ugly ones.
Nix is slumping as a passer, going a combined 34-for-65 for 323 yards and three touchdowns with three interceptions in the past two games. He has looked even worse than those numbers. Nix has made key plays as a runner, and the Broncos will need to run the ball effectively to have a shot to win, but that will be more of a challenge after leading rusher J.K. Dobbins was ruled out Friday with a foot injury.
The public will be all over the favorite, laying 3.5, and the betting splits will be lopsided in favor of Kansas City, so typically, that’s a strong argument for taking the other side. Contrarian thinkers and pros will be tempted to play Denver +4, and I’m tempted to do that too.
The Broncos rank third in the league in scoring defense (17.3 ppg) and the Chiefs rank fourth (17.7), so I’ll expect a low-scoring game and play the total.
Best Bet: Chiefs-Broncos Under 45
Green Bay (-7) at New York Giants
A coaching change could be a boost for the Giants, who snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in games at Chicago, Dallas and Denver to get Brian Daboll fired as coach. The quarterback switch is not necessarily a positive, because rookie Jaxson Dart had been hot prior to suffering a concussion, but the move to Jameis Winston as the starter and the move away from Russell Wilson is a good thing. While Wilson has appeared hopeless, Winston will cut it loose and show the potential to make plays. Green Bay’s offense bottomed out by averaging 10 points in recent home losses to Philadelphia and Carolina, and Jordan Love had more than one touchdown pass only once in the past five games. The Packers are 2-1-1 on the road, losing to the Browns, tying the Cowboys and barely beating the Cardinals. In the Love era since 2003, the Packers are 0-7 ATS as road favorites of 3.5 points or more.
Best Bet: New York Giants +7
The Week 11 card is one of the toughest of the season for me and it was difficult to find five plays to commit to for the Circa Million and Westgate SuperContest. The good news is I advanced in Circa Survivor by putting all entries on the Patriots on Thursday night.
My leans for this week: Bengals +5.5 at Pittsburgh; Jaguars +3 vs. Chargers; Rams -3 vs. Seahawks; Browns +7.5 vs. Ravens; Lions +3 at Philadelphia.
For more NFL Week 11 best bets, visit the NFL Week 11 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
