Matt Youmans – NFL Week 14 Best Bets:
Here are my NFL Week 14 best bets.
Houston at Kansas City (-3.5)
Even the haters must admit the NFL playoffs would be much better with the Chiefs in the party. Patrick Mahomes is still more than capable of sparking a rally, especially in a year when there are no dominant teams and the postseason race will be wide open.
However, the window is closing on Kansas City, which has dropped three of the past four and appears as mediocre as its 6-6 record. Each game from here on out will have a playoff feel for the Chiefs, who need to run the table to ensure a postseason spot or at least go 4-1 to have a shot. That stretch run starts Sunday night with a visit from the Texans, who are in a tight division race and also need to continue stringing together wins.
Houston’s top-ranked scoring defense (16.5 ppg) is not going to play dead for Mahomes, but I would rather bet on him than against him in these situations with his back to the wall. He will have to watch his back in this matchup because the Chiefs’ injury-riddled offensive line could be a big problem against the Texans’ pass rush.
There’s a fear factor in betting against Mahomes, but the same is not true of Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud, who has only 11 touchdown passes in nine games and was not sharp in last week’s win at Indianapolis. Stroud missed three games with an injury and last recorded a touchdown pass on Oct. 26.
The Texans are in a situational disadvantage playing back-to-back road games, and this will be their first of the season in cold weather. Teams playing a road or neutral-site game the week before going to Kansas City to face Mahomes are 2-21 straight up — and the only quarterbacks to win in this situation have been the Bengals’ Joe Burrow and the Bills’ Josh Allen.
The quarterback matchup is a mismatch and I’m siding with Mahomes in a high-stakes game. While the line is 3.5 at most books, Circa Sports is offering -3 (-125).
According to ESPN Analytics, the Chiefs will have a 55% chance to make the playoffs with a win Sunday, but only a 12% shot with a loss. Don’t barbeque the Kansas City postseason hopes yet because its schedule is manageable with home games remaining against the Chargers and Broncos and road games against the Titans and Raiders.
Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3 (-125)
Seattle (-7) at Atlanta
There is a lot to like about the Seahawks, but the quarterback is an exception. Sam Darnold tossed out a dud last week, passing for only 128 yards and taking four sacks against Minnesota’s blitz-happy defense. The Atlanta defense ranks second in the league in blitz rate. This should be an ugly game, and a focus of the Falcons’ offensive game plan will be for Kirk Cousins to dump short throws to running back Bijan Robinson. It’s tough to love this play, though I do trust the top two handicappers in the Circa Friday Football Invitational — Jason Jarvis and Chris Fallica both made the Falcons their best bet on the weekend card.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +7 (-120)
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-6)
It’s obvious the Steelers have few redeeming qualities. Pittsburgh’s defense was bulldozed last week by the Bills, who rushed for 249 yards, while graybeard quarterback Aaron Rodgers played poorly and responded by throwing some teammates under the bus. But the Ravens are a mess too, and Lamar Jackson has been part of the problem. In his past three games, Jackson completed 55% of his passes with no touchdowns and three interceptions while taking nine sacks. In regular-season meetings between coaches John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin, the underdog is 24-7-3 ATS. This rivalry often comes down to a field goal, and the Steelers do have a quality kicker in Chris Boswell, who’s one of the best in the league.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers +6
Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6)
Are the Bengals (4-8) about to make an improbable run in the up-in-the-air AFC North? Probably not. But with Joe Burrow back and a defense showing some improvement, Cincinnati is catching a second wind. Burrow was hot on Thanksgiving, passing for two touchdowns in a 32-14 win at Baltimore. He connected with Ja’Marr Chase seven times for 110 yards, and now wideout Tee Higgins is returning from a concussion. This will be the first time since Week 2 that Burrow, Chase, Higgins and running back Chase Brown will be on the field together. The Bills are getting the Bengals at the wrong time, so Josh Allen will need to work hard for this win in what should be a shootout.
Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +6
For more NFL Week 14 best bets, visit the NFL Week 14 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
